A Bad Dream Come True

Koichiro Asakai, Japan's former Ambassador to Washington, used to have what he called a "recurring nightmare." It was that he would "wake up one glorious morning to find that the U.S. had recognized Communist China, having given Japan no advance notification." Three weeks ago, when Richard Nixon told a startled world that he intended to visit Peking, the unexpected announcement proved a bad dream indeed for Japan's Eisaku Sato. Coming as it did without any prior consultation and so little advance notification as to be humiliating, it left the 70-year-old Premier hurt, resentful and in a state of acute domestic embarrassment.

Sato was upset less by the substance of Nixon's announcement than by the manner in which it was delivered. Increasingly in the last year or so, his government has been accused of excessive subservience to U.S. interests. Sato's standard riposte is to point to the close ties and constant cooperation between the two governments.

Gratitude. Until now, Japan has maintained a two-China policy, resolutely refusing to grant diplomatic recognition to the Communist regime. In part this stems from U.S. pressure, but it also reflects a feeling of gratitude toward the Chiang Kai-shek regime, whose magnanimous treatment of the defeated Japanese after World War II was in marked contrast to that meted out by the Soviets and Mao's guerrillas.

This spring, with the opening rally of Ping Pong diplomacy, Sato found himself under tremendous pressure to make a move toward China. Yet Sato decided to play a waiting game, figuring that the U.S. would undertake no major initiatives without consulting him.

As it turned out, Sato learned of Nixon's announcement just three minutes before it was broadcast. In part, that was due to delays in transmitting and decoding messages. Whatever the explanation, Sato was stricken. To reporters, Sato wondered how "Nixon could do a thing like this." Sato realized that Washington had been cautious for fear of a leak, but for the Japanese Premier that was scant consolation.

There is no doubt that Japan will eventually recognize China. "The main thing," says Tokyo University Professor Shinkichi Eto, "is not to do anything that irritates Peking." To that end, Japan Air Lines and the Nippon Steel Corp., the country's largest steel producer, last week boycotted economic conferences with Taiwan, and five Japanese shipping lines decided to stop serving Chiang Kai-shek's island. Although two-way trade with Peking was less last year than with Taiwan ($825 million v. $955 million), it is a rare Japanese businessman who does not relish the prospect of 800 million potential consumers.

Sato is unlikely to preside over the rapprochement with China since he plans to retire before his term expires in October 1972. Nixon's move could even advance his resignation. Whoever Sato's successor may be, one thing is sure: Japanese foreign policy will be progressively more independent of the U.S. from now on.

Aware of the depth of Japan's bitterness, some U.S. officials are looking for opportunities to make amends. One such will occur next Sept. 27, when Emperor Hirohito will touch down in Anchorage, Alaska, en route to a state visit to Europe. It will be the first time that a reigning Japanese ruler has ever set foot on foreign soil and, as one U.S. diplomat puts it: "The highest American official on hand to greet him had better be more than the Governor of Alaska."

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