Paradise Lost

Once upon a time, even after the idyllic years of Anna and the King, Thailand was a faraway paradise called Siam. Its marketplaces floated on canals, and its rice fields stretched to the horizon. When someone felt troubled, his friends were likely to tell him, "Mai pen rai," which means, "Well, never mind."

Then came the war in Viet Nam. Thailand's pastoral peacefulness vanished as seven airfields for warplanes were built, and hotels for G.I.s on leave were thrown together. Since 1950, the U.S. has funneled some $3 billion into the economy --mostly during the war years. On top of that came some $260 million in other foreign capital, largely from multinational corporations. Office buildings went up everywhere. Most of Bangkok's famed canals, or klongs, were filled in, paved and made into roads.

Yankees Go Home. Now, however, Thailand's economic climate is turning out to be misty and clouded. The economy is troubled by dropping prices and softening demand for some of its main export items, including tin and rubber. Rice exports, the mainstay of the economy, have been especially poor, largely because Asia's "green revolution" has made rice producers out of countries that formerly were importers. Thailand, under the spell of Mai pen rai and the war boom, failed to diversify its economy. In consequence, the country has a bulging rice stockpile and growing trade deficit.

The number of G.I.s arriving in Bangkok for R.-and-R. furloughs has fallen by nearly half since early 1970. Desperately searching for any business at all, many of the city's R.-and-R. hotels have shifted from daily to hourly rates. At some, curtained-off parking stalls hide the license plates of their embarrassed clientele. U.S. aid and foreign investment in Thailand have declined markedly. In Bangkok's center, a ten-story office building completed more than a year ago has only four tenants, all on the tenth floor. Many internationally owned hotels, including the new Sheraton and the Dusit Thani, show 20% to 40% occupancy rates.

Few Thais seem genuinely concerned about their plight. Neon signs still blaze brightly, and the crowds seem as frenetic as during the days of the boom. But the signs of economic decay are all about. Here and there, a bar or restaurant closes and does not reopen. "We must change our attitude of complacency and extravagance," says Renoo Suvarnsit, secretary general of the National Economic Development Board.

Needless Delay. Still, the attitude of Mai pen rai persists, and it is not confined to businessmen. In June, Conoco Oil sank a test well in the Gulf of Siam to see if reports of oil sources there were accurate. A discovery could help revive the Thai economy, but the government's cumbersome bureaucracy barely seems interested. It has delayed interminably in setting regulations for offshore drilling, and other oil companies are unwilling to commit capital without them. As a result, portable oil rigs, which were destined earlier for Thai offshore exploration, have now been moved to other potential boom spots, notably Indonesia and Malaysia.

In the past, when Thailand's role in the war guaranteed a steady inflow of money, bureaucratic lethargy was tolerable. Even corruption did not prove too great a drain. No longer. Having opted for a modern economy, Thailand needs a new sense of purpose before anything like the good old days will return.

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