Moscow Makes a Move

Israel's Foreign Minister Abba Eban is a judicious diplomat with a passion for linguistic precision. Thus, when Eban last week told 40 visiting U.S. rabbis that he "would not be surprised" if formal relations between Israel and the Soviet Union were to resume "in the near future," there was reason to believe that he was not prattling idly. At the same time, Western diplomats talked about a visit to Tel Aviv and Jerusalem earlier this month by a Soviet journalist who has served in the past as a kind of ambassador without portfolio for Moscow. The ostensible reason for his trip was medical treatment, but he arrived looking quite healthy and spent a week talking with Israeli officials about the ramifications of re-establishing diplomatic relations.

Other Russians with the same sort of quasi-official authority have been making similar soundings in other capitals recently. In Washington, the correspondent for Israel's influential newspaper Ha'aretz has suddenly become the lunch companion most in demand among Soviet journalists. Around the table, the conversation turns inevitably to the same subject: the chances of resuming diplomatic relations, which were severed by Moscow at the climax of the 1967 Middle East War. To calm Russia's Arab allies, Soviet officials at the United Nations denied last week that any soundings were being made at all. Actually, probings have progressed to the point where a formal Soviet-Israeli meeting will shortly take place.

Sending Signals. Israel is more than amenable to bringing a Soviet ambassador back to Tel Aviv.*The government, Eban said last week, is "ready for any proposal and willing to have these relations take any form the Russians suggest." Israel has been sending out other signals to indicate its receptiveness. The conviction of Soviet Jews in Leningrad and Riga on skyjacking charges brought vigorous protests from Israel; the trial of nine other Jews at Kishinev last week on similar charges was met with official silence. "We've been castrated and we do not know why," said one Israeli official who had been orchestrating the anti-Russian propaganda protests.

When Premier Golda Meir attended the Socialist International convention in Helsinki last month, she passed up the opportunity to introduce a number of resolutions in support of Soviet Jews that she had been expected to put forward. There has also been an abrupt cutback in the activities of panels organized in the U.S. and Europe, with Israeli help, to call attention to the predicament of Russian Jews. A number of such panels have been canceled.

Broken Promise. The Soviet overtures toward Israel appear to be part of a pattern. Stung that the U.S. had maneuvered itself into the position of the indispensable middleman in Middle East peace negotiations, Moscow is anxious to demonstrate that without its participation and blessing, any moves toward an Arab-Israeli settlement are futile. U.S. officials agree that without the Soviets, further peace talks are pointless. In fact, at a suitable time Washington intends to invite the Soviets into discussions on reopening the Suez Canal. Israel, far more worried by Soviet military moves than by any the Egyptians might make, is extremely anxious to get a pledge that Russian personnel will not cross the canal into Sinai if the Egyptians are allowed to do so. Washington intends to demand such a promise as Moscow's ticket for admission to the negotiations.

Renewed Trade. The U.S. and Israel would probably both be leary of any Soviet pledge, however, no matter how strong it appeared. Last August, when a cease-fire was going into effect on the Suez Canal, Soviet Ambassador Anatoly Dobrynin visited the State Department with what diplomats call an "oral note" endorsing the cease-fire and military standstill in the canal area. First he read the English translation of the note; then he handed the note itself over to top State Department officials. "You will get the Nobel Peace Prize for this," Dobrynin told the State Department officials. Yet even as the cease-fire went into force, scores of Soviet SA-2 and SA3 antiaircraft missiles were being trundled into the Canal Zone on trucks and installed in position.

A resumption of Israeli-Soviet relations would diminish the polarization that has developed in the Middle East. It would have a number of other benefits as well. Trade between Israel and Russia ended, at Soviet insistence, during the 1956 Middle East War and was never resumed. After the Six-Day War, the East bloc countries, with the exception of Rumania, broke off relations with Israel and officially suspended trading. Some quiet, unofficial exchanges have continued, but these are negligible.

Formal recognition would probably result in renewed trade and an expansion of cultural relations. It would also help the 3,000,000 Jews still in Russia. Cynics in Israel point out that more Jews have emigrated since 1967 than before that time. Nevertheless, an Israeli embassy in Moscow would have strong emotional appeal for Soviet Jews--as it did in Mrs. Meir's day as Israel's first emissary to Moscow. When she appeared at High Holy Day services in 1948, a crowd of nearly 50,000 cheered wildly.

For the Soviet Union, the resumption of relations would be beneficial too. The Russians have armed and equipped most Arab armies, but the U.S. can still maneuver better because it maintains relations with both sides. By starting to deal with Israel again, the Russians can scotch the current idea that Cairo can deal only through the U.S. if it expects to get concessions from Israel. An embassy in Tel Aviv would also provide the Russians with better intelligence on Israel itself, although in the past such Soviet reporting has not al ways been exact. In May 1967, for instance, the Soviets alerted Egypt wrongly that Israeli troops were massing on the Syrian border.

Economic Aid. In a harsh column in the semi-official daily Al Ahram last week, Editor Mohammed Hassanein Heikal observed that "the U.S. is not in a position to exercise pressure on Israel, either because she does not want to or because she is unable to." This line is undoubtedly also being stressed by Soviet diplomats in Arab capitals. The implication is that while Washington is unable to exert pressure, Moscow may soon be in a position to do so.

To reassure the Arabs while making moves toward Israel, the Soviets have been not only delivering guns but also buttering up politicians from Cairo to Damascus. The Soviet-Egypt treaty of friendship, which will be formally signed this week, has been followed by lesser concordats elsewhere. One was signed in Damascus last week, obliging the Russians to provide more economic aid for Syria. In Baghdad, a protocol was signed pledging Russian aid in developing Iraq's North Rumaila oilfields and improving irrigation on the Euphrates River.

* Once there, he would first have to find a new embassy. The old one, a five-story building on the edge of town, has been rented out as an old people's home.

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