That Other Presidential Election

A CRUCIAL event in the sequence of U.S. withdrawal from Viet Nam will take place later this year: the South Vietnamese presidential elections in October. How these elections are conducted, 13 months before the U.S. chooses its own President, will tell a great deal about the extent to which democratic institutions have begun to take root in South Viet Nam. The balloting will also offer a firm indication as to the next government's chance of survival after the Americans have gone home.

Consistent Critic. There were disturbing indications last week that President Nguyen Van Thieu and his supporters have not fully grasped these facts. As expected, Vice President Nguyen Cao Ky announced that he would oppose Thieu for the presidency. A few days later, Thieu urged Ky to resign from office immediately and declared: "I have never before heard of a country where a Vice President so consistently criticized the President and the government's policy." Retorted Ky: "I was elected by the people in 1967 and not by President Thieu. So to whom should I send my resignation?"

In the meantime, Thieu's supporters were at work in the National Assembly pushing through a law that will make it difficult for anyone to challenge the President. Last December the Lower House of the Assembly passed a bill stipulating that a presidential candidate must have the signatures of either 40 Deputies and Senators or 100 provincial councilors. It was generally assumed that under such a system Thieu, as the powerful incumbent, would win the support of the majority of legislators and councilors; the popular Major General Duong Van ("Big") Minh, another candidate, would corner most of the others; and Ky would be crowded out of the race. But the Senate subsequently defeated the bill. Most political observers figured that Thieu. sensing widespread opposition, would not try to override that defeat by again muscling the measure through the Lower House, where a two-thirds vote would override the Senate rejection and make it law.

The observers underestimated the Thieu forces' proclivity for strong-arming the opposition. As the elections near, there have been a number of examples of such tactics. Ky was recently locked out of a hall where he was scheduled to speak, and 23 of the last 25 issues of his newspaper, the Lap Truong, have been seized. A prominent anti-Thieu Deputy, Ngo Cong Due, was arrested for striking a provincial councilor who spat beer in his face.

Thus, when the Lower House met last week to reconsider the election bill, tempers were already high. Opposition Deputies taunted the Thieu forces, claiming that the President was buying votes for as much as 700,000 piasters ($2,545). In an effort to force a roll-call vote, Ky Supporter Nguyen Dae Dan leaped to the rostrum, brandished a hand grenade and threatened to pull the pin. Dan was talked into giving up the weapon, and next day, despite his theatrics, the Assembly passed the bill, 101 to 22.

Safe but Humiliating. Some political experts believe that the new law will effectively eliminate Ky from the race. Not the cocky Vice President. "You'll see whether they can prevent me from running," he said. His calmness, in fact, led to speculation that he and Big Minh may have reached an agreement that would somehow permit both men to run for office.

What is particularly puzzling is why Thieu felt it necessary to use such extreme pressure against his opponents. It is true that he was chagrined at receiving only 34.8% of the vote in the 1967 election, an unimpressive mandate for a wartime President. But his reelection in October is regarded as virtually certain. Strong-arm tactics may merely encourage Big Minh and perhaps even Ky to withdraw from the race, leading to an unopposed run for the presidency by Thieu. That would be safe but humiliating for anyone trying to bill the election as a triumph of democratic forms. There was speculation that the outcry against the new law may yet lead Thieu to modify it or veto it--and then present himself as a champion of democracy.

Fair Fight. As an apparent indication of Washington's concern, U.S. Ambassador Ellsworth Bunker invited Ky to lunch last week and reportedly urged him to remain in the race, assuring him that the U.S. desired a fair fight. But many Vietnamese and Americans alike wonder whether that is really what Washington wants. They are deeply concerned that the U.S. has become over-identified with Thieu. Accordingly, four former AID employees have launched an intensive lobbying campaign in Washington to reinforce U.S. neutrality during the Vietnamese elections. They advocate creation of a U.S. congressional commission to "observe and study" U.S. involvement in the elections. They also urge that Ambassador Bunker, who has worked closely with Thieu, be brought home during the campaign.

It is hard to imagine, however, that such gestures could drastically alter the impression in South Viet Nam that Thieu is Washington's favorite. Last year, after all, Richard Nixon described Thieu as one of the "five or six greatest statesmen" in the world today. No matter how neutral the U.S. appears, Thieu is not likely to let the voters forget that overblown paean.

Unnecessary Advice. Thieu has already begun his re-election campaign. Last week, with the diplomatic corps in tow, he paid a flying visit to Vietnamese troops of the 21st Infantry Division in the waterlogged U Minh forest, one of the most impregnable Viet Cong strongholds until ARVN troops began a campaign to reoccupy it six months ago. Thieu assured villagers: "Our troops will stay on here now for a thousand years to ensure your security." At an anniversary ceremony for the division, he cut the huge birthday cake with a sword. "We don't use swords to make wars any more," beamed Thieu, "just to cut cake." The division commander, Major General Nguyen Vinh Nghi, thanked the President and urged him "to continue to steer the national boat." It was advice that Thieu is obviously chafing to accept.

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