Election Preview

The second presidential election in South Viet Nam's history is still five months off, but the selling of the candidates is already well under way. In the old imperial capital of Hue last week, President Nguyen Van Thieu stood at smiling attention in a packed reviewing stand as he presided over a parade celebrating South Viet Nam's "glorious victory" in Laos. In Saigon, meanwhile, his Vice President and chief rival, Nguyen Cao Ky, was putting on a show of his own. "You ask why we did not have a victory parade after our successful campaign in Cambodia last year?" he chortled during a talk at a welfare workers' school in Cholon. "We did not have to, you know, because it was a real victory. As to why we had a victory parade in Hue for the recent campaign in Laos, I think you should ask the President."

For good measure, Ky jeered that the country has become "a rotten boat with a deceptively good coat of paint. The men who steer the boat," he added, "are unfaithful, disloyal, ungrateful people."

It was easily Ky's most sulfurous performance since 1968, when the U.S., in the shaky days after Tet, began pressuring the cocky pilot-politician to maintain at least a semblance of harmony with Thieu. But plainly Ky considers himself grounded no longer. In recent weeks, he has opened up on corruption ("beyond control"), on the Laotian operation ("our Dienbienphu"), on Vietnamization (Saigon's U.S.-supplied warplanes are suitable only "for women"). Richard Nixon's withdrawal program? Only last fall, Ky had been scoffing that a fixed pullout date "doesn't make any sense," but last week he called for total U.S. withdrawal by "the end of 1972, or better, 1973."

Not a Snowball's Chance. The date that really interests Ky is, of course, Oct. 3, 1971--election day. Ky has often said that "I'm not a good No. 2 man for anyone." He would plainly relish being the flamboyant No. 1 again, as he was from 1965 until the election of 1967, when the U.S. and the generals in Saigon coaxed him into running as Thieu's Vice President. But the power of American political persuasion is receding along with the American presence in South Viet Nam, and Ky is once again striking out on his own. In fact, he has no alternative. "From the vibrations I get from the palace," says one Western analyst, "there is not a snowball's chance in hell of Ky running with Thieu."

Thus the immediate prospect is for a two-way race. Later on, perhaps some time this summer, a third candidate is likely to emerge: popular but painfully hesitant Duong Van Minh. leader of the 1963 coup that toppled the Diem regime. Strong in Saigon, in Hue, in central Viet Nam and with the militant An Quang Buddhists. "Big Minh" has already staked out a position well to the left of Thieu; he has indicated that he would not be averse to striking some sort of accommodation with the Communist insurgents in the future. When and if he ever gets moving, Minh is expected to run much stronger than Ky, who styles himself "an ex-hawk turned dove" these days but is still basically an opportunist in search of a real constituency.

Hands-Off Posture. But can anyone beat Thieu? Probably not, for a variety of reasons. Even if he does poorly in the cities, as he did in 1967, he has enough solid support in the countryside to win going away. As the incumbent, moreover, he has control of press censorship and government radio and TV, plus ready access to U.S. plane and helicopter transport. Another asset is the fact that in South Viet Nam's short experience with elections, voting has come to be viewed as an almost canonical way of registering accommodation with the powers that be. Thus, Thieu has no need to rig the election, though the recent appearance all over the country of Americans taking presidential preference polls has convinced many South Vietnamese that the rigging process is already under way.

Bending over backward to avoid charges of American meddling, Secretary of State William Rogers has ordered U.S. personnel in Saigon to observe "strict neutrality" during the campaigning. But in fact, the U.S. is backing Thieu. And even if the U.S. could adopt a convincing hands-off posture, such a situation would only favor the status quo --which, again, is Nguyen Van Thieu.

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