After the Blackout

The fellow who would walk a mile for a Camel hardly knew what zeal means. Now that cigarette commercials on TV and radio have been banned by Congress, one dedicated smoker has volunteered to walk clear across the U.S. with a Camel sign on his back in order to publicize the brand name. His idea is only one of many received by RJ. Reynolds Industries, the nation's largest cigarette maker. An amateur strategist proposed rigging an airplane with flashing lights that would spell out CAMEL or WINSTON on night flights, and a camera fan offered the use of a device that he said could project the word Winston on clouds or buildings.

Though it is too early to gauge the full effects of the broadcast ad ban, tobacco executives as yet feel no need to resort to such far-out expedients. Under relentless attack from critics, the tobacco industry withstood the 1970 recession better than almost any other U.S. business. New York's First National City Bank reported last week that seven tobacco companies raised their after-tax profits by a total of 19% last year, the second largest gain among 41 industries in the Citibank survey (the leader: amusement companies). The rise stemmed largely from successful diversification that has taken the cigarette makers into products and services as varied as pet food, soap, whisky, watches and shipping. The profit gains also reflected the reversal last year of a three-year drop in per capita cigarette consumption. Average consumption worked out to 4,039 cigarettes a year for each American over 18, or slightly more than half a pack a day, up from 3,993 in 1969. Winston is still the best-selling brand, followed by Pall Mall, Marlboro, Salem and Kool. Regular Camels (there is also a filtered version) are in sixth place, but are expected to decline along with nonfilter brands generally. Filters now account for almost four-fifths of the industry's sales.

Less Switching? John Maxwell, a marketing analyst whose figures are widely accepted in the industry, predicts a further 1% rise in cigarette consumption this year. Tobacco men report that, in the two months since their commercials vanished from TV screens, sales have been stronger than in the same period last year. Philip Morris, Inc.'s cigarette sales in January and February ran more than 11% ahead of a year earlier. Says RJ. Reynolds President William S. Smith, who smokes three packs a day: "I have not felt that broadcast media increased the consumption of cigarettes." It was long the industry's contention that TV commercials mainly induced smokers to switch brands. With their ads off the tube, tobacco men now expect more brand loyalty.

Cigarette foes hope that recent increases in sales will prove to be only the temporary effect of a last-minute TV ad blitz and the flurry of new brands introduced by the industry while commercials were still legal. Dr. Daniel Horn, head of the Government's National Clearinghouse for Smoking and Health, predicts that the broadcast ban will reduce smoking by two major groups: teen-agers and the five to ten million adults who, he reckons, are really trying to quit smoking. About one-third of the would-be quitters interviewed by Horn's group reported that they craved a cigarette after watching a TV commercial. According to his figures, which are drawn from Government-backed surveys, 42% of U.S. men over 21 now smoke, down from 59% ten years ago. "And half of those who now smoke say they want to stop," says Horn.

Some recent federally sponsored research indicates that women have a much harder time than men in kicking the habit. The percentage of women who smoke has declined only from 33.7% in 1964 to 32% now. In all, Horn estimates that of every ten smokers who attempt to drop the habit, four succeed. His surveys indicate that the number of youths aged 12 to 18 who smoke has risen by 1,000,000 in the past two years, to a total 4,000,000, or 15% of that age group. He says that this rise, which exceeded the proportionate increase in the size of the age group, was the result of the now forbidden TV ads.

Blip-Blip, N.C. The anti-smoking campaigners do not intend to relax. They will monitor the screens for any attempt by cigarette firms to slip the names of their brands onto TV. Tobacco and broadcasting executives vow that that will never happen. Last month ABC televised the Reynolds-sponsored Winston-Salem Classic bowling tournament in North Carolina but, except for brief references at the beginning and end, avoided mentioning the name of the event or even where it was being held. Instead, Announcer Chris Schenkel extolled the charm of "the Moravian settlement" in the heart of "the rolling hills of North Carolina." Wallace Carroll, publisher of the Winston-Salem Journal & Sentinel, asked the Federal Communications Commission if his city was henceforth to be known as "Blip-Blip." William B. Ray, chief of the FCC's broadcast complaints division, jokingly replied that the capital of the state (Raleigh) might be known as "simply 'Blip'--after the English explorer, Sir Walter Blip." NBC officials have instructed their Broadcast Standards Department to watch for any reference to cigarettes that would violate the spirit of the ad ban. "That does not mean you will never see another cigarette smoked on NBC," says a spokesman, "but we will be very careful."

TV networks are continuing to air anti-smoking commercials--two a week in prime time on ABC, for example--and tobacco men protest that under the Government's "fairness doctrine," they should be granted air time for reply. Since last November, cigarette makers have had to put on each pack sold in the U.S. a strengthened notice: "Warning: The Surgeon General Has Determined That Cigarette Smoking Is Dangerous to Your Health." Later this year, the Federal Trade Commission is likely to renew an attempt it made last year to force an even more ominous message into all cigarette ads: "Warning: Cigarette Smoking Is Dangerous to Health and May Cause Death from Cancer, Coronary Heart Disease, Chronic Bronchitis, Pulmonary Emphysema and Other Diseases." Tobacco men are also being hit by rising taxes, which now account for 19-c- of the median U.S. price of 39-c- a pack. Last year seven states raised cigarette taxes, and almost every state has a legislator calling for still further boosts.

Closed Circuit. With the broadcast ban, the tobacco companies will save about $250 million annually that they had invested in commercials. They have increased their ads in magazines, especially women's, sports and car magazines. In the strongest new merchandising drive, tobacco men are stepping up their sponsorship of sports events, hoping both to reach the large crowds that attend and to draw some mentions in printed news reports of the contests. Philip Morris will sponsor, among other things, the Powder Puff derby for women air racers. Reynolds is concentrating on auto races in the South, where winning drivers are culture heroes. For example, the annual race that used to be called the Alabama 500 now will be known as the Winston 500; Reynolds will put up $100,000 for prizes and promotion and plans a "parade of stars," including Miss Winston Cup, who will ride around the track in a specially-built "Winston red" Mercury. Lorillard is buying commercials on closed-circuit TV screens scattered around major horse-race tracks. Closed-circuit TV is not regulated by the FCC.

Cigarette men talk confidently of continued diversification and of the expanding demand for American smokes overseas. Despite advertising restrictions in Britain, Italy and elsewhere, cigarette smoking abroad is rising faster than in the U.S.; Philip Morris increased its international sales 18% last year. Most of all, executives feel that smoking has too strong a hold on too many people to diminish quickly. "People enjoy smoking, and they are going to continue to smoke," says Smith of R.J. Reynolds. Cigarette foes cannot yet prove him wrong.

* In ads, Winston has discarded its famous slogan, "Winston Tastes Good Like a Cigarette Should." The new slogan: "Down Home Taste."

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