How Nixon Interprets the Election

LIKE an old coach delivering his half-time pep talk, President Richard Nixon gathered his team round the table in the Cabinet Room last week to reassure them that the 1970 election was no worse than a tie--and that what counts is what happens two years hence, in 1972. The Nixon players came in two platoons: first the Cabinet members and then some 30 top-echelon White House aides. With Daughter Tricia seated beside him, Nixon spent nearly an hour laying down his analysis of the returns. His conclusion: "The election, ideologically, was enormously successful."

In the last two weeks of September, "the social issue dominated the campaign," Nixon said. "Then the Democrats read Scammon and Wattenberg [whose book, The Real Majority, argued that Republicans have understood Americans' desires and fears about law-and-order better than the Democrats], and then Hubert Humphrey wrapped himself in the flag and took off on a fire truck." The Democrats, he said, turned to the economic issue: "This was our low point." That was what sent him off to the hustings. (He called the Democrats' subsequent use of unemployment statistics "a lie.") His staff advised against campaigning, but Nixon felt he had to do battle against the "off-year drag" and the "economic drag" of 1970.

"On Oct. 8, I looked at our polls, polls I had commissioned," the President said. "It was a very black picture. In the Senate, only in Tennessee were we ahead, and there the gap was closing. In every other race we were behind. In Maryland we were behind 60 to 40, in Connecticut by ten points. Prouty was six points behind. Goodell was down the tube." Nixon himself helped to replace New York's Goodell with Conservative James Buckley, and he was pleased with the play he called. He saw victory shaping up for Democrat Richard Ottinger. He sent Quarterback Agnew into the game with new instructions, pulling liberal sympathy votes back to Goodell and leaving the way clear for Buckley's end run. It worked.

Nixon never quite said so, but he clearly felt his own unprecedented campaign effort turned the election around. "We emphasized the peace issue," he said. "The whole secret of any campaign is to talk about your issue. The peace issue was very beneficial." Happily he ticked off the individual races. "In Connecticut, Weicker--I've talked with him--will vote like Dodd. With Buckley, there will be a 180DEG turnaround. The same with Brock in Tennessee and Bentsen in Texas. Taft? Well, it will be much better than with Young." Nixon made a morning-after list of Republican losers whose talents he wants to use in the Administration: it was headed by Clark MacGregor of Minnesota and George Bush of Texas. His Senate summary: "We gained a working majority of at least three. In addition, there's the fallout effect on Senators up for re-election in '72. The changes this year might make some of them read the tea leaves."

As for the House of Representatives: "Ideologically there is no change. We've had a working majority consistently on the key issues of foreign policy and defense. The loss of seats makes no difference." The Democrats, he conceded, "have a right to crow a bit" about the governorships--but he proceeded to play down any effect that Democratic success might have in 1972. "I have yet to see a popular Governor pull in a President," he said. "In 1960 the Republicans had 14 Governors. I carried 26 states --I carried the two biggest with Democratic Governors, lost the two biggest with Republican Governors.* The Governors cannot produce votes for a President--only a machine can. The only machine left is Daley's--and we'll see if we can't offset that with the Ogilvie machine. Sometimes Governors can be a drag in a presidential election. When it's your Governor, they need roads and all kinds of things and then you have to get involved in it. No. Governors by and large in this day and age do not play an important role in presidential politics."

Finally Nixon turned to the future, warming to the prospect. "Now let's look at this election in terms of 1972," The battle is drawn between the President and the Congress. The two key issues will be peace the pocketbook. About the peace issue: the war will be over and we will have peace with prosperity. As for economy, it will be good in with a very strong upturn in 1972. Law and-order will also be an issue to this degree: crime has gone up 150% in the past eight years, but it is now finally beginning to go back down. By 1972 we will have a reversal. We have a remarkable record on the law-and-order issue, with crime legislation, obscenity and narcotics bills. We now have the most effective program to deal with crime.

Even the most detached among Nixon's listeners were certain that the President really believes his chances for 1972 look better than they did before Nov. 3. That, to be sure, was not the estimate of many analysts whom Nixon accused of writing "what their hearts--not their heads--tell them." He closed the meeting with a piece of advice to his team: "If any of you are betting men, you can give your friends in the press odds on the presidential success in 1972."

* Nixon was not quite right. There were 16 Republican Governors in 1960. He carried California, one of the two biggest states with a Democratic Governor, but lost the other, Pennsylvania.

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