The Struggle for the Statehouses

THE glories of being a Governor have largely passed away. No Governor since Franklin Roosevelt has gone on to the presidency; a wise man who covets the White House today aims for the spotlights that play on the Senate. Though the men in the statehouses continue to wield enormous power over patronage and purse strings, their public careers are in constant peril due to the generally parlous condition of state finances and the rising demand for state services.

For all that, the gubernatorial stakes are unusually high in 1970. Governors will be in control as congressional districts are redrawn to conform with the 1970 census data. Thus a big Reagan win in California could translate into as many as ten more Republicans in the House of Representatives when the nation's most populous state is redistricted; a victory in fast-growing Florida is worth perhaps three congressional seats to the party incumbent in Tallahassee next year.

Somewhere to Go. Looking to 1972 and beyond, there are less tangible but equally important White House stakes involved. The Republicans now govern 32 states, the Democrats only 18, and of the 35 being contested this year, 24 are Republican. Therefore, the Republican risk--through simple mathematical vulnerability--is great, and each loss, particularly in key industrial states, will subtract from the organizational muscle that the President will need for his expected 1972 re-election bid. In his concentration this year on the House and, above all, the Senate races, Nixon only belatedly began to lend help to Republican gubernatorial contenders.

As Nixon has the most to lose, so the Democrats have the most to gain --and not merely in numbers. For the Democrats, there are four crucial statehouse elections--those in Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Florida. All are populous states with large blocks of electoral votes, and if the Democrats could capture them, they would have a fresh and formidable base upon which to build for 1972. Democratic hopefuls such as Muskie, McGovern and Bayh would have somewhere to go for funds and for national attention; from these four key states, the shattered Democrats might begin a modest renaissance. If New York could be miraculously snatched away from Nelson Rockefeller, the equation would be infinitely strengthened.

A rundown of these five key contests and three others of special interest: OHIO. In assessing his party's nominee for Governor, an Ohio Republican recently referred to Roger Cloud as "a nice guy, but when he walks into a room, nothing happens." Cloud has walked into a political race where nothing good, from his standpoint, will happen either. Fallout from a state-loan scandal has crippled State Auditor Cloud and the rest of the G.O.P. ticket. At the campaign's outset, Cloud unsuccessfully demanded that two of his running mates, who had accepted political contributions from borrowers of state funds, withdraw. Former Congressman John J. Gilligan, a liberal Democrat, is expected to win easily despite Cloud's needling of him as "Tax-a-billion Gilligan." So heavily do the Republican scandals weigh on Ohio political scales this year that Democrats have a clear shot at control of a vital state. PENNSYLVANIA. Hubert Humphrey could explain the impossibility of shucking identity with an unpopular Administration. An ardent listener would be Lieutenant Governor Raymond J. Broderick of Pennsylvania, who is striving to move up a notch and to dissociate himself from unpopular Governor Raymond P. Shafer in the process. Republican Shafer will leave the state in a fiscal shambles, with new taxes a prospect. The campaign of Broderick against Millionaire Milton J. Shapp, a Democrat, revolves around the problem of where to get the needed revenues, and Broderick begins his speeches by declaring: "I am the candidate who is against a personal income tax." Shapp hinted early on that he was agreeable to such a tax, but the flack was so heavy that he has since vacillated. Shapp's polls show him far ahead, but political experts see the race as extremely close. Hitting hard the law-and-order theme, Republicans will flood the state with brochures claiming that Shapp helped bail out Chicago convention demonstrators, which Shapp denies.

MICHIGAN. Widespread unemployment, in large measure due to the strike against General Motors, has idled 180,000 workers in Michigan. The economic distress is an inhibiting factor in Governor William Milliken's campaign. He was the favorite to win in November until his indecisiveness and the strike combined to boost his opponent, Sander Levin, a former Democratic state chairman. Still, Milliken is a slight favorite--unless popular Democratic Senator Phil Hart has coattails long enough to sweep up Levin.

NEW YORK. For weeks, Democrat Arthur Goldberg's campaign had pleased only his opponents--and New York insomniacs. Attempting to unseat three-term Republican Governor Nelson Rockefeller, the pompous and verbose Goldberg inspired only an apt characterization that is a campaign cliche: "Yesterday I spent a week with Arthur Goldberg." But things began to steam last week as the usually decorous Goldberg responded to a Rockefeller charge with the earthy observation that "Rockefeller is full of bullshit." Pardon? "You can quote me," fumed Goldberg to startled reporters. "I want you to quote me."

Rockefeller had brought Goldberg to a boil by charging that his foe had promised a $70,000-a-year job to a leading New York Democrat in exchange for a Goldberg endorsement. Clearly startled by the fury of Goldberg's reply, Rockefeller said, "I did not mean it in a disparaging or derogatory way."

It was not Rocky's best week. New York Mayor John Lindsay, nominally a Republican, endorsed Goldberg. The action was in part tit for tat, since the Governor had endorsed Lindsay's Republican opponent in last year's mayoralty contest. Lindsay's action came only a day after Rockefeller had advised him to remain neutral.

By his endorsement, Lindsay eased the way toward his own possible switch to the Democratic Party. There his political future might be brighter than in the Republican Party. Lindsay's declaration that he acted on principle and his charge that Rockefeller has drifted to the right provoked a sneer from Rockefeller: "Absurd--a complete distortion and misrepresentation of the facts." The Governor's public display of pique gave currency to the view that for the first time, Rockefeller clearly hears Goldberg's footsteps. Last week Rockefeller produced his own poll, showing him with a slender 2% lead.

FLORIDA. Democratic chances to take over a large state's gubernatorial chair now occupied by a Republican seem unexpectedly bright in Florida. Rambunctious and resilient Governor Claude Kirk split the party when he lured rejected Supreme Court Nominee G. Harrold Carswell into a Republican primary for the Senate, whereas Democrats are displaying uncommon unity behind Reubin Askew, a teetotaling Presbyterian elder whose favorite "hobby," he says, is going to church. Askew accuses Kirk of "government by crisis," inept fiscal management and a 45% increase in property taxes. Kirk's counterthrusts are characteristic: Askew is an ultra liberal and a "Goody Two-shoes powder puff." The race is considered close, win a third. Democrat Dale Bumpers, a Sunday-school teacher and political neophyte who polished off former six-term Governor Orval Faubus in the primary, is conducting a low-key campaign almost as if he were certain of victory. By contrast, Rockefeller is covering the state in jet-powered helicopters and spending money in the Rockefeller manner in a sometimes frenetic bid to stay in office. As Nov. 3 draws near, there appears to be little chance that he will.

CALIFORNIA. The most populous state seems certain to remain the preserve of Republican Ronald Reagan, who has outcharmed, outfoxed and outspent his dogged Democratic foe, longtime speaker of the California assembly, and until he shed 100 Ibs., the "Big Daddy" of California politics, Jess Unruh. Four years ago, Reagan saddled the Democrats with the responsibility for tumult on the campuses, and the saddle--despite four years of Reagan rule--remains firmly affixed to his foes. Although he is way ahead, Reagan warns.his confident supporters that "I don't want to be the Tom Dewey of 1970"--and hits hard. He warns of the "barbarians among us," and invokes praise for the police to "help hold back the jungle and the jungle creatures." He promises to "provide what force is necessary" to keep peace on the campuses. Financially strapped, Unruh has been unable to buy a single television commercial, generates free time for himself by leading cameramen to "news confrontations" on the lawns of wealthy Reagan backers. Painting Reagan as the servant of vested California interests, accusing him of profiteering to the tune of $1,000,000 in a private real estate transaction, Unruh of late has been making waves, none of them powerful enough to engulf the popular Governor.

Broom Wielding. In these and numerous other races this year, the outcome may hinge on quixotic turns. In Texas, bumbling incumbent Democrat Preston Smith was conducting a listless campaign until a broom-wielding student approached him on a speakers' platform at the University of Houston. In Massachusetts, Democrat Kevin White aroused the interest of the electorate not at all until he went into the hospital with a perforated stomach ulcer. Smith is the favorite in Texas, and White's physical and political health are both reported improving.

This file is automatically generated by a robot program, so reader's discretion is required.