A Question of Intentions

From thick forests and plains deep in Prussia to the fog-shrouded Baltic coast, the Warsaw Pact last week began the most massive military maneuvers in its history. A total of 100,000 men drawn from all seven member nations were being deployed under Russian command, in an exercise code-named "Brotherhood in Arms." At the same time, NATO started its biggest war games of the year, also involving 100,000 men, in the eastern Mediterranean area. Code-named "Deep Express," they involve air, land and sea forces from eight Western nations.

Both maneuvers have been long scheduled. But the importance and publicity given them pointed up a troubling trend of stress between the U.S. and the Soviet Union. Behind the trend are two basic elements: Russia's vigorous activity in the Middle East, the Indian Ocean and the Caribbean, and a growing conviction in the White House that Moscow is deliberately testing President Nixon's--and the nation's--mettle. In the Administration's view, the Kremlin is probing everywhere, seeing how far it can get at a moment when the U.S. is intent on drastically reducing its commitments abroad.

Soviet Complicity. U.S. concern began to mount when the Soviets simply ignored U.S. and Israeli outcries over violations of the Suez Canal ceasefire. Then last week Moscow vitriolically denied its role in any violation and accused the U.S. of "unscrupulous distortion of the facts." Secretary of State William Rogers in a press conference expressed strong "disappointment" with Moscow's role in the standstill breach. In unusually blunt terms, he said the Soviets' behavior has raised "some very serious questions about their intentions," and accused Russia of resuming cold war stridency.

Washington believes, moreover, that last month's Syrian invasion of Jordan occurred with Moscow's prior knowledge. Apparently, the U.S. and Israel were prepared to intervene directly when Russia pressed Damascus to withdraw. Two weeks ago, Soviet air controllers in East Germany attempted to close down temporarily two of the three Western air corridors to West Berlin. Besides, East German police repeatedly held up traffic last week along the main West Germany-West Berlin autobahn.

Concerned that Moscow may have been emboldened by his "low posture," Nixon has been going out of his way to pronounce his determination to use U.S. power, where and when necessary. That was his message throughout his European trip, particularly on his visit to the Mediterranean-based Sixth Fleet. And Washington's recent full-scale resumption of arms aid to Greece was prompted by a determination to shore up NATO's southern flank against Russian pressures.

What confuses the current situation is that some positive elements are present. Last week, after months of stagnation, there were slight signs of movement in the talks between the U.S., Britain, France and Russia on Berlin. Next month the Strategic Arms Limitation Talks will resume; in addition, Russian and U.S. space experts will soon begin consultation on cooperative rescue procedures for disabled spacecraft.

Shrouded by Tensions. It was against this mixed background that French President Georges Pompidou began his first state visit to Russia since succeeding Charles de Gaulle. Pompidou was seeking to revive France's Gaullist-inspired role as a bridge between the superpowers. With his Chanel-clad wife, Pompidou was lodged in the Kremlin, a state-visit honor bestowed in recent years only on De Gaulle in 1966. Pompidou was also the second Westerner to be given a tour of Russia's secret Baikonur space center, De Gaulle having been the first. In his talks, Pompidou stressed that France belongs to the Western alliance, while he cautiously supported Russia's proposal for a European security conference to formalize Europe's postwar borders. Washington sees the conference primarily as a Russian move to squeeze the U.S. out of Europe.

This week, when Rogers and Soviet Foreign Minister Andrei Gromyko meet at the United Nations in the first high-level U.S.-Soviet talks since the Middle East crises, their discussions may be clouded by tensions created as a result of recent Soviet actions. Though White House policymakers are pessimistic about the chance of a sudden warmup, they insist that the U.S. will pursue the search for accommodations where possible. The alternative, as Rogers put it last week, is a "no-policy."

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