Is the Rock Still Solid?

Twice the Democrats have tried to pick the lock that Nelson Rockefeller has on New York State's executive mansion, and on both occasions they failed even to get close to the door. This time they chose a man whose stature and credentials in other areas were without equal: Arthur Goldberg, former Supreme Court Justice, former Secretary of Labor, and former U.N. Ambassador. The prominence of the candidates matches the stakes in the race, which go beyond New York's borders and this year's election. Involved are control of the nation's second largest state, a crucial battleground for 1972's presidential election, and a test of ideological trends.

Last June, Goldberg may have seemed the perfect man to halt Rockefeller's march to a fourth term; he seems considerably less so in October. He has just barely managed to stay in close contention. He has been handicapped by factors he cannot alter: a shift to the right in voter sentiment and a personal campaign style that has changed in the course of four months from disastrous to mediocre. But if he does not excite the voters, he clearly gets their respect as he makes his rounds in three-button suit (all buttoned and a flag pin in the lapel) for 18 hours a day.

Court Nostalgia. Transportation, or the lack of it, is one of his big issues and he was giving it a ride on a Westchester commuter train last week in a way that showed both his weakness and his strength. With typical lack of finesse, he approached the riders from behind. But when he got turned around, he lingered for a responsive chat with some, pointing to a broken window ("That's a real danger") and low fences along the tracks ("My grandson could climb that fence"). One man wearing a Rockefeller button grasped Goldberg's hand and said: "You were a wonderful Supreme Court Justice. I wish you had stayed on the court." Goldberg responded: "Sometimes I wish I had too."

Goldberg's campaign handlers have wisely kept to a minimum his set speeches before large groups, where his pedantic delivery is at its worst. The candidate himself has learned to handle his handicap with humor. He describes a scene where he asks his wife if he really is as stuffy as pictured. She replies: "I don't think so, Mr. Justice."

Humor is only infrequently heard in his attack on the Rockefeller record. In person and in a series of TV and radio ads, Goldberg presses his message home, charging that the gap between Rockefeller's promises and performance makes his "credibility" a principal issue. The particular problem that has received the greatest attention from both men is one that preoccupies the voters: narcotics. New York City is the acknowledged heroin capital of the nation, and more of the city's teen-agers die from drug abuse than from any other single cause.

"Rockefeller's narcotics program is scandalous," Goldberg says. He has promised to provide treatment within six months for every addict who wants it, and has even said he would walk ghetto streets himself to be sure heroin is no longer being openly sold. Rockefeller candidly admits the seriousness of the situation even while he emphasizes his efforts to alter it.

Almost everything Rockefeller calls a success, Goldberg calls a failure: the state's mammoth building program ("an edifice complex," Goldberg says, borrowing an old sally), environment protection, schools. One of his most effective TV spots is meant to capitalize on voter frustration over mass transportation. Goldberg does not appear in it at all. New York subway riders do, during a typical rush-hour crush, as a voice-over says that Rockefeller claims to have built enough highways to stretch from Albany to Hawaii. The camera dwells on one harassed passenger as the voice says: "But he doesn't want to go to Hawaii, just to the Bronx."

It has impact, but the impact is not felt as often as Goldberg would like. He says that his campaign budget is between $1.5 and $2,000,000, and that Rockefeller will spend ten times that. The Governor's camp dismisses the claim as "pure nonsense," contending that it will spend $6,000,000 at most.

Whatever the amount, the Rockefeller campaign once again is evidence that he is willing to spend whatever it takes to spread his message: "He's done a lot--he'll do more." Both the money and the message show in his highly skillful, frequently shown television ads. One depicts a drug pusher behind bars, put there, the ad says, by Rockefeller. Another shows an audience falling asleep during a lecture on sewage treatment, making the point that the subject is not interesting, just important, and Rockefeller is taking care of it. Rockefeller will soon step up his TV campaign with an altered focus. Instead of defending his record, he will turn on Goldberg, comparing the former Justice's inexperience in state government with his own three terms in Albany.

One asset his money need not buy is his brilliance as a campaigner. As he moves through a crowd slapping backs, pinching biceps, winking, remembering names, he goes with an aura of confident pleasure. He has spent many hours at beaches, plunging into waves and joining impromptu samba sessions. Goldberg has climbed a 42-ft. ladder to be photographed with construction workers; that is apparently as far as he will go in that kind of stumping.

Rule-Book Attack. It may be that part of Rockefeller's confidence comes from the near-flawless campaign machine that gets him to the right place at the right time. His daily schedule includes a notation on the staff's dress for the day. His advance men provide the hat and Rockefeller produces the rabbit: when he unexpectedly confronted a picket line of firemen recently, his aides produced a public-address system and Rockefeller, who did not cross the line, made a speech that drew applause.

It is possible that neither Goldberg's rule-book attack nor Rockefeller's standard defense hold the key to the outcome. That may be in any one of several imponderables. Among them:

P:The Governor is a liberal by G.O.P. standards, but this year he has moved to the right, promising more police on the streets and longer prison terms for campus bombers. The gambit is aimed primarily at winning over conservative Democrats, generally identified as Irish and Italian. But will he gain more than he loses among liberal voters?

P:It was Rockefeller who got on the phone to Washington, without apparent success, when Vice President Spiro Agnew attacked Republican Senator Charles Goodell. What Rockefeller may fear is that Republicans who defect to Conservative Senate Candidate James Buckley may also vote for Dr. Paul Adams, running for Governor on the Conservative line. Four years ago, Adams got more than half a million votes.

P:Rockefeller has normally done well with Jewish voters but he cannot hope to compete for that bloc successfully with Goldberg, who is Jewish. He is apparently trying, however. In a recent interview he traced his family tree and said, "My ancestors may have been Jewish. We're really not sure." Rockefeller has also done well in the past among black voters, but this time a highly regarded black state senator, Basil Paterson, is Goldberg's running mate.

P:Though it is difficult to relate directly to state policies, the economy may be a vital hidden issue. Goldberg has had to suffer the discomfort of having the state's A.F.L.-C.I.O. endorse the multimillionaire Rockefeller while rejecting a former union lawyer and Secretary of Labor. But Goldberg may wind up with the votes of many union members and other workers nevertheless. The General Motors strike has idled 17,000 in the state; on Long Island--a Rockefeller bastion in his first three races--unemployment is at 5.8%, the highest in New York.

Those are just some of the factors that are giving pause to political dopesters normally facile with predictions. As usual, Rockefeller, by design, started as the underdog. Now he is beginning to attack; it remains to be seen whether Goldberg has a campaign weapon he has kept hidden. He will need a big one to end Rockefeller's twelve-year reign in Albany.

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