The Middle East: Persuasion Amid Peril

THE most hopeful factor in the Middle East crisis is the attitude of the two superpowers that stand behind the antagonists. Last week, in unmistakable words and diplomatic signals, the U.S. and the Soviet Union told their respective allies that it was time to stop stalling and get on with negotiations.

The strongest words were those of Soviet Party Chief Leonid Brezhnev, who publicly threw Russia's support behind the peace efforts. "It is very important for the peaceful forces in the Middle East not to let the initiative slip away and not to allow the foes of peace to blow up the agreement or use it to cover up their aggressive designs," Brezhnev declared in a nationwide television broadcast. He strongly backed the Arab cause, but warned the guerrillas to refrain from troublemaking. Said Brezhnev: "What is needed is not new provocations and subterfuges designed to circumvent or violate the ceasefire agreement, but an honest observance of the agreement reached."

Brezhnev's remarks came three days after a startling suggestion by U.S. officials that Washington might be willing to join with the Soviet Union in policing the Middle East ceasefire. The idea of a joint Soviet-American guarantee for a negotiated settlement was offered by Administration leaders at San Clemente during a background briefing of Western editors and publishers. The U.S. suggestion drew immediate and harsh criticism from Arab and Israeli diplomats alike. Administration officials hastily emphasized that it was nothing but speculation and that the Russians had not even been consulted about the idea. Nonetheless, some diplomats interpreted the suggestion as an American trial balloon for an imposed settlement in the event that the present cease-fire erupts into a new round of fighting.

The concern of the superpowers reflected the fragility of the Middle East situation. Early last week indirect United Nations negotiations got started under the coldly evenhanded direction of Gunnar Jarring. In the first meeting, Israel's U.N. Delegate Yosef Tekoah reiterated his country's complaint that the Egyptians had broken the terms of the 90-day cease-fire by placing Soviet SAM-2 and SAM3 missiles in position on the west bank of the Suez Canal. Then, in the next breath, he startled Jarring by announcing that he was flying home that very night for consultation with his government.

Bitter Disappointment. The Israeli delegate's sudden departure was caused by growing tension in the coalition government of Golda Meir. The Israelis are deeply concerned about the U.S.'s relaxed stance toward the alleged Egyptian violations of the ceasefire. Israeli Premier Golda Meir declared on television: "Had we known that things would develop as they have, with the Egyptian contravention of the ceasefire, we would not have agreed to enter into the peace talks. We have been bitterly disappointed." Israel Galili, the Minister without portfolio who is Mrs. Meir's closest adviser, told TIME Correspondent Marlin Levin: "The relations between Israel and the U.S. today are marked by tension and worry. If the U.S. does not see to it that the elements of the cease-fire are fulfilled, the conditions may be created --God forbid--that would cancel our decision to accept the cease-fire."

Debate Over Talks. In secret Cabinet sessions, Defense Minister Moshe Dayan has urged that the Israelis call off the talks until the Egyptians carry out all provisions of the truce. So far he has been overruled. But Dayan, who had earlier visited Israeli soldiers in trenches along the Suez with Chief of Staff Haim Bar-Lev, is known to be considering resigning if the talks continue under the present circumstances. "He is debating with himself," a friend said last week, "over whether to continue in the Cabinet." A recent meeting between Dayan and Opposition Leader Menahem Begin threw a scare into the ruling Labor Party leadership. Such a threat to her coalition has caused Mrs. Meir to adopt a stiffer line in the face of Washington's pressure. After a heated debate, her advisers decided last weekend to continue with the talks but to delay Ambassador Tekoah's return to New York until late this week or even later.

Egypt's President Gamal Abdel Nasser also faces some opposition, but he has managed to open negotiations with the Israelis without forfeiting his prestige with the Palestinian commando organizations. At his seaside retreat in Alexandria, Nasser last week received Al-Fatah Leader Yasser Arafat, whose visit was interpreted as a gesture of continued support. The general speculation in Cairo is that Arafat and other moderate fedayeen leaders will avoid an open break with Nasser until the Egyptian President can determine whether progress can be made in the New York talks.

Publicly the commandos still violently oppose the negotiations. Nonetheless, some observers believe that moderate elements of the fedayeen might yet be induced to accept a peaceful settlement that would recognize Israel's right to exist. In the meantime, the guerrillas do not appear to have sufficient strength to jeopardize the peace talks on their own, but they are continuing to cause trouble. The Israelis reported killing 14 marauding guerrillas last week.

Israeli Probe. U.N. negotiators still hoped that Israeli Ambassador Tekoah would return to New York this week or soon thereafter for the resumption of the Jarring talks. When he arrives, he is expected to ask Jarring to relay to Egypt and Jordan a set of questions that will seek to probe Arab intentions: Are the Arabs ready to live at peace with Israel, and by what kind of arrangement are they prepared to secure that peace? If the Israelis receive what they regard as satisfactory answers to their general inquiry--and if the fragile cease-fire does not fall apart in the meantime--the stage will be set for serious negotiations.

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