Cambodia: Struggle for Survival

NOW that all U.S. troops have left Cambodia, a thorny question remains: Can the country long survive without their presence? In the past four months, the 40,000 North Vietnamese and Viet Cong troops in Cambodia have spilled out of the sanctuaries, seizing more than half of Cambodia's countryside and attacking at will over much of the rest (see map). It is debatable whether the U.S. invasion provoked their campaign or whether the Communists would have begun swallowing big chunks of Cambodia anyway in the confusion that followed the ouster of Prince Norodom Sihanouk. What is abundantly clear is that the Communists pose a lethal challenge to the wobbly anti-Communist government of Premier Lon Nol. Unless Cambodia receives a quick transfusion of aid, South Viet Nam could well find itself flanked by another Communist government.

Hollow Victory. What does Cambodia need to survive? Says one U.S. diplomat: "Time, more than anything else." The current monsoon season gives an added advantage to the Communists, who live off the land and move on foot through the oceans of mud that bog down army vehicles. If Lon Nol can hang on until the rains end in September without losing much more territory, he will have achieved a significant victory.

The victory will prove a hollow one, however, unless the Cambodians make dramatic progress in equipping and training their army. At present, about a fourth of the country's 100,000 regular troops have no rifles at all, and small-arms ammunition is in such short supply that raw recruits sometimes get a grand total of five practice shots before they are sent on active duty. Moreover, says one diplomatic observer, "The Cambodians must learn that you don't kill a fly with a cannon. When a hundred Viet Cong appear, you don't send a regiment to chase them out."

Ruling Authority. Politically, the government has profited from a wave of Khmer nationalism that swept Cambodia after the overthrow of Sihanouk, who was put on trial in absentia last week on charges of "endangering the security of the Cambodian nation." But Lon Nol, whose regime came to power with the support of the urban middle class and intellectuals, has yet to win widespread loyalty in the countryside. Already the peasants in some contested areas reportedly have given food to the Communist guerrillas. Critics in the National Assembly charge that the government has been too slow in re-establishing its presence in areas retaken from the Communists.

Last week, partially in response to such criticism, Lon Nol shuffled his Cabinet, adding eight new men and ending the unpopular practice of allowing major members of the government to head several ministries. Ruling authority in Cambodia continues to reside with him and Deputy Premier Sirik Matak.

Massive Sweeps. Cambodia's survival will require many other drastic changes, including the rescue of its stricken economy. Rubber exports, which account for one-fourth of the country's foreign exchange, are down to a trickle, and will soon halt altogether. Rice exports, which account for more than half, are likely to drop by nearly 60%. Still, Cambodia's most immediate needs are military. So far help has come almost entirely from the South Vietnamese. More than 25,000 ARVN regulars remained in Cambodia after the U.S. departure, conducting massive sweeps north, northwest and northeast of Phnom-Penh in the hope of driving Communist forces farther away from the capital. To help overcome Cambodia's lack of disciplined fighters, Saigon last week announced that over the next three months it will train 10,000 of its neighbor's troops at three camps in South Viet Nam.

The U.S. has endorsed this effort, though it could overtax Saigon's own war effort if carried on too long; U.S. sources note that Hanoi has been sending as many as 3,000 trucks a week down the Ho Chi Minh Trail despite the monsoons, possibly for a major attack somewhere in the northern half of South Viet Nam. For its part, Washington has provided Cambodia with a fairly modest military-aid program of $7,900,000; it will try to increase that to perhaps $25 million over the next six months by diverting unused funds from other aid programs so as to avoid having to request the money from a hostile Congress. The U.S. is also continuing to fly so-called interdiction bombing missions over Cambodian territory. Beyond these limited measures, Nixon endorsed a program of regional cooperation among Phnom-Penh's neighbors, who, he said, have "a stake in Cambodian neutrality and independence." Cambodia, in short, is destined to become the first test for the Nixon Doctrine, which encourages Asians to solve Asia's problems.

Fatal Flaw. It promises to be an acid test. At the annual meeting of the Southeast Asia Treaty Organization in Manila last week, Washington's allies showed little enthusiasm for any regional plan. Thai Foreign Minister Thanat Khoman told TIME Correspondent Herman Nickel that his nation might decline to provide any substantial assistance unless its own security were "directly threatened." Some U.S. officials are convinced that Thanat is merely trying to squeeze more aid funds out of Washington; so far Bangkok has "loaned" Phnom-Penh some river-patrol craft, as well as five T-28 propeller-driven bombers, but it has not come across with the troops that were promised. In part, Thanat's comment reflects the anger of U.S. allies in Asia over Senate passage of the Cooper-Church amendment (see NATION). However, it also points up what could prove a fatal flaw in the Nixon Doctrine: Asian countries are simply unlikely to come to one another's aid in what the U.S. might deem an emergency.

Without cooperation from its neighbors, Cambodia is "just like Laos," said a longtime SEATO observer. "Lon Nol will survive if the Communists let him." With help, the odds could change drastically. As a White House official noted last week, there are 30 million Thais, 17 million South Vietnamese and 7,000,000 Cambodians; that collective force faces 20 million North Vietnamese who already are fighting in two other places and who are at the end of a 600-mile supply line. So far, however, those figures have not added up to much help for Cambodia in its struggle for survival.

This file is automatically generated by a robot program, so reader's discretion is required.