Too Many Doctors

After five years of hard work at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, David Ernst, 26, will get his Ph.D. in August and emerge as one of the best-trained young physicists in America. Unfortunately, that may not be enough to assure him job security in his field. When Ernst recently sought a post at Ohio's Heidelberg College, which was looking for a physics teacher to enlarge its four-man department, he might have expected little trouble in landing it. But this year, despite his impeccable credentials, Heidelberg turned him down. There were 361 inquiries about the job.

All over the U.S., a chronic shortage of college teachers has turned into a surplus. At the annual convention of the American Historical Association last winter, 2,200 applicants squabbled over 402 openings--down from 550 the year before. At the University of Massachusetts this year, 1,000 would-be English teachers applied for eight jobs. One small West Coast college received 750 inquiries about a position in the English department, despite the fact that no opening existed. In Dayton, Texas (pop. 3,000), where the local high school has only 455 students, Principal Kenneth Almond has received job inquiries from 15 Ph.D.s in physics at universities across the country. "And yet," says Almond, "we teach only one elementary physics course to an average bunch of students."

Pecking Order. In the post-Sputnik era, Ph.D.s were often touted as national heroes--proof that Americans could outlearn Russians. Now they seem to be multiplying faster than jobs geared to their skills. This year U.S. universities will produce 29,000 Ph.D.s--3,000 more than last year, and more than three times the number graduated just ten years ago. Yet M.I.T. Physics Professor Lee Grodzins estimates that the entire country has only 3,000 good academic research or teaching posts in physics. Meantime, graduate schools are turning out 300 new Ph.D.s in physics each year. To some extent, overproduction is inevitable. The postwar "baby boom" that helped send college enrollments soaring in the middle '60s is now working its way through the graduate schools. Much of the glut can also be blamed on the academic pecking order. As bachelor's and master's degrees became more common, academics insisted that doctorates were essential for college teaching, and as degree inflation mounted, dozens of small colleges yearned to become "universities" by taking on expensive graduate programs. The war in Viet Nam also sustained weak graduate schools, since graduate students were at first deferred.

Exciting Nonliving. With large classes and still growing enrollments, many colleges could use more of the Ph.D.s queued up at their doors--if they had the money. But Government aid has not kept up with skyrocketing costs, retarding faculty growth at many schools, and forcing some to cut their staffs. It is true that junior colleges and even high schools may benefit by landing jobless Ph.D.s. But many of the best men will not accept lower salaries or lesser schools. Some Ph.D.s may quit teaching.

Things are especially hard for many in the humanities, trained solely for teaching. Scientists, who could once fall back on industrial jobs, now face fewer prospects. Tight money has forced companies that once hired Ph.D.s to make do with lesser--but less expensive--master's and bachelor's degrees. And women, who earn 12% of the nation's doctorates but land far fewer of its best teaching jobs, may find the going even tougher.

To ease the strain, some Stanford departments plan to reduce their graduate enrollment; other schools are expected to follow suit. In high-energy physics, says M.I.T.'s Grodzins, "the number of new job openings is slightly greater than zero." He still tells new students that the subject is "very exciting," but warns: "Don't expect to make a living at it."

Others predict that the academic recession will foster intellectual dullness on many campuses. As they see it, conservative administrators are likely to cow unorthodox graduate students and young teachers who lack tenure. Those who speak out may be forced out. Still, job insecurity may also curb the intellectual arrogance that afflicts some graduate students. "I've rarely seen such deference from Ph.D. candidates," says Harvard Sociologist Seymour Martin Lipset. "They're becoming obsequious again." For his part, M.I.T. Physicist Brian Schwartz suggests that all graduate school catalogues should bear a new legend: "Warning: graduate education may be hazardous to your career."

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