Respite in the South, Pressure in the North

As long as the Communists enjoyed full use of their Cambodian sanctuaries, they were able to keep persistent pressure on the entire lower half of South Viet Nam. To be sure, North Vietnamese and Viet Cong forces remain a menace in the two southern military regions. But there is growing evidence that the area from the Camau Peninsula in the southern tip of the country to the first slopes of the Central Highlands has begun to benefit from the allies' sanctuary-scouring raids.

Rocket and mortar attacks have become almost a rarity. In the Mekong Delta (IV Corps), enemy gunners during the month of May loosed not a single round of 122-mm. rocket fire (v. 25 rounds normally) and only two rounds of 107-mm. rockets (v. an average of nearly 100). Says one U.S. officer: "I don't know whether the enemy is short of ammunition, but he certainly seems to be firing less of it."

Nationwide, the number of contacts between small allied and Communist units had fallen nearly 16% by the end of May, four weeks after the forays into Cambodia began. In part, that is because the monsoons are beginning. But there is also reason to believe that the Communists are being forced to revise their entire strategy for conducting the war. "Captured documents say that they now realize they must move all their stuff from the North down through Laos and what a big job that will be," says a U.S. officer. "With the rainy season coming on, they are going to have a helluva time sustaining themselves in the lower half of South Viet Nam."

Problem Areas. The job is less complicated in the two northern corps areas, which are still vulnerable to attack from Communist-held sanctuaries in northeastern Cambodia and southern Laos. In recent weeks, groups of North Vietnamese regulars have raided the picturesque lakeside resort of Dalat in the Central Highlands three times. Their most recent attacks were aimed at the airport, the National Military Academy and a government-owned villa where Vice President Nguyen Cao Ky frequently vacations. After killing at least 17 South Vietnamese, the Communists holed up in three Roman Catholic institutions and pinned down government forces from sharpshooter vantage points for most of a day before slipping away early last week. Though U.S. advisers were infuriated by the escape, it appears that the South Vietnamese let the Communists get away rather than risk destroying the town. Nonetheless, the attack was the most successful ground assault on a major city in two years. President Nguyen Van Thieu was sufficiently angered to order the immediate firing of the responsible province chief, Colonel Lo Cong Danh (whose name means "the road to glory").

The Communists struck an even more serious blow at an isolated ARVN artillery base named Tun Tavern, on a mountain ridge 21 miles south of the demilitarized zone. North Vietnamese regulars, who apparently entered through Laos, overran the outpost, killing 50 and wounding 119. The South Vietnamese, with the help of U.S. advisers, recaptured the base, but the attack underscored the blunt admission of a U.S. officer: "I Corps and II Corps are our problem areas now." In I Corps, the number of small-unit contacts in recent weeks has averaged more than the total in all the other military regions combined.

Even if fighting does suddenly flare in the north, however, a prolonged respite in the more populous south would be a major step in containing the war. Reportedly, Thieu wants to withdraw a sizable number of his forces from Cambodia--though not all--by June 30 because he is preparing an accelerated pacification program for the south. Among its main objectives is the destruction of the North Vietnamese regiments now operating in the Mekong Delta--and Thieu knows that he will need as many troops as possible for that difficult task.

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