Ten Days--or Ten Years

"The peasants are befuddled," a French businessman said in Phnom-Penh last week. "Prince Sihanouk had been increasingly and-Viet Cong. Now he joins with the Viet Cong to kill Cambodians. I strongly doubt that the peasants will support him, even if he were to return to a 'liberated zone' in the country." That appraisal is shared by many observers, Western and Cambodian. If it is accurate, it may mean a considerably longer life for the regime of Premier Lon Nol than seemed possible a short while ago.

Partly Illusory. The chunky 56-year-old general, who led the group that ousted Norodom Sihanouk as Cambodia's chief of state two months ago, has grievous problems nonetheless. Outside the now embattled sanctuaries.

Communist forces seem ubiquitous and unbeatable in the entire third of the country east of the Mekong River. Last week they launched a major thrust west of the Mekong as well, when a force of up to 600 Viet Cong and North Vietnamese seized the ferry crossing at Neak Luong, then drove up densely forested Route 1 to within 30 miles of Phnom-Penh.

Despite the apparent menace, however, there are no hard signs yet that the Communists really intend to attack the capital. Moreover, their successes are at least partly illusory. The North Vietnamese and Viet Cong forces have been operating in small bands, occupying a town or blocking a road for a few days, then disappearing when challenged by sizable force. Still, Lon Nol is taking no chances.

In Phnom-Penh, soldiers were installing Soviet-made 122-mm. artillery pieces to ward off any thrust from the south. Other troops, including elements of a 3,000-man contingent of Cambodian mercenaries who had fought with American Green Berets in Viet Nam, mounted a counterattack on Neak Luong. The tough, red-scarfed mercenaries, who were airlifted into Phnom-Penh last week to back up Lon Nol's weak 35,000-man army, expect to link up with South Vietnamese forces that were closing in on Neak Luong at week's end.

Pink Prince. In the political struggle for the loyalties of the nation's 7,000,000 people, Lon Nol is at least holding his own; at best, he is solidifying his position. He has, in fact, received an unexpected assist from Sihanouk. In Peking last week, the deposed Prince formally set up his own Cambodian government in exile, complete with a twelve-member Cabinet and a platform ineluding items like abolition of polygamy. His self-styled New Royal Government of National Union won instant recognition from several Communist countries, prompting Sihanouk to quip that, as a French-educated aristocrat and heir to a 2,000-year-old monarchy, he could not be a Red but only a "pink Prince." Cambodia's predominantly rural people may not be all that amused. They are not so much anti-Communist as anti-Vietnamese, and Sihanouk's increasing dependence on Hanoi can only weaken his residual popularity.

Playing on this sentiment, Lon Nol's government is continuing its strident campaign against the 500,000-member Vietnamese community. The drive has proved to be the new government's strongest--if crudest--rallying point. At present, Vietnamese residents of the capital are allowed to leave their homes only between 7 a.m. and 11 a.m.

Turning to Terror. The harsh anti-Vietnamese campaign has provoked outrage abroad, and Lon Nol has undertaken some more positive, if less publicized, measures to reinforce his position. As a result of his emphasis on maintaining basic services, garbage is collected regularly and, except in Communist-controlled areas, the rudimentary telephone system is still functioning. The value of the riel has slipped from 63 to 80 to the U.S. dollar since the coup, partly because the Communists have been creating havoc with rubber exports. Yet the economy remains basically stable, and a record rice crop is expected.

Lon Nol's government has a couple of other things going for it. Because efforts to create a popular "Sihanouk Army" through persuasion have got nowhere, the Communists are increasingly turning to terror--collecting "taxes" and conscripting young villagers as porters under threat of death. Such tactics are bound to win new supporters for Lon Nol among the peasantry.

The government has also benefited from stories of the under-the-counter arms trade with the Vietnamese Communists that flourished during Sihanouk's rule. A group close to Sihanouk's fourth wife Monique profited for years by delivering Communist arms and supplies from Cambodian ports to Communist border sanctuaries. The arms arrived in innocent-looking crates or bore phony papers addressing them to the Cambodian army. Sihanouk's inability or unwillingness to halt the traffic helped bring about the Prince's downfall in March.

The government's chief hope for a long life, of course, is that the war in the sanctuaries will exhaust the Communists. "Keep the Viet Cong busy for ten more days," Phnom-Penh urged its troops last week. "Keep them from eating and sleeping, and in a little while they will be at the end of their strength." At about the same time, however, Sihanouk was saying in Peking that he would continue to fight, "even if it takes 10 or 20 or 30 years."

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