The Electronic Summer

When Secretary of State William Rogers announced last week that the U.S. had denied Israel's request for 25 Phantom jets and 80 Skyhawks, the Middle East reacted with something less than stunned surprise. The Arabs were unhappy because, it was only an "interim" decision and because Rogers had promised that the U.S. would "provide additional as well as replacement aircraft promptly if the situation requires." Israel accepted the decision with unexpected restraint, perhaps because Rogers sugar-coated the "no" with surplus-food agreements and credits on earlier aircraft purchases that could total $150 million. Israel's response was so muted, in fact, that it disappointed some U.S. diplomats who had hoped Israeli anger would persuade the Arabs of Washington's evenhandedness.

Sam Song. Israel's equanimity was one indication that the decision was a sensible one. Even without the extra jets, Israel's air superiority puts it in good shape for what Defense Minister Moshe Dayan predicts will be "the electronic summer." This is the anticipated confrontation between Egypt's Soviet-supplied radar and surface-to-air missile systems, SA-2s and SA-3s, and Israeli jets loaded with sophisticated electronic countermeasure equipment.

Apparently, the electronic summer is getting off to an early start. Israeli pilots, flying the Phantoms provided earlier by the U.S., have learned to bomb from low ranges at which they can scarcely miss. They have also learned, like U.S. pilots in Viet Nam, to recognize the "Sam song"--the change of pitch in tracking signals that indicates that a highflying surface-to-air missile is pursuing them. The Sam song means that the time for escape and evasion has come. Russia, however, is now supplying Egypt with the more advanced SA-3, a smaller, solid-fuel missile designed to hit low-level planes.

Israeli intelligence reported that Russian planes have been arriving at Cairo airport in recent days at the rate of seven an hour--presumably bringing SA-3s as well as Soviet technicians to operate them. Ten to 15 SA3 sites have already been detected around Cairo, Alexandria and the Aswan High Dam. Israel's tactic at the moment is to ignore distant installations but to attack possible sites within 15 miles of the Suez Canal. While bombing such sites last week, Israeli planes were intercepted by Egyptian MIG-21s. Four MIGs were downed in one running dogfight and five in another, the biggest bag for Israel's air force in six months.

The electronic summer in the air will probably be accompanied by a far less sophisticated slugging match on the ground. Israeli and Syrian patrols battled once more last week on the Golan Heights. While Fedayeen Leader Yasser Arafat was off in Peking seeking aid, his guerrillas were busy fighting--but not against Israel. They shot up a Lebanese army truck, wounding three soldiers, and kidnaped 15 customs men. It was reportedly the first time the army had been directly involved in the crisis.

No Change of Heart. The U.S., which once hoped to provide a workable blueprint for Middle East peace, is now primarily concerned with restoring a cease-fire before the whole area explodes. To do this, Washington counts on continued negotiations between the U.S. and the Soviet Union, the principal patrons and weapons suppliers of the belligerents. Last week Soviet Ambassador Anatoly Dobrynin called briefly at the State Department after Rogers' announcement. Apparently the meeting did not indicate any change of heart on the part of Moscow, which has peremptorily rejected every peace proposal offered by the U.S. "I have no reason to believe there is any change," said a State Department spokesman after Dobrynin's departure via a basement exit to avoid inquisitive newsmen.

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