The Shark's Fin

"When the students look at the government, they are oppressed by the feeling that the nation's resources are going to waste, or worse, are being cornered by a few people. What they see is in large measure true."

Those surprisingly candid words appeared last week in a statement by Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos. They convey a sudden new respect for the student demonstrators who have marched and rioted in Manila's streets practically every week since late January. The determined student protesters have triggered the Philippines' worst political crisis since the island nation achieved independence in 1946.

Last week, in their second assault since January on the U.S. embassy, the college youths were joined by some unemployed slumdwellers and by scores of Manila's striking "jeepney" drivers. The demonstrators were dispersed by wicker-shielded police before they reached the embassy. Three days later, student leaders angrily rejected Manila Mayor Antonio Villegas' plea for a ban on demonstrations and announced that they would conduct organized protests against the government at least once a week.

As Marcos has begun to realize, student violence is only the visible shark fin of a dangerous, antigovernment mood. It feeds partly on old resentments, real and imagined, against American business domination of the Philippines, and partly on some specific grievances against the President. Filipinos are increasingly cynical about Marcos' 2,000,000-vote margin of victory in last November's presidential campaign--a feat that they quite reasonably believe could only have been achieved by widespread vote buying. They fear, moreover, that his pre-election spending on roads and school buildings has brought the nation to the brink of bankruptcy. The peso, recently freed to find its own level on the world currency market, has shrunk in value from 26-c- to 14-c-. As a result, Filipinos face the unhappy prospect of rising inflation and rising unemployment.

No Packing. In common with rebellious youths elsewhere, the Philippines' protest leaders seem to be more united on what they oppose than on what they support. About a dozen student political organizations, ranging from far left to near right, agree on little beyond the need for some sort of reform. The most influential leftist group is the Kabataang Makabayan (Patriotic Youth League), whose Marxist-oriented leaders are accused by Marcos of being Maoists. It claims a membership of some 27,000 students, workers and peasants. The largest of the moderate groups (50,000 members) is the National Union of Students of the Philippines, which is heavily influenced by liberal thinkers within the Roman Catholic Jesuit order.

Despite their greater numbers, the moderates have been overshadowed by the Molotov-cocktail tactics of the far leftists. At the same time, advocates of peaceful change have scored one vic tory that could prove far more important in the long run. As a result of the student campaign, coupled with pressure from the powerful Catholic bishops, Marcos promised not to pack next year's Constitutional Convention with his own party's supporters. His pledge was especially significant, since many reformers see a new constitution as "a ray of hope for restructuring the political system," in the words of Father Pacifico Ortiz, the prestigious university president who advises the moderate Union of Students.

Ortiz and other liberal Jesuits advocate a "revolution of the heart" that will produce a stronger sense of social consciousness among landowners and businessmen. They believe primarily in orderly change and sponsor teach-ins and college courses in social reform. But they do not object to popular demonstrations, even violent ones, if the Establishment cannot otherwise be moved. More radical leaders doubt that orderly change is likely or that a new constitution will mean much. Says Monico Atienza, secretary-general of the Patriotic Youth League: "A constitution does not precede a new society. It comes after the society has been formed."

Frail Base. It is problematical whether either brand of reformer has the staying power to bring about real change. The demonstrations are likely to lose force when school vacations begin next month. More than half the members of recognized student political groups come from families in the top 3% of Philippine income groups and may prove a frail base for revolution. Their angry protests can nonetheless cause serious trouble for the government. Should their demonstrations get out of hand, a popular revolution would be far less likely than a military takeover.

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