The Numbers Game

Remember how the French reluctantly confirmed that deal for the sale of some jet aircraft, maybe 15 or so, to Libya's new pro-Nasser regime? How Defense Minister Michel Debre later admitted that about 50 Mirage 5 ground-attack planes would actually be sold, but neglected to mention that 30 Mirage IIIE fighter-bombers and 20 Mirage III trainers were also included? How Debre grudgingly revealed two weeks ago that around 100 jets, rather than 50, were involved after all? And how, finally. Premier Jacques Chaban-Delmas soberly declared: "Our compatriots can be sure that any other figure is false"?

Well, here's the latest chapter. Last week a French spokesman announced that the true figure was "closer to 110." For once, the French may have been erring on the high side. According to U.S. officials, France's President, Georges Pompidou, wrote President Nixon informing him that the true, final, no-kidding figure was precisely 108 planes.

But don't go away yet. Foreign sources insist the total deal will eventually involve at least 160 planes. To be sure, the foreign sources happen to be Israelis, whose figure sounds absurdly inflated and seems designed to pry another 25 Phantom jets from the U.S. In the end, the Israelis may have their way. Only a few weeks ago the U.S., long Israel's champion, seemed to be moving toward a more neutral position in the Middle East. Secretary of State William Rogers' peace proposals and Nixon's emphasis on "evenhandedness" underscored the shift. But domestic U.S. reaction to the French numbers game and the harshness with which both Cairo and Moscow rejected Rogers' proposals may now be compelling Nixon to edge back toward the Israelis. Last week, for example, he assured Jerusalem that "we are maintaining a careful watch on the relative strength" of Arab and Israeli forces.

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