Politics: They're Off and Running for 1970

IN a purposely transparent charade, the President invited newsmen into his oval office while he and Texas Congressman George Bush chatted out of ear range. As they shook hands, Richard Nixon raised his voice to say, "I wish you luck." Then the handsome Texan flew off to Austin to announce that he was a candidate to unseat Democratic Senator Ralph Yarborough. No endorsement had actually been made, but the message was clear: Bush was the President's man.

In California, San Francisco State College President S. I. Hayakawa said that he had made up his mind "each way six times," but had finally decided not to seek Republican Senator George Murphy's office. The temptation, he admitted, had been great. "Can you imagine what it would mean," he mused, "to have this state represented by a birthright member of the yellow peril?" In Boston, the surviving Kennedy brother, Teddy, was challenged by former State Republican Committee Chairman Josiah A. Spaulding, who announced his candidacy for Senator from Massachusetts.

Unleashing Agnew. All that activity last week underscored a basic political fact: 1970 is an election year and the stakes are high. Moving uncommonly early, candidates, self-proclaimed noncandidates and coy potential candidates are jockeying for position in the November elections that will serve as the first broad referendum on the Nixon Administration's policies. Republicans are even talking hopefully of seizing control of the Congress for the first time since 1954. But they need to gain an improbable 29 seats in the House to secure a majority; only seven in the Senate would give them a 50-50 tie, which Vice President Spiro Agnew could break in their favor.

Quite by chance, there are seven senatorial seats to be filled for which there are no clear favorites. They include a seat being vacated in Ohio and those now held by Democrats Thomas Dodd in Connecticut, Ralph Yarborough in Texas, Gale McGee in Wyoming, Frank Moss in Utah, Quentin Burdick in North Dakota, and Republican Charles Goodell in New York, who was appointed to Robert Kennedy's seat.

The resurgent Republicans have some reason for optimism. President Nixon has so far skillfully neutralized the most explosive issue--the Viet Nam War--by convincing most of the public that he can successfully turn the fighting over to the South Vietnamese. He is embracing as his own one of the most popular issues of the day: the drive against pollution of air and water. He has comforted Middle Americans with his gradualism on racial issues and tried to assuage their fear of street crimes with the tough-guy image of his Attorney General, John Mitchell. And he has turned a national joke into a potent political asset by unleashing Vice President Agnew.

Pocketbook Protesters. Yet Republican leaders concede that at best their hopes are fragile; they could easily be undermined by events. No one can be certain that the South Vietnamese can handle Communist insurgency without massive U.S. help--and any U.S. re-escalation of the war could trigger a broader public protest than before. Crime, pollution, and deterioration in the quality of urban life are accelerating despite political rhetoric. It will take imagination, painful decisions--and much money--to reverse the trends. The danger of a recession, coupled with inflation, is the biggest threat of all to the G.O.P.'s election strength. Nothing could more readily turn the silent majority into a determined army of pocketbook protesters.

While such national issues broadly influence the dialogue and the fate of the candidates, elections turn mostly on matters of regional interests, party allegiances, and personalities. That is particularly true of the more localized contests for the House. Unless an overwhelming Republican surge develops later, the chance of a Republican takeover in the House is unlikely. While cheering their troops publicly, some top Republican strategists who have examined their strengths district by district concede privately that a gain of 29 seats is almost surely out of reach. They are, however, confident of breaking the traditional pattern that has the President's party losing seats in a nonpresidential election year.

It is in the Senate that Republicans place their greatest hopes. While the factors and faces can change drastically by November, a number of interesting races are shaping up. Among them: OHIO. Democrat Stephen Young, 80, is retiring; two of the state's most popular Republicans are bruising each other in their rush to take his place. James Rhodes, the highly successful two-term Governor, and Congressman Robert Taft Jr., who hopes to follow in his famed father's footsteps, are headed for a punishing primary that only Democrats will enjoy. Despite allegations of misconduct leveled against him by LIFE magazine, Rhodes is no underdog to the stolid Taft. Democrats expect that in their primary, former Astronaut John Glenn's glamour will prevail over Cleveland Lawyer Howard Metzenbaum, a former state legislator. They hope that the internal Republican warfare will damage both Taft and Rhodes enough to offset the fact that Glenn has shown no out-of-this-world abilities as a politician. There is no clear favorite. TEXAS. Democratic Senator Ralph Yarborough should survive a primary challenge from former Congressman Lloyd Bentsen, who is backed by Yarborough's longtime foe, former Governor John

Connally. But the conservative Bentsen will attack Yarborough's liberal voting record and could soften him for the expected race with Republican Bush, whose father Prescott was a Senator from Connecticut. The articulate and conservative Bush will contrast sharply with the rough and folksy Yarborough. A decisive factor in a close election could be the role, if any, of Lyndon Johnson. He has quarreled often with Yarborough but recently has spoken of him with grudging respect. ILLINOIS. Republican Ralph Tyler Smith, appointed to Everett Dirksen's seat, will have difficulty winning on his own against Democrat Adlai Stevenson III. A former speaker of the House in the Illinois legislature, Smith, 54, is far less known than State Treasurer Stevenson, 39, and suffers from a tendency toward vacillation. He managed to antagonize both downstate conservatives and metropolitan liberals by first opposing, then favoring the nomination of Clement Haynsworth to the U.S. Supreme Court. He will also be hurt by Republican Governor Richard Ogilvie's unpopular but necessary tax increases. Unlike his father, Stevenson is abrasive and aggressive, and must convince liberals that he is not too tainted by the lukewarm backing of Chicago Mayor Richard Daley's organization. In the end, Daley may not work hard for Stevenson, but young Adlai is the favorite now. CALIFORNIA. Republican George Murphy is vulnerable because of his age (67) and a raspy voice that keeps him visiting doctors to get statements meant to convince voters that he has recovered satisfactorily from throat cancer. He has also been more hawkish on Viet Nam than many Californians like and has voted against cuts both in taxes and oil-depletion allowances. Already announced against him is Congressman John Tunney, son of the retired boxing champion and one of the most attractive of the many Kennedy-style candidates in evidence this year. Young (35) and athletic, Tunney is less well known than the former actor and has irked liberals by failing to support the grape boycott. Democrat Hayakawa would have been a stronger candidate. CONNECTICUT. Republicans are eager to take on Democrat Thomas Dodd, who was badly hurt by his Senate censure for misuse of campaign funds. No fewer than five Republicans have jumped in or seem to be waiting for the right moment. There is more immediate interest in whether Dodd can survive a primary challenge from two doves, Edward L. Marcus, majority leader in the state senate, and the Rev. Joseph Duffey, national chairman of A.D.A. Duffey has strong liberal supporters, including such war protesters as Actor Paul Newman; Marcus can expect more support from Democratic regulars. The race is still wide open.

Unseat Three? After a close look at the 35 Senate seats to be filled--25 now held by Democrats and ten by Republicans--TIME Correspondent Loye Miller has concluded that the G.O.P. faces a tougher task than might be expected to gain those seven controlling desks. Miller's analysis gives the Republicans a good chance to take over from four Democrats: Tennessee's Albert Gore, New Jersey's Harrison Williams, New Mexico's Joseph Montoya and Florida's Spessard Holland, who is retiring. But he also sees the Democrats as likely to displace three Republicans: Vermont's Winston Prouty, Alaska's Ted Stevens and Illinois' Ralph Smith.

Correspondent Miller counts twelve Democratic Senators as likely to be reelected: Maine's Ed Muskie, Massachusetts' Edward Kennedy, Maryland's Joseph Tydings, Mississippi's John Stennis, Missouri's Stuart Symington, Montana's Mike Mansfield, Rhode Island's John Pastore, Washington's Henry Jackson, West Virginia's Robert Byrd, Virginia's Harry Byrd, Wisconsin's William Proxmire, Nevada's Howard Cannon. In Minnesota, Hubert Humphrey seems likely to replace the retiring Eugene McCarthy. Five Republican seats seem safe: those of Arizona's Paul Fannin, Hawaii's Hiram Fong, Nebraska's Roman Hruska, Pennsylvania's Hugh Scott and Delaware's John Williams, who is retiring. That analysis leaves only seven seats as highly unpredictable and certain to be keenly contested--and the Republicans would have to win all seven to take over the Senate.

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