Small Change

Annual model changes are not merely a tradition with U.S. automakers: for years they have been considered an important ingredient of the industry's sales success. Now, as Detroit begins to unveil its 1970 passenger cars, it is clear that this year's styling changes will be distinguished for their modesty. The proliferation of models in years past, the rising cost of retooling and added emphasis on safety have all contributed to the automakers' reluctance to tamper with last year's line.

General Motors is making minimal design changes. Frequently they involve nothing more fundamental than radiator grilles or other ornaments. The big Ford and Mercury models follow the same pattern. What few changes there are cater to the public's new taste for long hoods and truncated rear decks. For example, Chevrolet's lone new car, the Monte Carlo two-door sedan, measures 6 ft. from grille to windshield.

Fighting the Imports. Rather than concentrate on full-size models, Detroit is determined to make a dent in the soaring sales of foreign cars, which captured more than 10% of the total U.S. market last year for the first time since 1959. A decade ago, Detroit responded to the inroads of foreign competition by bringing out a fleet of compacts; within four years, the imports' share of the market was cut in half. Now the auto companies are ready to renew the battle with yet another generation of small cars.

> FORD put its entry, the Maverick, on sale last April (although the company labels it a 1970 car). Sales are already past 100,000, and the Maverick is breaking the records set by Mustang. With a wheelbase of 103 in., the six-cylinder Maverick is priced at $1,995. An even smaller car, named the Phoenix, is on Ford's drawing boards and could be introduced late next year.

> AMERICAN MOTORS will make its bid for the economy market this month. The all-new Hornet replaces the aging Rambler. The Hornet has a wheelbase of 108 in., which makes it the biggest of the small cars. Although its price had not been announced as of last week, the car will be offered with such options as a V-8 engine and a vinyl top, which could make it one of the most expensive compacts. Early next year, American will roll out the Gremlin, which is basically a Hornet with 10 in. lopped off the back.

> CHRYSLER staged a double surprise last week. The company unveiled its new Duster (price: under $2,100), a compact sedan on a Valiant chassis, powered by a 130-h.p. engine. At week's end, Chairman Lynn Townsend disclosed that Chrysler will bring out the smallest of the new U.S. compacts in mid-1971. Called "the 25 Car," it will have a wheelbase of only 91 in., about 3 in. less than that of a Volkswagen. > GENERAL MOTORS has spent more than $100 million building a plant to assemble its entry in the small-car market. Code-named the XP877, the new car will be some 10 in. shorter than the Maverick. It will be powered by an aluminum four-cylinder engine. G.M. expects to begin selling the new model some time next summer.

The automakers are re-entering the small-car market at a difficult time. G.M. President Edward Cole predicted last week that new car sales in the 1970 model year would remain close to 1969's near-record level of some 9,700,000 units, but Detroit's share of that total has been dwindling. Sales of imported autos in the U.S. will exceed 1,000,000 units in the '69 model year, a 70% increase from 1966, and the trend is still running against domestic producers.

Foreign-car sales totaled 89,000 during July, up 8% over July 1968. Japan's Toyota, now the second largest auto exporter to the U.S. (after Volkswagen), equaled its 1968 U.S. sales during the first seven months of this year, with 68,823 cars.

U.S. automakers cannot compete with the imports on the basis of price. Instead they are gambling that potential foreign-car buyers will pay a bit more in original cost and operating expense to gain speed and seating space. Even so, profits on the small cars are going to be slim compared with those on larger models like the Mustang, which are offered with expensive options that can double their price and profitability. If U.S. automakers have miscalculated about the kind of small car American buyers want, they could end up selling cheap cars to customers who otherwise would have bought more expensive models.

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