BEYOND THE MOON: NO END

Few men have written about space with greater foresight and intelligence than Britain's Arthur C. Clarke. Now 51, and living in Ceylon, Clarke has published 40 books of science fact and fiction, including 2001: A Space Odyssey. In 1945, he made the first proposal for the orbiting of a synchronous communications satellite. In 1959, he made--and has just narrowly lost--a bet that man would land on the moon by June 1969. Here, at TIME'S request, Clarke weighs the consequences of man's first extraterrestrial venture.

NOT long ago, a critic of the space program suggested that as soon as the first astronauts came safely back from the moon, we should wind up manned flight and leave exploration entirely to robots. This may well rank as the silliest statement of a notably silly decade; to match it one must imagine Columbus saying: "Well, boys, there's land on the horizon--now let's go home."

Manned operations will be vital for the development of space industry. Even if--as is likely--most of the satellites for communications, meteorological, earth survey and other purposes will be automatic devices, we shall need human crews to install and service them.

Log-Canoe Stage

The moon is only the first milestone on the road to the stars. The exploration of space--by man and machine, for each complements the other--will be a continuing process with countless goals, but no final end. When our grandchildren look back at earth, they will find it incredible that anyone there failed to realize so obvious a fact of life.

Today's space technology, for all its glittering hardware, is still in the log-canoe stage. The next decade, therefore, despite all the spectacular achievements it will surely bring, will be a period of consolidation. Such a technological plateau occurred in 1945-55, when the results of wartime rocket research had to be assimilated before the first breakthrough into space was possible. We are now entering a very similar period; some time after 1985, the true space age will begin to dawn.

In our present state of almost total ignorance, the only prediction that can be safely made about the other eight planets and their 30-odd moons is that there is not a single one upon which unprotected men can live. Most of these places are almost unimaginably alien; but that very fact will give them immense scientific value. Moreover, in a very short time--historically speaking--we may be forced to exploit resources beyond the earth. This may become necessary or desirable even if, as seems probable, great progress is made in the production of synthetics and in exploiting the resources of the sea.

Planetary Garbage Dump

This does not give us a charter to continue turning earth into a planetary garbage dump; in an ecological sense, we must put our own house into order before we expand into others. But it is good to know that they are there--even though extensive alterations will be required to make them comfortable. Our generation has learned how to kill a world; the same powers can bring life to worlds that have never known it.

The history of technology teaches us that the right tool always arrives at the right time; witness how the transistor was ready when the space age dawned. The cycle may be beginning again, leading to feats of astronomical engineering as inconceivable to us as televising would have been to the Victorians. Whatever technologies the future may bring, the doors of heaven are now opening; this is the central fact of our age.

Those who are--understandably--obsessed with the urgent problems of today, aim at the wrong target when they attack the space program. They say the money would be better spent on the ghettos or the hungry, especially with so much already going to the Viet Nam war. That the money would in fact be spent in such a way is, at best, debatable. Moreover, cost effectiveness is not a criticism that can or should be applied to advanced technology. Who would have put money on atomic energy in 1940? A nation which concentrates on the present will have no future; in statesmanship, as in everyday life, wisdom lies in the right division of resources between today's demands and tomorrow's needs.

The Real Promise

There is always the fear, of course, that men will carry the curse of their animosities into space. But it is more likely that in the long run, those who go out to the stars will leave behind the barriers of nation and race that divide them now. There is a hopeful symbolism in the fact that flags will not wave in a vacuum; our present tribal conflicts cannot be sustained in the hostile environment of space. Whether we like it or not, our children will find new loyalties when they set foot on the moon, or Mars, or the satellites of the giant planets. They did so in these United States a hundred years ago; they will do so on the United Planets in the centuries to come.

And this is the real promise of space exploration--the reason why it appeals so strongly to the young in heart. The Frontier, which only a generation ago seemed lost forever, is open again. And this time it will never close.

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