THE CITY: HOPE FOR THE SUMMER

The Fire Next Time, James Baldwin warned in 1963, and history seemed bent on rewriting the admonition to "a bigger fire next summer." Since Harlem ignited in 1964 and Watts a year later, blacks and whites have shared a fear of each approaching riot season. Can this year be different? Cautiously, with an almost superstitious anxiety that expressions of hope may tempt fate, black and white leaders across the nation look for a better summer.

A survey by TIME correspondents in 28 cities found that the all-too- routine apprehensions are now mixed with a sense of optimism based on lessons painfully learned.

Causes for concern persist, of course. Police in Chicago worry about a continuation of the snipings and gang shoot-outs that have claimed 29 lives since the beginning of the year. Authorities in New York fear that racial turmoil centered in the schools may spill into the community at large this summer. Pittsburgh police are alert for guerrilla warfare in integrated mill neighborhoods. Despite these threats, despite the knowledge that a single unexpected incident can turn hope to ashes--literally--the dominant mood is that this year the cities are not for burning.

Qualified Confidence. One factor accounting for this qualified confidence is the growing eagerness of Negro communities themselves to prevent violence. Except for a tiny minority of black anarchists, Negroes are increasingly aware of the suicidal aspect of ravaging their own neighborhoods. In Newark last week, after the fatal shooting of a black youth by a black policeman triggered a night of looting and property damage, an all-black volunteer patrol worked with the police to check violence. Wearing yellow armbands for identification, the volunteers preceded the police in their sweeps through ghetto streets, warning residents to obey the 10 p.m. to 6 a.m. curfew imposed by Mayor Hugh Addonizio. The disorder abated quickly, without causing sympathy tremors in other New Jersey cities. In San Francisco, black clergymen, labor officials and professional people went out into the neighborhoods to help cool rising tempers following a police raid on Black Panther headquarters.

Little City Halls. Slow as it is in coming, some progress is also being made in eliminating conditions that promote unrest. Unemployment is at its lowest point in 15 years. Although there has been no major infusion of federal money recently, expanded recreation, job and housing programs are under way in many cities. The Youth Advisory Council of Greater Los Angeles is coordinating federal, state and local job programs, and the State Employment Service plans to find jobs for all graduating high school seniors before they have a chance to waste the summer. A Model Cities program has been launched in Watts, and Lockheed Aircraft has dedicated a site for a new plant in the Willow Brook area. Four new swimming pools are scheduled to open in Miami's ghetto this summer.

Detroit is running an $8.9 million recreation program, and the police, who came in for heavy criticism for their role in the 1967 rioting, are preparing their own sports program for youth.

"I'm really optimistic," says William Schindler of the New Detroit Committee, "that we're in for a calm time." Mayor John Ballard of Akron has ordered more frequent garbage collections and improvement of ghetto property. Atlanta Mayor Ivan Allen has opened "little city halls" in Negro districts.

Battle Plans. The police are moving in a number of ways to prevent violence. Programs of varying size and efficacy to improve police relations with the ghettos have been started in most cities. Los Angeles' hard-line chief Tom Reddin has left police work for television. Recruiting, particularly of black policemen, has been stepped up. Washington has added 500 men to its 3,600-member force and plans to add another 500. One hundred and forty of the latest 1,000 graduates of the New York Police Academy are black.

Police are continuing to refine plans for controlling violence if it should occur. St. Louis plainclothesmen are ready to single out and arrest troublemakers. Houston Chief Herman Short is prepared to "meet force with overwhelming force." Los Angeles police have seven helicopters and an elaborate battle plan involving National Guard and Army Reserve units to cope with violence. Cleveland police are ready to move decisively if the recent conviction and death sentence of Fred ("Ahmed") Evans--a black nationalist who led the fatal ambush of three policemen and a civilian last summer--should touch off rioting there.

Upcoming municipal elections should help to prevent violence in some cities, particularly where blacks hold or seek high office. Newark Negroes, sensing an opportunity to gain control of the city government in next May's elections, have reason for restraint; they wish to do nothing to help Anthony Imperiale, who bases his candidacy on white fear of the Negroes. Blacks in Cleveland are likely to reunite behind Negro Mayor Carl Stokes, who is up for re-election this fall. The mayoral campaign of Negro City Councilman Tom Bradley in Los Angeles has helped to rally that city's Negro community--and to raise black hopes for a more sympathetic city hall than Sam Yorty has run.

Even if riots are held in check this year, however, halcyon days are not necessarily imminent.

Violence on and around campuses may yet succeed and surpass the traditional types of slum upheaval in casualties. Clashes between student militants and university and civil authorities have already triggered guns, ignited fire bombs, and broken heads from coast to coast. The latest spasm at Berkeley, in which students and police confronted each other over an off-campus issue, demonstrates how easily a single crisis can involve both city and university.

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