The Politics of Risk

Before Charles de Gaulle vowed to resign "without delay" if Frenchmen reject his proposals in the April 27 national referendum, the polls showed an apathetic and uncertain electorate: 52% undecided or determined to abstain and the rest almost evenly divided. Last week the first poll taken after the general's ultimatum turned up results that would dismay a lesser man. A full 40% of the voters had not yet made up their minds, and the rest were still divided. Only 52% intended to vote oui for De Gaulle's program--and therefore for De Gaulle himself.

The government's concern was reflected in a massive campaign. Finance Minister Franc,ois-Xavier Ortoli promised no new taxes this year. Defense Minister Pierre Messmer announced that the government was considering lowering compulsory military service from 16 months to twelve. The Ministry of Interior prepared 29 million pamphlets explaining the referendum--one for every voter in France. Applying what has always before been the clinching argument, Minister of State Roger Frey drew a frightening picture of a France without De Gaulle: "To vote no or to abstain is to vote for the Communist Party, to compromise France's economic recovery, and to sabotage the defense of the franc."

Paris' Le Monde had a word for that: "Blackmail." The Gaullist scare tactic further distorted an already complex referendum that lumps three disparate issues in one take-it-or-leave-it package. The main component is De Gaulle's plan to shift power from Paris bureaucrats to newly created economic regions. Along with this popular measure, voters are asked to endorse De Gaulle's plans to strip away the Senate's powers and shift the line of presidential succession from the President of the Senate to the Premier--a De Gaulle appointee. Thus put, the packaging has roused the nons to fierce opposition and drawn to their side ex-Minister of Finance Valery Giscard d'Estaing and Senate President Alain Poher, who last week was stumping the countryside in defense of "the separation of powers."

By far the most fascinating question has been raised by De Gaulle's threat of apres moi le deluge--since for once there is no deluge in sight. Instead, Frenchmen have a visible alternative to De Gaulle in ex-Premier Georges Pompidou. He loyally rejects the proposition that a no vote on the referendum is a yes for himself, and last week was out campaigning vigorously for De Gaulle's program. Nonetheless, his presence on the hustings could only allay any fear of post-De Gaulle chaos and give voters a choice in deciding whether the general had perhaps cried wolf once too often. As unlikely as that may seem, it is a question that may keep Frenchmen in suspense until the last votes from the countryside come in.

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