NEW REALITY IN THE MEDITERRANEAN

As the 78, 000-ton aircraft carrier U.S.S. Forrestal slid out of the Greek port of Salonica one grey dawn last week, a 900-ton escort ship waited for her just outside the harbor. The Forrestal turned southward into the Aegean Sea, and the escort dutifully took up station a mile astern, rolling gently in the huge carrier's wake. At midday, when the Forrestal catapulted her Phantom jets into clearing skies, the escort drew alongside to within 50 yards of the carrier. But not a signal was exchanged. The escort vessel was Russian, a super gunboat of the Mirka class, and the Forrestal had not invited her to tag along.

Invited or not, the Soviet navy has made itself at home all over the Mediterranean in sharply increasing numbers. Acting as if they had nothing to lose but their anchor chains, the Russians are everywhere now--tailing the U.S. Sixth Fleet, showing the Red Flag from the Dardanelles to Gibraltar, resorting to old-fashioned gunboat diplomacy to keep the big powers baffled and the smaller ones uneasy.

Snap of the Fingers. Black-bereted naval infantrymen, the Soviet version of Marines, stroll the streets of Damascus. Intelligence trawlers refuel at what has become the Soviets' main Mediterranean port of call, Alexandria. Soviet patrol boats tie up 1,700 miles to the west at the Algerian port of Mers-el-Kebir. Soviet subs play hide-and-seek with NATO patrols underneath the heel of Italy. Overhead, from bases in Egypt, Soviet "Badger" class planes, their red stars painted over with Egyptian markings, wing daily across the Mediterranean to shadow Allied fleets.

What are the Russians up to? NATO commanders do not know the answer, but they do know that the new Soviet presence has radically changed the Mediterranean equation. Only ten years ago, when Nasserite terrorists were trying to overthrow the government of Lebanon, its President, Camille Chamoun, could reassure a doubting Cabinet minister: "If things get too tough, I can call for the Sixth Fleet, just like this . . ." And the President snapped his fingers. Chamoun did call for help; the U.S. Sixth Fleet landed its Marines. Lebanon proceeded to settle its affairs without further outside interference. Russia's Nikita Khrushchev, who had been loudly rattling his rockets and threatening war if the U.S. intervened in Lebanon, quickly backed down in the face of the U.S. show of strength.

Impact on Israel. In those days, the Mediterranean was considered an American lake, and the Soviets had just begun to awaken to the potentialities of seapower. In the early '60s, the Soviets began to build up their navy all over the world (TIME cover, Feb. 23). Now the U.S. must reckon with the Soviet force in the Mediterranean--and so must the Israelis. When Soviet-made Styx missiles, fired from a torpedo boat by Egyptians, sank the Israeli destroyer Elath off Port Said in an incident in October 1967, the Israelis dared not retaliate directly for fear of hitting Soviet warships near by. Now the Soviets have brought a dredge into the Mediterranean; should they try to use it to pry open the Suez Canal, the Israelis would face an agonizing dilemma.

In recent weeks, the Soviets have put yet another x into the equation. To the Soviet eskadra (squadron) in the Mediterranean, which has numbered as many as 52 ships, including two cruisers, ten submarines and six intelligence-collecting trawlers, the Russians added an entirely new kind of vessel on the face of the oceans--a multipurpose, missile-firing helicopter carrier. The Russians so far have built no Western-style aircraft carriers because they consider them vulnerable to missile attack. In stead, into the Mediterranean glided the Moskva, a sleek 25,000-ton vessel that combines the features of a cruiser and a carrier. The craft has four pads marked with red and white bull's-eyes on her 100-yd. flight deck for launching up to 30 helicopters of the Hormone type used in antisubmarine warfare. The Moskva is the first Soviet vessel in the Mediterranean equipped with ship-to-air as well as ship-to-ship missiles, and each time a U.S. Navy P-2 patrol plane tries to take a peek, the Russians swiftly swing the missiles below decks on elevator platforms. In a crunch, the helicopters could carry troops. In the future, the Moskva will be able to handle VTOL (vertical takeoff, landing) planes as well as helicopters.

Altering the Balance. In the opinion of U.S. strategists, the Soviet Mediterranean force, lacking big aircraft carriers, would be no match for the Sixth Fleet, with its 50 combat ships, including two carriers and two cruisers, 200 aircraft and 25,000 men. The Russian squadron in the Mediterranean is, in fact, smaller than the Italian navy. But as U.S. Admiral Horacio Rivero, commander of NATO forces in Southern Europe, notes: "While the Soviet flotilla is a potential military threat, its greatest importance is political and psychological. The number of ships is not too important. The presence of one ship has a political impact."

A coup attempt in Egypt or Syria, a blockade thrown against Israel for Egypt, a pro-Soviet political upheaval in Albania, a Soviet power play against Yugoslavia--all are situations in which the Soviets could use their new seapower with unpredictable results. Some Western strategists worry that the friendly neighborhood presence of Russian ships may tempt the Arabs to take foolish chances soon against Israel, in the belief that the Russians would rush to their aid if Israel lashed back in force.

Nothing of the sort has yet happened, and in fact the Russians so far have failed to persuade any of the countries along the Mediterranean, including Algeria and Egypt, to permit them to build a full-fledged naval base. But even without such bases, the Soviets now drop anchor all along the rim of the Mediterranean and sail binocular-to-binocular alongside the allies. The Russians muscled into the Mediterranean, says U.S. Rear Admiral Richard C. Outlaw, "in a concerted attempt to alter the balance of power in this area." It is to keep the balance even that this week Outlaw, whose name the Italians have happily translated as Il Bandito, takes command of Maritime Air Forces, Mediterranean (MAIRAIRMED), the special new NATO naval air arm created to coordinate the watch on the Russians watching NATO.

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