THE SENATE: Gains for the G.O.P., but Still Democratic and Liberal

IT would take an electoral earthquake, not just a landslide on Nov. 5, to strip the Democrats of the majority they have enjoyed since 1955 in the U.S. Senate. When the 90th Congress adjourned, they had 63 members to 37 for the G.O.P. Only 34 of the Senate's 100 seats are to be filled this year, including the one that belongs to Louisiana Democrat Russell Long, who is unopposed. A week before Election Day, the outlook is for a G.O.P. gain of anywhere from two to nine seats. That would leave the Senate with a breakdown ranging from 54 Democrats and 46 Republicans to 61 Democrats and 39 Republicans.

A Nuisance. The 1969 freshmen are expected to give the chamber a marginally more conservative outlook. In general, however, the Senate will probably remain a liberal body--and a nuisance to the President if he is a conservative.

Four Democratic incumbents--Herman Talmadge of Georgia, Hawaii's Daniel Inouye, North Carolina's Sam Ervin and Ernest Hollings of South Carolina--Seem virtually assured of reelection. Democrat James Allen, a conservative Southerner, is a cinch to win the seat of Alabama's retiring Lister Hill. Five Republicans--Illinois' Everett Dirksen, New Hampshire's Norris Cotton, New York's Jacob Javits, Utah's Wallace Bennett and Vermont's George Aiken--are likewise rated as shoo-ins.

Democrats are counted as leaders in nine more states. One is California, where liberal Democrat Alan Cranston is far ahead of conservative Republican Max Rafferty in a battle for the seat of Thomas Kuchel, a G.O.P. liberal. Another is Connecticut, though Abe Ribicoff is being pressed unexpectedly hard by Republican Edwin May. Republicans lead in another six Senate races, with comparatively easy victories forecast in

Florida and Arizona for seats hitherto held by Democrats.

Muddying the outcome this year, however, are the presidential aspirations of George Wallace--even though no senatorial candidates are running on Wallace's American Independent Party ticket. How those casting ballots for Wallace and Curtis LeMay will vote for other offices, nobody knows. Yet their votes could prove decisive in neck-and-neck contests in seven states--Iowa, Maryland, Missouri, Nevada, Ohio, Oklahoma and Oregon. Alaska is also rated a tossup, because of a write-in campaign for 81 -year-old Democratic Senator Ernest Gruening, who was unseated in a primary by Real Estate Developer Mike Gravel. The write-in greatly enhances the hopes of Elmer Rasmuson, Republican mayor of Anchorage. Some significant contests:

NEW YORK: Democratic Debacle

New York's divisive Democrats relish a bruising battle--particularly when it is among themselves. Their 1968 performance is typical. Irish-born Attorney Paul O'Dwyer, 61, brother of the late mayor of New York William O'Dwyer and an early supporter of Senator Eugene McCarthy's presidential bid, adamantly shuns Hubert Humphrey and the national Democratic ticket, refusing to compromise his single-minded opposition to the Viet Nam conflict. Party regulars are supporting him lukewarmly if at all. Despite a loyal army of 25,000 youthful McCarthyite volunteers, O'Dwyer seems certain to furnish liberal Republican Senator Jacob K. Javits, 64, with his biggest majority in a 22-year string of victories.

While Richard Nixon and Humphrey are in a close struggle for the state's 43 electoral votes, the New York Daily News straw poll last week showed Javits defeating O'Dwyer by better than 2 to 1. Nonetheless, Javits takes no chances. In grueling 15-to 20-hour days, he stumps the state, replaying his record as a champion of urban causes and civil rights and his own call for peace in Viet Nam. Once a supporter of L.B.J.'s war policy, Javits began voicing disquiet in February 1967. To O'Dwyer, that makes Javits a Jacob-come-lately to the dovecote. Yet even O'Dwyer does not go far enough for radical New York peace protesters; last week a group heckled him by parading with a pig's head on a platter. Two others bared their disapproval by turning up nude.

Javits also has troubles within his own party. Vice Presidential Candidate Spiro Agnew was not being helpful when he attacked New York's Liberal Party as a "far out" group; the Liberals have endorsed Javits. Nor did Agnew help by appearing at a dinner honoring Javits' right-wing Conservative Party opponent, James L. Buckley, the brother of National Review Editor William F. Buckley Jr.

But taking any support from Javits can be a difficult chore, as O'Dwyer is learning. O'Dwyer is a veteran defender of civil rights cases, which he often took for little or no fee; he hopes to cut deeply into his opponent's strength among Negroes. His involvement in gunrunning to embattled Israeli freedom fighters in 1948 also gives him the hope of cracking Javits' near monopoly on; New York's more than 1.7 million Jewish votes. But O'Dwyer remains an all but certain loser to one of the best vote getters in U.S. politics.

MARYLAND: Mahoney Rides Again If the name of Congressman Charles McC. Mathias ever becomes a household word, much of the credit will accrue to George P. Mahoney, the most indefatigable also-ran in Maryland's history. Defeated in seven runs for the Senate or the governorship, Mahoney has nonetheless managed to make and break several other men's political fortunes en route to disaster. In 1966, Mahoney narrowly won the Democratic gubernatorial nomination, but his bumbling style and racist opinions (he campaigned on the slogan: "Your home is your castle--protect it!") prompted many Democrats to vote for his Republican opponent, Spiro T. Agnew.

With Mahoney running this year as an independent, the Democrats are in trouble once again. "Without Mahoney," fumes Democratic Senator Daniel B. Brewster, "I couldn't lose. The question is: How many votes can he take away?" Enough. In a state where registered Democrats outnumber Republicans 3 to

1, the defections could put Republican

Mathias on top.

Stressing the issue of law and order in crime-ridden Baltimore, Mahoney

apes George Wallace, jeering that his

two opponents are indistinguishable. He has something of a point. Brewster and

Mathias were classmates at law school, Brewster was an usher at Mathias' wedding, and Mathias is godfather to one of Brewster's children. Both are liberals; both are for civil rights in a state that still clings to many Old South attitudes. But Brewster is relatively tough on law and order, while Mathias emphasizes the need to remedy the causes of social disorder. Brewster supports the Administration on Viet Nam; Mathias has been a fairly consistent dove. Mahoney, a self-made contractor, has muted his racist rhetoric since 1966 but still appeals to "antis," no matter what they may be against. He cannot be counted out entirely in a state that gave Wallace 42.7% of its votes in the

OHIO: Labor's Costly Feud 1964 presidential primary. "If we each got 33%," muses Mathias, "and Mahoney got 34% ..."

Forred-haired John Joyce Gilligan, 47, a former Congressman and Cincinnati councilman, it has been a long, long time from May to November. Last spring, heavily supported by labor unions, Gilligan unseated Ohio's moss-backed Democratic Senator Frank Lausche in a primary. But when Gil ligan, a Viet Nam dove, pointedly refused to support Humphrey before the Chicago convention, the unions slammed shut their coffers. Not until October, when their feud with Gilligan was finally papered over, did they reopen them.

Labor's grudging return to Gilligan's camp may well have come too late.

Ranged against him is Ohio's superb G.O.P. machine, which sorely wants to wrest the Senate seat away from the Democrats. Then, too, Gilligan is a lib eral in a conservative state in what looks like a conservatives' year. Final ly, he is opposed by William Saxbe, 52, a tobacco-chawing country lawyer whose rugged ways conceal a polished political professional.

One of Saxbe's campaign advertisements shows the American eagle riddled by bullets; he is running hard on law and order, citing as his qualification eight years as Ohio's attorney general.

Though he cannot match Gilligan's Irish wit, he has a style that voters like.

Saxbe also has $750,000 to spend, roughly twice as much as his opponent.

A Cleveland Plain Dealer poll last week put Saxbe six points ahead of his Dem ocratic rival, but the election could still be decided by the 16.8% of Ohio voters listed as not having made up their minds.

MISSOURI: Contest of Opposites

Missouri's Lieutenant Governor Thomas F. Eagleton, 39, has been running so hard that he has lost 16 pounds since January, and his trousers sag around his hips. A moody six-footer who chain-smokes two packs of cigarettes a day, Eagleton toppled scandal-tainted Senator Edward Long in a primary tussle. Now the liberal Democrat is pitting his flamboyant campaign style against nine-term Congressman Thomas B. Curtis, 57, a sobersided, moderately conservative Republican who does his homework so assiduously that he is widely known as the hardest-working man in the House.

In this contest of opposites, Eagleton is believed to enjoy a slight edge. But Curtis plods along. "I've never won an election on personality," he readily admits. He is ranking Republican on the Joint Economic Committee, and his expertise in money matters rivals that of anyone in government today. He has a lawyer's pernickety eye for the fine print in legislation, has often voted against bills that he co-sponsored because they were diluted by minor amendments to which he objected. But while he impresses voters with his seriousness, integrity and knowledge, he also bores them with more details about fiscal policy than they want to know.

IDAHO: Rare Bird

A liberal Democratic dove among Ida ho's conservatives is a rara avis indeed. But Frank Forrester Church has al ways been something special. At 32, he was the youngest man in the U.S. Sen ate. Now 44, he has won a nationwide reputation as one of President Johnson's most adamant critics on Viet Nam. It is a posture that does not sit well with some Idahoans. He is also bucking a G.O.P. tide that seems certain to deliver the state to Nixon. Yet even his enemies concede that Church is likely to win a third term, defeating a determined challenge by conservative Congressman George V. Hansen, 38.

Church has kept the home folks hap py by combining his concern for for eign affairs with a zealous defense of Idaho's interests. He vigorously promotes conservation legislation and water projects for Idaho and opposes federal gun laws -- the hottest issue in the state.

An abortive attempt last year to recall Church for his dovishness, financed by an out-of-state right-winger, riled even voters who disagreed with their Senator on Viet Nam. Hansen compounded that gaffe with a roundhouse charge that Church was "one of the chief architects of the chaos we are experiencing in our streets and in our foreign and fiscal policies." Recently, however, Hansen has been following the dictates of a Seattle public relations firm, and has made up ground by hitching his campaign to Nixon's coattails.

OREGON: Morse Is the Issue

"Dear Republican," begins the cheery letter to Oregon voters, "we have a winner. Bob Packwood is expected to beat Wayne Morse by 28,180 votes." The figure is an invention; the result may not be. Morse, 68, is in real trouble. Lawyer Robert Packwood, 36, the great-grandson of an Oregon pioneer, trailed badly when the race began. Last week he nosed ahead of Morse in a state wide poll commissioned by Portland's Oregonian. Only four-tenths of a percentage point separated the contenders; the outcome now probably hangs on the verdict of a sliver-thin 4.8% of voters who were undecided prior to a televised debate last week, which many viewers conceded was won by Packwood despite Morse's acknowledged skills as a sharp-tongued debater.

Wayne Morse himself is the biggest issue. In four Senate terms, Morse has infuriated just about everybody in some ways, charmed them in others. A corrosive critic of the Viet Nam war, he nevertheless is on cordial terms with L.B.J.

He is firmly prolabor; yet his role in arbitrating last year's national rail strike miffed union leaders. Morse abandoned the G.O.P. 16 years ago and later be came a Democrat, an act still remembered with anger by many Republicans.

Two years ago, he evened things up by supporting dovish Republican Mark Hatfield for the Senate, thereby of fending thousands of Democrats.

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