Handicapping the Presidential Stakes
A 50-state survey by TIME correspondents last week found ample justification for the pessimism that pervades the Humphrey camp. Were the election to be held now, Nixon would win handily, capturing 34 states with 328 electoral votes (needed to win: 270). Hubert Humphrey, by contrast, can be conceded only ten states, plus the capital, all of which command 121 votes. Four Deep South states, with 39 votes, belong to George Wallace, while Michigan and Pennsylvania, with 50 between them, are rated tossups. Humphrey is so far behind in the backstretch of this presidential race that he is running third in half a dozen states.
But the race has barely begun, and 1968 has proved repeatedly--and jarringly--that it is not a good year for predictions. Only 100 of Nixon's votes are "safe," most of them coming from Western and Midwestern states where he is all but unassailable. And though Humphrey's only truly secure territory is the District of Columbia (3 votes), his candidacy is not altogether bankrupt.
The assumption that Wallace will damage Nixon in the South and Humphrey in the North may be at least partly wrong. In Southern and Border states, he does threaten Nixon. A late Wallace surge could give the Alabamian five more states--the Carolinas, Tennessee, Florida and Arkansas --and swell his electoral vote to 91. Or it could siphon enough votes away from Nixon to enable Humphrey to eke out a few unexpected victories. In the North, Wallace is cutting into the normally Democratic blue-collar wards. But a substantial number of those votes might have gone to Nixon this year because of the "law-and-order" issue, and now may be denied him. In any case, despite signs of rising Wallace strength in Missouri, Indiana, Nebraska, Kentucky, Montana and Wyoming, there is only a slim chance that he will throw a deadlocked election to the House of Representatives. Still, with seven weeks to go, there is enough time for events in Paris, Viet Nam or the ghettos--or a serious campaign gaffe--to scramble all the equations.
For now, here is the way the votes stack up:
Alabama (10 electoral votes): On the third party candidate's home turf, a pushover for Wallace.
Alaska (3): A solid G.O.P. organization under Governor Walter Hickel should carry the once safely Democratic state for Nixon.
Arizona (5): Though Democrats hold a 3-to-2 edge in voter registration, Barry Goldwater's state is Nixon's, too.
Arkansas (6): Wallace runs well in Orval Faubus' old stomping grounds, but it should go to Humphrey.
California (40): Governor Ronald Reagan should help Nixon to repeat his 1960 victory. The feuding Democrats have not even begun to work tor H.H.H.
Colorado (6): Nixon, at a gallop.
Connecticut (8): Labor leaders can no longer deliver the vote as they used to in industrial areas. Nixon leads.
Delaware (3): A swing state, going strongly against the in party. Nixon.
District of Columbia (3): A Negro vote of 63% and phalanxes of Federal employees make this Humphrey's lone safe harbor.
Florida (14): Nixon leads. Humphrey trails even Wallace, who has considerable strength in rural northern counties and some suburbs.
Georgia (12): Humphrey had the edge until a delegation-seating squabble in Chicago angered many moderates. Now Wallace is ahead.
Hawaii (4): For Humphrey.
Idaho (4): Nixon, as in 1960.
Illinois (26): Nixon lost the state in 1960 by 8,858 disputed votes, most of them supplied by Mayor Daley's Cook County machine. This time, there is doubt that King Richard can repeat the feat.
Indiana (13): As in 1960, Nixon's.
Iowa (9): A win for Nixon again, by a country mile.
Kansas (7): The nation's self-proclaimed "most Republican" state went for Johnson last time, could conceivably go to Wallace. But right now it belongs to Nixon.
Kentucky (9): The voters turned down Catholic John Kennedy in 1960 and Nixon, who benefited then, is likely to win again this time.
Louisiana (10): Even Democrat John McKeithen, a relatively progressive Governor, dares not support Humphrey. Wallace has it.
Maine (4): As popular Ed Muskie goes, so does the state. Humphrey.
Maryland (10): Agnew's coattails in his home state are less sturdy than are Muskie's in Maine. Humphrey.
Massachusetts (14): Wallace is drawing heavily from both candidates, but not enough to undermine Humphrey's long lead.
Michigan (21): Since 1960, when Nixon lost by a scant 67,000 votes, state registration rolls have shrunk by 300,000, mostly in Democratic strongholds. Still, the race is so tight that the weight of the Wallace vote (20% or so) is likely to decide the winner.
Minnesota (10): For native son H.H.H., but by no great margin.
Mississippi (7): Wallace country.
Missouri (12): Humphrey has a bare edge in a state that J.F.K. won by a hair, and L.B.J. by a landslide.
Montana (4): Nixon, though Wallace could make things uncomfortable.
Nebraska (5): There's no catching Nixon, who won his biggest margin (62.1%) here in 1960.
Nevada (3): A 2-to-l Democratic state, but Humphrey may finish third this year, with Nixon winning and Wallace placing.
New Hampshire (4): Nixon again.
New Jersey (17): Wallace shows muscle in riot-scarred Newark and other cities, but not enough to threaten Nixon's big lead.
New Mexico (4): Nixon by a nose.
New York (43): Barring any upheavals, the G.O.P. upstate vote is not likely to outweigh the Democratic New York City vote, where Humphrey's precarious advantage rests.
North Carolina (13): A strong local ticket, headed by G.O.P. Gubernatorial Candidate James Gardner, gives Nixon the lead in a tight three-way race.
North Dakota (4): Nixon's the one.
Ohio (26): The Democratic machine has been a shambles since Chicago. Nixon, comfortably.
Oklahoma (8): Nixon, despite a heavily Democratic (4 to 1) voter-registration edge. Humphrey may well run behind Wallace, who has scored as high as 28% in recent polls.
Oregon (6): Nixon all the way.
Pennsylvania (29): A tossup, with a heavy (10-12%) Wallace vote likely to decide the issue.
Rhode Island (4): For Humphrey, 'notwithstanding popular G.O.P. Governor John Chafee's work for Nixon.
South Carolina (8): Nixon over Wallace, thanks mainly to Strom Thurmond's blessing.
South Dakota (4): Easily Nixon's.
Tennessee (II): Currently tight, but Negroes, labor and loyal Democrats will probably save it for Humphrey.
Texas (25): Conservative Democrats are of a mind to sit on their hands and let Nixon, who lost by only 46,000 votes in 1960, go all the way.
Utah (4): A liquor-by-the-drink issue will bring out a heavy Mormon vote, fattening Nixon's already wide margin.
Vermont (3): Another one of Nixon's certainties.
Virginia (12): Nixon, unless Wallace draws away enough G.O.P. votes to allow Humphrey to squeak by.
Washington (9): Humphrey is somewhat distrusted as the sort who wants to "give something to everyone," so Nixon will likely get it all.
West Virginia (7): With kickback and tax-evasion scandals erupting in the Democratic state administration, Nixon holds a slim lead.
Wisconsin (12): Nixon, teamed with popular Governor Warren Knowles, leads.
Wyoming (3): Nixon country.
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