Friday, Sep. 13, 1968

DEMOCRATS: The Lesser Evil?

HUBERT HUMPHREY has just two months to overcome his image as Lyndon Johnson's servitor and re-establish his own individuality. Yet, instead of staking out a creative and specific program of his own that would help him to do so, the Vice President seems prepared to wage his campaign on another man's record: Richard Nixon's.

Humphrey is banking heavily on the expectation that even among Democrats and independents who are not wildly enthusiastic about his own candidacy, Nixon will appear the less palatable alternative. Accordingly, he is already moving to underscore Nixon's record as a "cold warrior" and a flappable politician in an era that calls for coolness.

The Vice President is counting on Nixon to commit a damaging blunder at some point during the fall, or at least to campaign so timidly, in the hope of avoiding errors, that he will fail to generate sufficient enthusiasm to win. Thus, after Nixon carefully avoided comment on a number of touchy issues during a televised interview in Chicago last week, Humphrey happily said: "I remember when Tom Dewey thought he could glide through a campaign full of love and kisses. All he thought he had to do was smile. He was wrong."

United Front. Even for an inveterate optimist like the Vice President, that seemed an unduly rosy view. The nation's increasingly conservative mood seems to be working against him. His own strategists figure that Nixon and Alabama's George Wallace will roll up 55% to 60% of the total vote between them. They also estimate that Humphrey will have to win 80% of the nation's Negro and Jewish votes, though recent New York polls give him only 60% of those groups in that pivotal area, with 20% still undecided.

Nonetheless, Humphrey professed to see nothing but hopeful portents. "A good number of the dissidents have come back," he said. "I think we'll have a pretty good united front." Indeed, some key supporters of Eugene McCarthy, including former Democratic National Chairman Stephen Mitchell and California Assembly Speaker Jesse Unruh, were back in the fold and others were expected to return in time. One who will not: Louisiana's Governor John McKeithen, who announced that he will not back Humphrey, thus in effect ceding his state to Wallace. McCarthy himself remained silent. Said a Democrat who had earlier opposed the Vice President, but is now aiding him: "Everything in life boils down to one question--which is the lesser of evils."

LBJ.'s Role. Shuttling between the East Coast and his 22-acre Triple-H homeplace in Waverly, Minn., Humphrey devoted much of the week to strengthening the creaking Democratic machinery (see following story) in preparation for his formal campaign kickoff this week in Washington. One crucial question that remains unresolved is what role Lyndon Johnson will play in his Vice President's campaign. The President has told Humphrey privately that it may be best for him to do nothing, and last week Johnson declared at a press conference that he does not intend to undertake "partisan activities." If that is true, Humphrey may have reason to be grateful in the light of Johnson's plunge to a new low in the Gallup ratings (35% approval, 52% disapproval). Of course, a President can still hit the campaign trail and call it "governmental" rather than partisan activity if he so chooses. Aside from Texas, however, there are few places where the President is likely to be more an asset than a detriment to Humphrey --and even Texas could turn out to be G.O.P. territory in 1968.

No Rubber Stamp. Increasingly, Humphrey's lanky, wryly humorous running mate, Maine Senator Edmund S. Muskie, appeared to be assuming the role of healer for a fractured party. Talking to newsmen at his summer home in Kennebunk Beach, Me., he emphasized that Humphrey "doesn't want a rubber stamp or a carbon copy of himself" for a Vice President. Accordingly, he staked out positions slightly to the left of Humphrey's on at least two important issues. Referring to the conduct of Chicago's police, he noted that "a lot of innocent people were hurt." On Viet Nam, he conceded that Johnson's policy "has not worked to achieve a negotiated settlement" but urged all parties "to get away from this business of trying to blame one another on every tactical move."

As Muskie described it, Humphrey will hit "the big spots" during the campaign and he will "fill in the other territory." Said the former Governor, a Polish Catholic who nonetheless has the craggy, crinkly features of a down-Easter: "They say that because of my ethnic background I'm supposed to do well in the cities. However, it seems to me that because of my appearance I might expect to do very well in the rural areas."

Humphrey can only keep his fingers crossed that Muskie does well in both places, for he needs all the help he can get. His strategists do not expect his campaign to hit its stride until early October. They hope that he will hit a well-timed peak just before Nov. 5, and that Nixon will start to sag by then. All the same, there is some question whether this would leave him enough time to shake off the L.B.J. collar and do some persuasive barking on his own.

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