The Outlook from Coast to Coast

A region-by-region assessment by TIME correspondents of the outlook for the November election:

THE EAST: Democratic Romp Of the region's 149 electoral votes, Hubert Humphrey may win 79 and Richard Nixon 24, with 46 uncertain. For Humphrey: Connecticut (8), District of Columbia (3), Massachusetts (14), New York (43), Rhode Island (4) and West Virginia (7). For Nixon: Delaware (3), Maine (4), Maryland (10), New Hampshire (4) and Vermont (3).

With Nixon on the ballot, New York would probably go Democratic, whoever the party's candidate may be. Nelson Rockefeller, on the other hand, would probably carry the state, as well as Connecticut, New Jersey and Pennsylvania, while turning the Massachusetts and Rhode Island races into photo finishes and losing Delaware to the Democrats. While Massachusetts has a Republican Governor and one G.O.P. Senator, its predominantly Democratic voters have little enthusiasm for Nixon. In Connecticut, city votes are expected to outweigh Nixon's strength in affluent downstate counties. Pennsylvania gave 51.2% of its votes to John F. Kennedy eight years ago. But the Philadelphia Democratic machine, which produced a 331,554-vote bulge for J.F.K., has rusted badly since Bill Green's death; so has the Allegheny County (Pittsburgh) machine now that Dave Lawrence is gone. That makes the state a question mark.

THE MIDWEST: Nod fora Native Son Whether the Democrats nominate Humphrey or Eugene McCarthy, the candidate will be a Midwesterner, and the native son figures to win 83 electoral votes to 45 for Nixon and 21 undecided. For Humphrey: Illinois (26), Michigan (21), Minnesota (10) and Ohio (26). For Nixon: Indiana (13), Kansas (7), Missouri (12), Nebraska (5), North Dakota (4) and South Dakota (4). Up in the air: Iowa (9), which is breaking out of its former conservative mold; and Wisconsin (12), which would be Nixon country if Neighbor Humphrey were not so popular there.

Though Nixon's camp has polls showing him a winner over Humphrey in Illinois, he does not have the horsepower needed to pull enough downstate Republicans to offset the Democratic stronghold of Cook County. A tendency to vote against incumbents could reverse the trend, however, and give the state to Nixon. Ohio's big cities are heavily blue-collar, and though labor's votes are growing less predictable, they should give the edge to the Democrats. As in Illinois, many G.O.P. officials in Ohio prefer Rockefeller as a man who could cut sharply into the Democratic hold on the cities. THE SOUTH: Nixon, Naturally With 145 electoral votes at stake, Nixon should take 82, Humphrey 46, Wallace 17 (Alabama's 10 and Mississippi's 7). For Nixon: Arkansas (6), Florida (14), Kentucky (9), Oklahoma (8), South Carolina (8), Texas (25) and Virginia (12). For Humphrey: Georgia (12), Louisiana (10), North Carolina (13-) and Tennessee (11)-But for a growing Negro vote, a deep-rooted Democratic tradition and the fact that most Wallace votes will be skin off Republican hides, Nixon might have been able to count on a clean sweep in Dixie. Georgia went for Barry Goldwater in 1964, but Wallace--not Nixon --will get a good share of those Republican votes this year. In addition, the growing number of Negro and white-moderate voters should provide harmony for Hubert. In Louisiana, a huge Wallace vote is expected to hurt Nixon, as is anticipated support for Humphrey from the state's astute Governor John McKeithen. North Carolina is one state where Wallace is expected to do as much damage to the Democratic as to the Republican candidate. But the black vote should tilt it Humphrey's way.

In Tennessee, Wallace may carry as much as 30% of the vote and lose the state for Nixon. But Texas, which emerged only recently as a two-party state, should be Nixon's--unless outgoing Governor John Connally is Humphrey's running mate. With Rockefeller the G.O.P. nominee, Wallace votes would probably turn Arkansas, South Carolina and Virginia from Republican to Democratic states; Florida and Texas would probably go Democratic. THE WEST: No Contest Of the region's 95 electoral votes, Humphrey is likely to win a scant seven --from the two newest states in the Union, Alaska (3) and Hawaii (4)-- while Nixon walks off with the remaining 88 votes from eleven states. For Nixon: Arizona (5), California (40), Colorado (6), Idaho (4), Montana (4), Nevada (3), New Mexico (4), Oregon (6), Washington (9), Wyoming (3) and Utah (4).

California is the big one and is as unpredictable as ever. Nonetheless, the anti-incumbent tide that is beginning to run elsewhere in the nation might hurt Humphrey, unless he can somehow shuck his identification with the Administration. In Arizona, Goldwater's presence on the ticket as a senatorial candidate should help Nixon overcome an overwhelmingly Democratic edge in voter registration. Nixon won Washington in 1960, and should do so again with help from both blue-and whitecollar areas, where concern with law and order runs deep. With Senator Mark Hatfield behind him in Oregon, Nixon is likely to pocket that state's electoral votes. With Rockefeller on the Republican ticket, a tide of pro-Wallace protest voters could give Arizona and Utah, and possibly others, to the Democrats.

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