DEMOCRATIC COUNTDOWN

NINE weeks before the Democratic Convention in Chicago, Vice President Hubert Humphrey is in easy reach of a first ballot victory. 341 delegates are already committed to Humphrey and 995 1/2 lean toward him but could conceivably turn elsewhere. Needed to nominate: 1,312. Senator Eugene McCarthy's 322 1/2 committed votes are augmented by a mere 105 1/2 votes leaning in his direction. The remaining 857 1/2 votes could flow either way. They include 338 votes for favorite sons who could declare for Humphrey even before the first ballot. The probable first-ballot roll call of delegates as reported by TIME correspondents in all 50 states:

Alabama (32 votes): George Wallace has 17 1/2 certain votes, may wind up with 21. Hubert Humphrey has 1 1/2 for sure, with 9 more leaning his way. Half a vote is still uncommitted.

Alaska (22): Humphrey is likely to win all 22 under Alaska's unit rule.

Arizona (19): Humphrey can tally 14 1/2 committed votes, with 4 1/2 likely to end in Eugene McCarthy's column.

Arkansas (33): Humphrey is expected to capture them all when delegates are chosen this week.

California (174): One each for Humphrey and McCarthy. Robert Kennedy's friends are keeping the other 172 votes uncommitted for now.

Colorado (35): With 18 delegates yet to be chosen, 12 are committed or leaning to McCarthy, 5 to Humphrey.

Connecticut (44): A walkout by 5 McCarthy delegates reduces the state's delegation to 39 votes--all leaning to Humphrey unless the squabble is resolved by compromise or court order.

Delaware (22): Mark 22 leaning to Humphrey.

Florida (63): Favorite Son George Smathers will probably release at least 49 of his 57 votes to Humphrey, who has 2 votes already committed. McCarthy has 4.

Georgia (43): When Governor Lester Maddox gets around to choosing, Humphrey can expect all 43.

Hawaii (26): A clean sweep likely for H.H.H.

Idaho (25): Humphrey has 23 votes, McCarthy 2.

Illinois (118): All for Humphrey but 2 McCarthy votes.

Indiana (63): 55 should go to H.H.H., 8 to McCarthy.

Iowa (46): Humphrey expects 9 1/2 votes, McCarthy 7; the rest are still uncommitted.

Kansas (38): Bound by the unit rule, all lean to Humphrey.

Kentucky (46): When the delegation is chosen next month, 42 votes should be in Humphrey's column and 4 in McCarthy's.

Louisiana (36): Favorite Son Governor John McKeithen should deliver all to Humphrey.

Maine (27): Humphrey leads with 12 probable votes to McCarthy's 2 probables; 13 are uncommitted.

Maryland (49): All Humphrey's.

Massachusetts (72): All are committed to McCarthy on the first ballot, but many are likely to switch later to the Vice President.

Michigan (96): Humphrey can count on 63.04 votes, McCarthy on only 2.82; there are 30.14 undecided votes.*

Minnesota (52): In a contest of favorite sons, Hubert leads by 38 1/2 votes to Eugene's 13 1/2.

Mississippi (24): Humphrey can count on 24 reluctant supporters unless Wallace proves a spoiler and gets them.

Missouri (60): A unit rule keeps all 60 leaning to Humphrey.

Montana (26): Hubert is favored to take 22 votes v. 2 for McCarthy. Montana's two Senators have not yet made up their minds.

Nebraska (30): Humphrey should get 16 votes and McCarthy 6; the rest are uncommitted.

Nevada (22): Humphrey has 14 sure votes and 41 leaning heavily toward him. One vote favors McCarthy, while 21 Kennedy votes are uncommitted.

New Hampshire (26): Gene has 20 pledged votes; 6 others lean to H.H.H.

New Jersey (82): At least 59 of Governor Richard Hughes's delegates should wind up in Humphrey's camp. McCarthy can count on 19 votes, with 4 undecided.

New Mexico (26): All likely to go to Humphrey when delegates are chosen June 29.

New York (190): McCarthy's surprise primary victory gives him 61 and 30 more leaning his way. Humphrey can count on 52 committed or leaning votes. Kennedy forces may well keep 47 votes uncommitted.

North Carolina (59): Favorite Son Governor Dan Moore could give 58 to Hubert, with 1 going to McCarthy.

North Dakota (25): When delegates are chosen next week, 18 are expected to line up with Humphrey, 5 with McCarthy and 2 uncommitted.

Ohio (115): With 46 1/2 votes still uncommitted, Humphrey has a commanding 59 1/2 committed or leaning votes. So far McCarthy can count no more than 9.

Oklahoma (41): Humphrey has the 3 1/2 votes of delegates chosen so far. The remainder will be named later this month.

Oregon (35): All 35 for McCarthy.

Pennsylvania (130): Humphrey can expect 95 and McCarthy 21. The 14 Kennedy votes are still uncommitted, but a majority of these favor the Vice President.

Rhode Island (27): Only 2 for McCarthy, the rest leaning to Humphrey.

South Carolina (28): Favorite Son Governor Robert McNair leans heavily to Humphrey.

South Dakota (26): All Kennedy delegates, now uncommitted.

Tennessee (51): Governor Buford Ellington, a strong Humphrey man, will control the state's delegates, may release them to the Vice President on the first ballot.

Texas (104): Favorite Son Governor John Connally leans to Humphrey but is holding back endorsement.

Utah (26): Humphrey has 4 sure votes, should get 19 more when the rest of the delegates are chosen in July; 3 for McCarthy.

Vermont (22): Humphrey is favored to take 10 votes to McCarthy's 5; the other 7 are now uncommitted.

Virginia (54): No delegates will be chosen until July 27, and Governor Mills E. Godwin is expected to keep them uncommitted until he can strike a favorable bargain.

Washington (47): As many as 30 should go to Humphrey when the delegation is chosen, 10 to McCarthy; another 7 are up for grabs.

West Virginia (38): The state that dashed Hubert's presidential hopes in 1960 now leans strongly his way. Count 26 for Humphrey, 5 for McCarthy, 7 uncommitted.

Wisconsin (59): McCarthy, with 50 committed or leaning votes, is firmly in control. The rest to Humphrey.

Wyoming (22): Humphrey has 19, McCarthy the remainder.

District of Columbia (23): As a result of Kennedy's death, all are now uncommitted.

Canal Zone (5): At least 3 for Humphrey, 2 uncommitted.

Guam (5): Four believed for Humphrey, 1 for McCarthy.

Puerto Rico (8): All leaning heavily to Humphrey.

Virgin Islands (5): Likely to go to Humphrey under the unit rule.

* Reason for the odd arithmetic: two delegates have full votes, but the remaining 100 delegates have only 94 100ths of a vote apiece.

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