The Race After R.F.K.

The assassination clamped an immediate moratorium on campaigning, but there was no end to the speculation about what Robert Kennedy's death would mean to the future of the presidential contest. The first effect was confusion, accompanied by a Babel of rumors. One had it that the U.S. Supreme Court would study the constitutionality of simply postponing the election until 1970. Another predicted that Hubert Humphrey would withdraw from the race in favor of Ted Kennedy. Yet another said that Lyndon Johnson might plunge back into the race. All were remote possibilities at best.

Ironically, however, the assassination probably will have the effect of clarifying rather than obfuscating the prospects of the campaign year. As a result, most politicians agree, Hubert Humphrey and Richard Nixon, even more than before, seem destined to capture their parties' nominations and meet in November.

Pockets of Strength. Even before last week, Humphrey's forces had quietly marshaled sufficient delegate strength to put him within clear marching distance of a convention victory; Kennedy's death put him even closer. In his eleven-week campaign, R.F.K. had amassed more than 300 convention-delegate votes, including the 172 he won in California last Tuesday. Much of Kennedy's delegate legacy will inevitably fall to Humphrey. In Indiana, for example, the New Yorker's May 7 primary victory had assured him of at least 53 of the state's 63 convention votes. After Kennedy's death, Indiana party leaders declared that the slate would go uncommitted to Chicago, but in fact Governor Roger Branigin, who ran as a favorite son in the primary against Kennedy and Eugene McCarthy, will almost surely throw most of the votes to Humphrey on the first ballot.

Similarly, 94 of Michigan's 96 votes are expected to be solidly arrayed for the Vice President. While McCarthy will doubtless inherit pockets of delegate strength formerly pledged to Kennedy, the Minnesotan's unorthodox style does not endear him to Democratic party professionals, who have tended to favor either Kennedy or Humphrey. With the important primaries over, the search for delegates will shift from the polls to political clubhouses--an uncongenial environment for the professorial Senator.

The inheritance of Kennedy's popular support is problematic. Many of his partisans, stunned and embittered, have already forsworn further interest in the outcome of the election--an attitude that would hurt the Democratic candidate in November. Yet thousands of former R.F.K. backers in organized labor and among Negroes, Mexican-Americans and urban ethnic groups will undoubtedly gravitate to Humphrey. Students, intellectuals and antiwar Democrats who favored Kennedy will probably wind up with McCarthy.

Who for Two? Richard Nixon, like Humphrey, was already well on his way toward nomination even before last week. Rockefeller's on-again, off-again campaign has generated little heat, although this week, when he resumes his effort, he will speak with a new intensity, especially in Los Angeles, where he will open a campaign headquarters. Party professionals believe that Kennedy's death may leave Nixon farther ahead of Rocky than before. Had Kennedy seemed likely to be the Democratic nominee, they reason, G.O.P. convention delegates might have been convinced that they should choose Rockefeller because of his relative strength among Negroes and other minorities.

In the new situation, vice-presidential candidates abruptly assumed greater significance. Some Kennedy partisans hoped that Humphrey, should he be nominated, would select a running mate who was not a mere politician but a social thinker on the order of Urban Coalition Chairman John Gardner. And then there is Teddy Kennedy. Everywhere last week, Teddy was inevitably mentioned as his brothers' heir. If a presidential run would be premature for the Senator at 36, he was an almost excessively obvious choice for the No. 2 position--if he would accept it. "The superficial thing would be to take Teddy," said one Humphrey adviser. "But it might be too cute."

Mourning & Reconciliation. For his part, Nixon, if nominated, will likely seek his running mate in the G.O.P. liberal wing in order to foster an image of reconciliation. He does not lack for possibilities--Illinois' Charles Percy, Oregon's Mark Hatfield, Massachusetts' Edward Brooke--although one nearly ideal candidate, New York's Mayor John Lindsay, would seem to be out. According to the Constitution, a presidential and a vice-presidential candidate cannot "inhabit" the same state without one of them forfeiting that state's electoral votes in November.

Lindsay was being mentioned for another job. By law, Nelson Rockefeller must appoint Robert Kennedy's successor in the Senate, and will probably do so this week. Lindsay, with his popularity among Negroes and understanding of urban problems, might be a logical prospect, except that his departure would leave his hard-won mayoralty to the Democrats until a special election in November. Rockefeller may appoint an older figure, like Thomas E. Dewey, to serve out the last two years of Kennedy's term as a caretaker. There was some speculation that in a spirit of mourning and reconciliation, he might name a Democratic associate of Kennedy's, such as Ted Sorensen or Stephen Smith. However, if he is still seriously in search of the G.O.P. nomination for President, good politics would suggest that Rockefeller choose a Republican.

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