Mechanics of Rebellion

In setting out to challenge Lyndon Johnson, those not exactly friendly colleagues Gene McCarthy and Bobby Kennedy are also challenging history. The last time an incumbent President was denied renomination was in 1884, when James G. Blaine turned the trick against Chester Arthur, and went on to lose the general election.

Today's arithmetic is also discouraging. Until New Hampshire gave him the courage to dream, McCarthy had not seriously contemplated final victory; and charging into the primaries and convention halls where delegates are to be chosen, Kennedy is grimly aware of what he is up against. Sundry campaign captains recalled to active political service by Kennedy have had phones to ears for days; the feedback has been decidedly mixed. Theodore Sorensen, poring over the political charts, has pointed out the stone walls and blind alleys.

The primaries, which are more valuable for image-building than delegate-winning, present a special problem for a candidate-come-lately. Kennedy is already frozen out of the earlier ones--including Massachusetts, which he might have won easily--and his opponents have a head start in others. Partly for this reason and partly because of his desire to display "harmony" with Eugene McCarthy, Kennedy arrived at a curious strategy. He will support McCarthy in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Massachusetts, but run against him in Nebraska, Oregon, California and perhaps elsewhere. Prospects in the more significant races:

WISCONSIN, April 2. McCarthy, sharing the ballot only with Johnson, has a good chance of scoring a decisive victory and may get important aid from antiwar Republicans, who have the legal right to cross over on primary day. Even Lyndon Johnson's campaign director describes it as "fertile ground" for McCarthy. So far, the President has shown no disposition to climb down from his above-the-battle aloofness. His supporters plan a heavy, if belated, advertising campaign. Most of the state's leading Democratic officeholders are studiously neutral in public and hostile to Johnson in private.

INDIANA, May 7. McCarthy added the Hoosier State to his primary list last week, along with South Dakota. This move denied Kennedy the opportunity to take on Johnson alone. McCarthy has had an organization working on his campaign since December. Johnson forces, as elsewhere, are disorganized, and last week had still not decided on a stand-in to lead the Pres ident's faction. Kennedy said he was undecided whether to enter. The out look is uncertain.

NEBRASKA, May 14. Here Johnson may gain his first unsullied victory of the year in a directly contested race. The state is markedly hawkish, the Democratic regulars seemingly loyal. Last week former Governor Frank Morrison took over leadership of the Johnson campaign organization. The anti-Johnson sentiment seems too slight to support one challenger, let alone two.

OREGON, May 28. This is ideal underdog country. Oregonians tend to vote men, not party, and antiwar feeling runs high. However, Senator Wayne Morse warned Kennedy last week--before his announcement--that a threeway race would so divide the Administration's opponents that the President would "undoubtedly" collect the state's 35 delegate votes.

CALIFORNIA, June 4. The 174-vote package, to be given away on a winner-take-all basis, is the biggest prize of the primary season. The beneficiary, however, is difficult to predict. "There are," says Pierre Salinger, "too many Democratic parties in California." Among the factions within factions, there is no viable Johnson organization. After protracted, ludicrous bickering--to the point where two Ronald Reagan supporters were contending for places on the Johnson slate--a roster of presidential supporters was finally formed. McCarthy, as elsewhere, enjoys support from many old Stevensonians and New Lefters, but Kennedy may attract some of them. Bobby's loudest backer is Assembly Speaker Jesse Unruh. Facing just one opponent, an absentee Johnson would doubtless be in serious trouble. But, as in Oregon, he stands a good chance of winning if both Kennedy and McCarthy remain in the contest.

Untoppled. While the primaries dominate the headlines, the real job of delegate-scrounging goes on in the 36 non-primary states. These states and the four territories command a heavy majority of the delegate votes that will be cast at Chicago--1,568 out of 2,622. And of the 15 primaries (14 states and the District of Columbia), several are not subject to direct challenge. In Ohio, for instance, Senator Stephen Young seems to have the 115-vote delegation behind him as a favorite son. Young has been planning--at least so far--to release these votes to Johnson before the convention's first ballot.

Kennedy's chances rest on prying out enough votes, mainly from the non-primary states, to come into the convention with at least a respectable bloc. If his strength, together with McCarthy's and that of a few favorite sons, is large enough to preclude a first-ballot victory for Johnson, Kennedy might then just possibly knit together a subsequent majority vote.

So far, Kennedy has hardly been toppled by a rush of supporters. Wire-service surveys of state party chairmen found most of them still loyal to Johnson. Only three, in New York, Oregon and Tennessee, were willing to come out publicly for Kennedy. The initial reaction among congressional Democrats, even those sympathetic to Kennedy personally and on the major issues, was one of alarm rather than support. "He'll ruin the party!" was the reflex comment of several Capitol Hill Democrats. Most congressional Democrats and party officials in the states know that they face a tough campaign already and that a fight at the top can only make their own problems more serious.

False Guides. They also know that a President's vengeance can be swift and terrible if the challenger fails. Thus it is natural to hesitate, to see how many other soldiers Kennedy can recruit, to test the feelings of constituents, watch the trend of opinion polls and the next couple of primaries. In the nation's volatile mood, opinion samplings may prove to be false guides. The President's popularity has been gyrating, and so has Bobby Kennedy's. The last Gallup poll report, made before New Hampshire, had Johnson and Kennedy deadlocked at 41% each among all adults, with Johnson ahead by one point among Democrats. The figures represented gains by Kennedy since January, when Johnson led by ten points among all voters, but last fall Kennedy was farther ahead, 51% v. 39%. For Democratic leaders trying to decide which side of the fence to fall on, the process may take weeks or even months.

Some have already made up their minds. Chicago Mayor Richard Daley, czar of Illinois, pledged to hold his state's 118 delegate votes for Johnson--"if he is a candidate for reelection." New Jersey Governor Richard Hughes also took a Johnson loyalty oath--in the name of Kennedy. "It would be too bad," he said, "to see all the things accomplished by John F. Kennedy torn down and reversed."

The President himself has been playing the statesman in regard to election year. "I'll cross that bridge when I come to it," he says when asked about his plans, and he seems not to notice that the span is swaying in the storm. His attitude, says one analyst, has seemed to be "Shhh, there's no election. Let's not talk about it." Now the President is rethinking his strategy. At the weekend, his conclusions were secret. For the record, White House Press Secretary George Christian said that primaries were not among the President's "top priorities."

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