THE VULNERABLE BUDGET

EVEN in the most tranquil of times, a federal budget contains much guesswork: spending, revenues and general economic conditions for a period ending 18 months after the calculations are made must be reduced to hard figures. The Administration's fiscal-1969 budget presented to Congress this week contains more than the usual quota of uncertainties because of war, both raging and threatened, in Asia; volatility in the domestic and world economies; hostility to new taxes, and the fractiousness of election-year politics.

Lyndon Johnson met these vagaries headon, but the outcome of the collision cannot be known for months. He proposed for the year beginning July 1, $186.1 billion in "outlays"--a term covering expenditures and net lending under the new budget format--but this and other projections rested on expectations of a degree of cooperation from Congress that will most probably be withheld and of only a modest rise in Viet Nam expenses, which are really impossible to predict.

Ripples from Pueblo

Even before the 1,698 pages got to Congress, events threatened to overtake the budget. The Reserve forces called up cost $10 million a month while on active duty, and if they are kept in that status, the cost reduction of 13,000 mustered-out servicemen predicted by the budget will be canceled out. What further ripples will spread from the U.S.S. Pueblo can only be guessed at.

In any event, military needs continue to dominate federal spending. The Defense Department allocation is $76.6 billion, and related costs such as foreign military assistance and Atomic Energy Commission activities bring the total to $79.8 billion, an increase of $3.3 billion over this year. Total expenditures for Viet Nam are estimated as rising $1.3 billion, to $26.2 billion, or 14-c- of each $1 in federal outlay. Large as the military figure is, it provides for no dramatic expansion in any segment of the defense establishment. Nearly all the extra funds are absorbed by Viet Nam, higher pay scales, and relatively small increases.

On the domestic side, Johnson called for "selective expansion of existing programs, or new programs only as necessary to meet those urgent requirements whose fulfillment we cannot delay." In this category he asked for extra millions for the poverty program, ghetto rehabilitation, and expanded employment for the unskilled, as he had promised in his State of the Union address.

Jabs That Draw Blood

While most agencies are allocated more funds overall in the new budget than in the present one, Johnson claimed that he was making "reductions and reforms" in 50 individual programs, for a drop of $2.9 billion. Part of this apparent saving is a mirage arising from adroit bookkeeping, and some will not be felt until fiscal 1970. In terms of real expenditures in fiscal 1969, the reductions add up to $1.1 billion. One of the largest cuts is $447 million from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration. Other slices and stretch-outs were applied to construction of college facilities, roads, prisons, merchant-marine vessels and assorted other projects. Johnson's further jabs bloodied sacred cows at every turn, including agricultural loans, veterans' benefits and small-business assistance. Many of these programs have staunch friends in Congress, even among the most vociferous economizers.

"Faced with a costly war abroad and urgent requirements at home, we have had to set priorities," Johnson declared. "We cannot do everything we would wish to do." The logic is incontestable, but no one knows better than a President reared in Congress that his choices are painfully vulnerable to dissent.

This file is automatically generated by a robot program, so reader's discretion is required.