Long Hot Winter

New Hampshire ranks 43rd in state population, commands four electoral votes out of 538, will have only eight 1,333 delegates to the Republican National Convention, and is too insulated and ingrown to offer any faithful reflection of an urban nation's moods and problems. Each leap year, however, the Granite State's psephological irrelevance is submerged by the flood of publicity and punditry over its first-in-the-U.S. presidential primary.

In absolute terms, the March 12th balloting will mean little. Even Senator Norris Cotton concedes that his constituents' verdict is unreliable. "The average voter in New Hampshire," he said in an Atlantic interview,"feels ten feet high. He is thinking how his vote will have this terrific meaning for the whole country. He gets too thoughtful and self-conscious."

Needed Thrust. Nonetheless, the primary has for decades carried psychological significance as a political Ides of March from which candidates, both an nounced and unannounced, can emerge carrying the knife triumphantly in their hands or painfully in their ribs. This year the hoopla will be all the greater because both parties will participate in the winter sport--a condition assured last week when Minnesota Democrat Eugene McCarthy announced that he would add New Hampshire to the five other states in which he will give the party a pacific alternative to Lyndon Johnson's renomination.

Senator McCarthy bared his ribs with reluctance; he had been planning to go to Viet Nam instead. But his slow-starting challenge* to Johnson needed the thrust of a New Hampshire confrontation, hazardous though it is. Governor John King and Senator Thomas McIntyre are heading a write-in campaign for Johnson. Moreover, a write-in effort for Robert Kennedy could fragment the anti-L.B.J. vote that McCarthy hopes to capture. In another show of pugnacity, McCarthy hit both at Johnson and at critics of Johnson's Viet Nam policy who have refused to join McCarthy's cause, most notably Bobby Kennedy. To prove that it really wants peace, McCarthy said, the Administration should replace Secretary of State Dean Rusk. His swipe at Kennedy was more subtle and yet more cutting: "There seems to be a disposition to wait for a kind of latter-day salvation--like four years from now."

George's Afflictions. Ironically, McCarthy's impact on New Hampshire may well result in a better showing for Richard Nixon in his contest with George Romney in the Republican primary. Nixon's strongest support comes from regular Republicans, and he has espoused a consistent hard line on Viet Nam; some independents who might have gone for Romney may now be attracted to McCarthy.

The prospect of losing some independent supporters was only one of Romney's afflictions. In New Hampshire, a $10,000 poll financed by Romney's national organization showed that Nixon's 2-to-l lead has grown to nearly 3 to 1. Republican leaders in Wisconsin, Nebraska and Oregon, where primaries will be decided in April and May, believe that Nixon would clean up if the elections were held now.

Romney himself, returning from a monthlong, twelve-nation excursion, complained of "very negative" press coverage. Nixon, by contrast, was yachting off the Florida Keys, "doing some thinking and writing," according to an aide. Doubtless the pack leader was also keeping up with the news. One choice item: a prediction from Wisconsin's Melvin Laird, astute chairman of the House Republican Conference, that Nixon would get the nomination. "It was the reluctance of Governor Rockefeller to get out of the 1964 race early that nominated Goldwater," Laird said. "It is the reluctance of Governor Rockefeller to get into the race in 1968 that will nominate Dick Nixon."

Freudian Flub. For his part, Nelson Rockefeller last week once more danced a boost-Romney waltz. Romney's New Hampshire chairman, William Johnson, imported Rockefeller and Rhode Island Governor John Chafee in an effort to ignite some enthusiasm for his man. Dutifully, Rockefeller announced on arrival in Manchester: "I'm not going to be a candidate. I'm here to support George Romney." He repeated much the same message before 200 Republican workers, many of whom had served Rockefeller's cause in New Hampshire four years ago.

Rockefeller and Chafee ran through their old script stressing the importance of uniting behind a "moderate" and Romney's fine record as candidate and as Michigan Governor. The audience remained singularly unenthusiastic. Epitomizing the mood, Chafee was nine minutes into his twelve-minute talk before he thought to mention Romney's name, and he capped this with a possibly Freudian flub: "I'm pledging my wholehearted support for Governor Rock--er-er--Governor Romney."

Many in the audience seemed to be hoping that Nelson Rockefeller would make an open move toward the nomination himself, but Rockefeller offered little encouragement. He indicated that even a loss in New Hampshire would not be fatal to Romney, implying he would stick with the Michigander through one or more subsequent primaries and keep his promise to bar his own name from primary ballots.

On the other hand, Rockefeller hinted he might yet be available, albeit late in the nominating process. He repeated a previous statement that he would "have to face it" if a genuine draft materialized. Then he went an inch farther: "I can't conceive of any circumstances occurring in which I would be a candidate prior to the convention."

Assertive Non-Candidacy. Thus Rockefeller continues locked in his passive role. Only some cataclysmic development--such as Romney's voluntary withdrawal--can propel him into the early primaries. Nor does Rockefeller seem very much interested in shifting from Romney to Senator Charles Percy of Illinois.

Yet large as Nixon's lead seems at the moment, there remain obstacles. Romney plans 21 days of campaigning in New Hampshire beginning this week, and personal stumping is his strong suit. California's Ronald Reagan seems to be waiting on the right for Nixon to stumble, and meanwhile is making the most of his assertive noncandidacy. He will allow his name to appear on some primary ballots (though not in New Hampshire), perhaps benefit from write-ins elsewhere, and do some traveling to keep in trim. Next week he plans to speak at party fund-raising events in Tulsa, Pittsburgh, Philadelphia and St. Louis, make an address in New York and visit Washington. Nixon returns from his holiday this week to receive a Boy Scout award in New York and appear at a Richmond Chamber of Commerce meeting and on the Washington and Lee University campus. He is expected to make a formal announcement of his candidacy before his next scheduled appearance in New Hampshire on Feb. 3. Then the long hot winter will have begun in earnest.

* A Gallup poll published this week, however, gives McCarthy relatively good marks for a candidate in a four-way race. The results: Johnson, 39%; Richard Nixon, 30%; McCarthy, 12%; and George Wallace, 11%; the balance undecided.

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