Pocketbook Plebiscite

To Puerto Rico's supernationalists, the island's current status makes it nothing more than "a mistress of the U.S."

Whatever the relationship is called, it has certainly been a profitable one. Once pitied as the "poorhouse of the Caribbean," Puerto Rico is now the most prosperous Spanish-speaking region in the Western Hemisphere. As evidence of its new maturity, the island next week will decide whether it wants to become the 51st state, to strike an independent course, or to retain its status as a U.S. commonwealth.

Leader of the fight for continued commonwealth ties is Luis Munoz Marin, 69, a near-legendary figure among the island's ibaros (peasants). The country's first elected Governor (1948), Munoz retired three years ago in favor of his protege, Roberto Sanchez Vilella, but has remained a powerful force in favor of the commonwealth. When Governor Sanchez doomed his political career last March by spurning his wife of 31 years in favor of a comely aide, Munoz took over the Popular Democratic Party's drive to retain common wealth status. Ever since, he has been stumping like a young Congressman, speaking to small groups of party regulars and on radio and television. Once a hot-eyed independentista who called the U.S. an "opulent kleptomaniac," Munoz now argues persuasively, if melodramatically: "Statehood is the vulture that would sit over the corpse of the Puerto Rican economy."

Why Not Now? His major opponent is Luis A. Ferre, a politically ambitious industrialist with holdings in cement, clay, iron and glass who was twice defeated by Munoz in gubernatorial campaigns. Forming a nonpartisan group that is known as the United Statehooders, Ferre has developed considerable appeal to the island's growing middle-income group. "Don't you want to be first-class citizens?" asks Ferre. Statehood, he adds, is coming "eventually--so why not now?" Though the island's major statehood and independence parties have officially refused to endorse the plebiscite, factions of both groups are actively campaigning against the status quo.

Weighted against the undeniable emotional pull of either independence or statehood on the islanders, after nearly 69 years of dependency on the U.S., is the fact that Puerto Rico's commonwealth status is vastly advantageous to its 2,700,000 people, who enjoy U.S. citizenship and aid without having to pay federal taxes. Puerto Rico in the past 25 years has been transformed from an agricultural to an industrial society. Per capita income since 1940 has gone from $120 to $1,149, and the gross product has tripled in the past decade alone to $3 billion. Nearly 1,400 new factories have been attracted by Puerto Rico's alluring, long-term (ten to 17 years) tax exemptions and comparatively low wages, averaging $1.30 an hour. Where once sugar and other agricultural commodities accounted for a third of the country's income, last year they brought in just 7%, while industrial revenues totaled 24%. Already the fifth largest trading partner of the U.S. ($2.4 billion last year), Puerto Rico is expected to move into third place soon, behind Canada and Japan. In the past generation, illiteracy has shrunk from 31.5% to 14% (v. 6.5% in the U.S.), life expectancy has soared from 46 to 70 years, and such traditional killers as tuberculosis and malaria have been practically eliminated.

Under the Mountain. A measure of the island's social and economic progress is reflected in the fact that where Puerto Ricans once compared their standard of living with Latin American countries, now the U.S. is used as the yardstick. Per capita income still trails that of all 50 American states, though it is creeping up on Mississippi's $1,751. But even the most optimistic official projections indicate that the island's standard of living will not match the 1955 U.S. standard for another eight years. Clusters of slum shanties stand out among San Juan's flamboyant trees and white skyscrapers, and the unemployment rate lingers stubbornly around the 12% level.

Though statehood has grown markedly in popularity since Alaska and Hawaii joined the Union, and may draw as much as 30% in next week's vote, the plebiscite is likely to reflect pocketbook prejudices. The outlook is for most islanders to vote to remain "under the mountain," the Popular Party's symbol for commonwealth ties with the U.S.

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