THE NEWS-MOSTLY GOOD-BEYOND VIET NAM

IT sometimes seems that the U.S., like a man with an aching tooth, can think of nothing but Viet Nam. Man and nation begin to feel bad all over. But more detached historians could conclude that in the spring of 1967, the general state of the world is more promising than discouraging, more optimistic than gloomy. There is rapid, continuous change, and much of it is in the direction of hope and betterment.

One major factor is the altered character of the Communist challenge. By every indicator, Russia's two-headed leadership is cautious and conservative, having learned from the ignominious failure of Khrushchev's scary brinkmanship in Cuba. The result has been warily negotiated agreements with the U.S. on the peaceful use of outer space, reciprocal establishment of consulates, and the basis for a treaty restricting the spread of nuclear weapons. Equally significant, Russia and the East European Communist regimes have begun to abandon "command" economics. While certainly not decreeing instant free enterprise, they are taking into account the desires of their peoples for consumer comforts--and Western notions about how to achieve them through production incentives and market economies.

Botched Model New Courage

In Asia, Mao Tse-tung's Red Guards have destroyed the image of Red China as a seductive model for emerging countries and largely reduced the credibility of China as a military threat before whom her neighbors must cringe. In fact, while China has been thrashing in economic disorder, her neighbors have by and large prospered and plucked up their courage, partly--as Singapore's Lee Kuan Yew admitted publicly last week and other neutralist nations cautiously indicate in private--because of the U.S.'s determined stand in South Viet Nam.

In some of these countries, the U.S. can take credit for advice and aid. Japan, converted to democracy and free enterprise by the most remarkable military occupation in history, has built an economy that has far outpaced any other in Asia, and is now dispensing foreign aid itself. Despite perennial corruption, the Philippines has established itself as a vigorous and functioning democracy, sufficiently secure to be increasingly assertive in its relations with the U.S., and to become a leader in organizing such inter-Asian regional enterprises as the Asian and Pacific Council (ASPAC) and the Asian Development Bank. Taiwan, once cited as the supreme example of an economy artificially supported by outside (U.S.) aid, cut loose from all U.S. economic aid more than a year ago and is now sending technicians out on its own aid programs, notably to Africa. South Korea, with some 50,000 U.S. troops still stationed there to guard the northern border, has achieved a relatively stable government, and its economy is slowly improving.

If other Asian economies are less thriving, most are reversing the downward spiral. Indonesia, having bloodily saved itself from Communist takeover, now has to repair the intrinsically rich economy that Sukarno wrecked. Malaysia may yet fragment into its original pieces, but at least it has been relieved of the huge burden imposed by Indonesia's harassing little war. Prosperous Australia and New Zealand, though far to the south, now firmly consider themselves--and are accepted by Asians--as a part of Asia, and take a major hand in Asian councils. A U.S. observer summarizes: "The Asians are not thrashing around as much as they were even a year ago. Now, even if they're wobbly, they are essentially on their feet."

Pride & Breakup

In Europe, the good news has been obscured by the fact that one of its manifestations has been a sharp kick in the U.S.'s diplomatic shins: De Gaulle summarily threw the NATO command out of France. But it is a gesture that is, among other things, an expression of Europe's new and proper self-confidence. This new independence has only become possible under the shelter of U.S.-Russian detente. The relaxation operates on the other side as well. More and more, the satellite nations of Eastern Europe are asserting their independence of Moscow and reaching out toward their old neighbors in the West--and the U.S. is doing its best to encourage them. A big factor in this movement is a growing awareness among the satellites that conventional Communism--particularly when applied to an overall scheme designed chiefly to benefit the mother country--simply does not work as an economic system. The breakup began with Rumania's refusal to accept Russian directions at the 1961 COMECON meeting.

The resultant economic dialogue has lured some 500 Western firms to invest over $800 million in Eastern Europe, and every year the tide of Western tourists increases. West Germany's new Christian Democrat-Socialist coalition regime has made limited new East-West moves possible. While there is not yet any end in sight for Germany's geographical division, most East European governments have dropped the stultifying position that nothing can be discussed unless West Germany acknowledges East Germany as a sovereign state. This year Rumania defied the Kremlin to recognize West Germany--and both Hungary and Czechoslovakia want to follow suit.

Western Europe's Common Market is celebrating its tenth anniversary in a justifiably euphoric state of self-congratulation. Trade among the Six has increased 238% in those years, and the last internal tariffs will disappear by mid-1968. De Gaulle, who has kept Britain out, has at least brought stability to France, and his recent setback at the polls may reduce his room to maneuver mischievously abroad, forcing him to give long-overdue attention to social problems at home. More queasy is the state of Britain. Still, its economy has perked up a trifle, achieving its first substantial trading surplus in three years in the last quarter of 1966.

Amid Shouting, Bright Spots

Most equivocal area, and one latent with the most potential trouble, is what the State Department calls NEA--Near East and South Asia. India remains a lethargic giant, hamstrung by too many people, too little food, insufficient managerial skills. Pakistan still smoulders over Kashmir, but is edging away from its flirtation with Red China and seeking renewal of U.S. aid.

In the perpetually cloudy Middle East, Iran is a bright spot. In the country where landholders once owned whole provinces, the Shah's "white revolution" has distributed land to three out of ev ery four peasants, who later this year will vote in Iran's first elections for local and provincial councils. Another promising country is Libya, which in five years has risen from the lowly status of a backward state to the proud rank of the world's seventh largest oil producer.

In Saudi Arabia, King Feisal, in the 2 1/2 years since he displaced his wastrel brother Saud, has put his nation's huge income from oil ($700 million last year) to work building steel plants, refineries and fertilizer plants. But Feisal confronts Nasser on the barren battle fields of Yemen. Though there is no serious shooting there at the moment, their rivalry divides the whole Arab world into shouting camps. Cyprus still simmers, and Arab still glares at Israeli.

After Castro, Some Stirrings

At first glance, it would not seem that there was much good news out of Latin America. It is still beset by the manana complex, and in some countries, oligarchs still resist social and economic reform. But there are major trend-setting exceptions to this pattern in Peru, Chile and Venezuela, where progressive parties are increasingly powerful. In many countries, military regimes have taken over, but the new style of army officer is in many cases closer to the people than the politicians-of-privilege that they succeeded. In Brazil, for instance, army influence has meant at least the start of a turnaround from chaos to order, from corruption to responsibility.

Equally important is the collapse of Castroism. Once hailed all through Latin America as a champion of the downtrodden, Castro has ended by disillusioning all but his most fervent admirers. Today, Russia has to pump $1,000,000 a day into Cuba just to keep Castro going. In fact, Castro's expansive dreams of empire building have produced a constructive backlash. It speeded the launching of the Alliance for Progress, which has not exactly taken off in a big way but did stir some Latin regimes to take the first steps toward reform. And at long last, the Latin Americans are beginning to move toward regional collaboration and even a Latin American common market. The Central American Common Market, established in 1960, has proved a notable success, producing a threefold increase in trade volume in just five years.

Still Coups, Better Leaders

Even in Africa, seemingly always in the grip of coups and tribal clashes, there is clear progress if the continent is viewed in the longer perspective. Only six years ago, Patrice Lumumba, Sekou Toure and Kwame Nkrumah seemed the wave of the angry future, raging against the old rulers and demanding homage to their newfound importance. The Communists--Russian, Chinese, East German--swarmed through every new capital, offering ideological sympathy for their rage and flashy economic projects for their egos. Lumumba is long gone, Nkrumah is an exile, and Toure a diminished voice. Today's leading African figures are Jomo Kenyatta, Julius Nyerere, Kenneth Kaunda, and such durable elder statesmen as Haile Selassie and Felix Houphouet-Boigny; they range from staunchly anti-Communist to at least warily disenchanted. Ritual feelings about "neocolonialism" are giving way to practical attitudes bent on solving Africa's overwhelming problems. In Ghana, the new military government has replaced "Down with Neocolonialism" signs with others reading, "Ghana Welcomes Foreign Investment," and has invited Communist advisers to go home. In Tanzania, growing numbers of thinking Africans are unwilling to swap one imperialism for another.

Nowhere is there a sure guarantee of continued progress. The disparity between the world's rich and poor, underlined by the Pope's encyclical last week, remains a threat to the world's domestic tranquility and badly needs practical measures rather than emotional slogans. Bloodshed, revolution and disorder may erupt anywhere at any time. But rarely in recent decades have the signs been so relatively hopeful in so many places.

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