Plateau of Power

Despite its vast size and tremendous impact on overall federal spending, the $73.1 billion military budget actually represents a leveling off in the U.S. buildup in Viet Nam. American strength in Southeast Asia will continue to grow, along with its cost, but the pace of expansion will decelerate dramatically for two good reasons. One is that the U.S. has already reached a high plateau of power. Of equal significance, Defense Secretary Robert McNamara reported last week, the Viet Cong, during the last half of 1966, "appear to have lost about as many men as they were able to infiltrate from North Viet Nam and recruit in South Viet Nam." Quoting current intelligence estimates, McNamara put total "con- firmed" Communist strength in South Viet Nam at 275,000 men at the end of December, up 25,000 for the entire year. But since June, he said, the enemy has been unable to expand its forces-- apparently because of high casualties in the South, coastal surveillance and U.S. bombing in the North. He estimated the number of North Vietnamese regulars fighting in South Viet Nam at about 45,000, a number that has also re- mained stable since June.

Massive Expansion. By contrast, American manpower in the war zone has increased some 600% in 18 months, to 400,000. The present plan is to limit further reinforcements to approximately 75,000 troops this year. The logistical expansion has been equally massive: 24 major airfields where previously there were nine, ten important seaports completed or under construction compared with one. A fleet of 472 supply ships plies the route to South Viet Nam, and an average of 30 cargo planes arrives daily. By late 1966, according to Mc-Namara, the U.S. and its allies achieved a stupendous rate of fire: 1,700,000 artillery and mortar rounds and 100 million small-arms bullets per month.

U.S. officials have been haunted repeatedly in the past by optimistic predictions that turned sour, and last week they were hardly about to repeat the error. Deputy Defense Secretary Cyrus Vance said that the Administration assumed the war would go on "indefinitely" without "significant change." The military budget provides the funds for additional hard fighting--and for the equally important mission of pacification in the villages (see THE WORLD).

Holding the Line. For the first time, the Pentagon came up with a hard estimate of the military cost of Viet Nam: $5.8 billion during fiscal 1966, which ended June 30; a massive jump to $19.4 billion-for the current budget year; a far more modest rise to $21.9 billion for the year beginning July 1.

The rest of the new military budget will finance the gradual modernization and replenishment of the U.S. arsenal, a process that has become routine in the cold war. It provides no fancy new weapons except those previously planned. One such is the Poseidon missile, which will replace the less accurate and less powerful Polaris birds in the tubes of most of the 41 nuclear submarines. A contingency fund of $377 million is earmarked for initial production and deployment of antiballistic missiles in the event that negotiations with the Russians to bar such weapons fail. Thus, large as it is, the defense budget represents an attempt to hold the line on military spending--an attempt that is certain to be challenged by the 90th Congress.

* Inclusion of other, less direct costs brings the current annual estimate closer to $24 billion.

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