Missile Puzzle

The U.S. and the Soviet Union last week reached long-expected agreement on a treaty to ban all weapons from outer space. President Johnson called the international pact, which must yet be approved by the United Nations and ratified by individual governments, "the most important arms-control development since the 1963 treaty limiting nuclear tests. This treaty has historic significance for the new age of space exploration." Peace on earth will be more difficult to attain. Even as the space-treaty was announced, Russia and thef U.S. appeared headed toward what; could be a new round in the nuclear, arms race.

Less than a month after disclosing; Soviet efforts to erect a defensive shield of antiballistic missiles, Defense Secretary Robert McNamara revealed last; week that both Russia's defensive missile system and its long-range offensive missiles are going into place faster than U.S. intelligence sources had anticipated. The Russians, it is now estimated will have from 650 to 700 iCBMs in; place by 1968 instead of the 600 previously expected. Of greater consequence, its new anti-missile system, which was at first thought to be limited to such major cities as Moscow and Leningrad, is now believed to be spread through much of the country. Though its distribution is still spotty, it is beginning to bear the marks of a network of defensive missiles in a C-shape, with the open mouth of the C facing eastward to the vast China landmass. The system thus would be athwart practically every path that U.S. missiles -launched from silos in the continental U.S. or from aboard submarines in the Atlantic or Mediterranean -would have to cross in order to hit major cities and installations in the Soviet Union.

Keeping Mum. Russia's activity is bound to revive the debate about whether the U.S. should go ahead full steam with an anti-missile missile system of its own. More than $2 billion has already been spent to develop such a system built around the Nike-X missile, and the Joint Chiefs of Staff are unanimous in favoring its full deployment. Secretary McNamara, on the other hand, has steadfastly balked at the more than $30 billion that the antiballistic missile system would cost. He has claimed in the past that the program would not be effective without a shelter program to accompany it, and that, in any case, every $5 billion spent on a defensive program by either the U.S. or Russia could be canceled out by the expenditure of only $1 billion in added offensive weapons. Lately McNamara has been mum about Nike-X in deference to a pending decision by Lyndon Johnson about whether to deploy it.

U.S. experts are somewhat mystified by the new spurt of Russian missile activity, particularly since there has been no sign that the Soviets have embarked on a comprehensive shelter program to go with it. As some in the Pentagon see it, the Russians may be trying to put economic pressure on the U.S., figuring that their expenditures would be well worth it if they lead the U.S. to budget $30 billion or so on top of the rising expenses of the Viet Nam war. While the Russians obviously consider the U.S. their chief threat now, it may turn out that they are spending their money in the wrong place. The open, vulnerable end of that C faces Red China and, if Sino-Soviet relations continue to deteriorate as fast as they have been, Russian military men are bound to grow more nervous at the increasing power of China's nuclear arsenal.

Enough to Smash. In any case, the Russian anti-missile system is not about to change the balance of power. The U.S. still has far more missiles than it needs to smash the Soviet Union, antimissile system or not. Said McNamara: "Our strategic offensive forces have today and will continue to have in the future the capability of absorbing a deliberate first strike and retaliating with sufficient strength to inflict unacceptable damage upon the aggressor or any combination of aggressors."

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