A Question of How Big

Experts of every description--politicians and pundits, sociologists and foreign ministers--will dissect exhaustively the results of the 1966 midterm election in the U.S. Yet as the campaign moved into its final days, few could agree on any hard estimate of the outcome.

At stake are myriad local offices ranging from county sheriff to township assessor, more than 6,800 state legislative posts, 35 governorships, 35 U.S. Senate seats and all 435 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives. According to the polls, many Americans--up to 30% in certain races--have lodged themselves squarely in the "undecided" column, which could reflect a simmering, silent dissatisfaction within the electorate or merely a reluctance to size up the issues and candidates.

A Major Issue. There are a number of visible national issues. Housewives are generally unhappy about high food prices (see U.S. BUSINESS); businessmen and farmers are restive over tight money; many voters remain vaguely uneasy over the course of the Viet Nam war. Yet none of these attitudes by itself portends a great national shift of votes. While inflation is no doubt a factor in some contests, it has been defused, at least partially by the prevalence of high wages and prosperity.

Instead, the major issue may prove to be the largely unspoken but undeniable reaction of many white Americans against the Negro's gains and demands in the civil rights movement, an emotion-charged response encompassed by the catchall phrase "white backlash." A recent Republican poll shows that more than half the U.S. electorate feels that the Democratic Administration has moved too fast on civil rights; equally significant, some 60% of all Negroes acknowledge that their cause has been damaged by recent rioting and black-power militance. The race issue endangers liberals of both parties--a fact, ironically enough, that alarms organized labor, which itself all too often tolerates lily-white unions. 'Who can tell," asks one labor leader, "what this madness is going to do?"

Both parties are concentrating on congressional races, particularly for the 48 Democratic seats wrested from the G.O.P. in the 1964 Johnson landslide. With off-year elections traditionally favoring the out party, estimates of G.O.P. gains range all the way from ten to 75 seats. Conceding that the loss of even 25 seats could stall the Great Society, Democratic leaders are nonetheless confident that most of their freshmen Congressmen, beneficiaries of circumstance in 1964, can now hold their own. Says one L.B.J. aide: "They're our great plus factor this election."

A General Factor. Republicans, meanwhile, sense a widespread desire for new political leadership--a phenomenon one Congressman calls the "fresh-face syndrome." Besides strong gains in Congress, the G.O.P. is counting on capturing several key governorships--California, Minnesota, Arkansas --as a way of chemically rejuvenating their party. Richard Nixon calls the election "the most important of my lifetime," confidently predicts a G.O.P. gain of 40 House seats, three in the Senate, six governorships. To this, Vice President Hubert Humphrey replies: "I'll bet Nixon a 20-lb. Minnesota turkey against a dinner at any restaurant he chooses that his predictions are 50% wrong. When it's all over, we'll have the best damn dinner we've ever had at '21'."

Though party strategists speak warily of voter apathy, a record off-year turnout of 56 million--30 million Democrats, 26 million Republicans--is expected. The election stands in marked contrast with 1964, when the Goldwater candidacy distorted traditional voting patterns and moved 4,000,000 G.O.P. voters into the Democratic column. The impact of the Kennedy assassination, important in the 1964 vote, will have little or no effect this time around.

Perhaps the most important factor in this year's elections is general rather than specific. The voters are prey to a variety of frustrations--about the state of the economy, the progress of civil rights, the course of the war in Viet Nam. While each of these issues can cut either way, depending on the particular contest, overall they may spell trouble for the party in power. On the Viet Nam issue, in fact, the voter who feels that the war effort has not been vigorous enough, as well as one who feels that the U.S. should stop bombing and work harder for peace, could both wind up voting against the in party. The elections of 1966 seem sure to bring reverses for the Democratic Party, but just how big the Republican gain will be is a question no one can answer until after the polls have closed.

This file is automatically generated by a robot program, so reader's discretion is required.