A Little Realism

Soviet economic plans usually seem more like daydreams than serious forecasts of intended achievement. The classic was Nikita Khrushchev's seven-year plan (1959-65), which promised to make Russia a Communist Utopia by 1970, complete with the world's highest standard of living and largest industrial production. Moscow's new leaders are more realistic. Last week Premier Aleksei N. Kosygin unveiled a new five-year plan that takes up where Khrushchev's seven-year plan leaves off. Gone was the old bombast, the exuberance, the phony dreams. And gone--for once--was the promise of Utopia.

Emphasizing their new "language of truth," the Soviet planners admitted that the good life is still a good way off. By 1970 they expect the Soviet national income to be up 85% from 1960--impressive, but still only half of the Khrushchev goal. Where Khrushchev forecast an annual electric-power capacity of 950 billion kw-h by 1970, the new five-year plan predicts 840 billion kwh. Over the same period, steel production is supposed to climb to 124 million tons a year (v. Khrushchev's 145 million tons), oil production to 355 million tons a year (v. Khrushchev's 380 million tons), and fertilizer output to 62 million tons annually (v. Khrushchev's 77 million tons). In agriculture, Khrushchev had called for an 8% annual increase in grain production and a total crop of 229 million tons by 1970. The new plan projects a more realistic 4% yearly increase and a 170 million-ton crop by 1970.

As part of their new realism, the Soviet planners also softened the emphasis on heavy industry and called for more consumer goods. By 1970 they hope to double production of television sets, treble the production of refrigerators and quadruple the production of cars. Yet even if Soviet automakers reach the goal--some 800,000 units a year--output would still amount to little more than one-twelfth of the U.S. production in 1965.

Some Western Kremlinologists felt that the revised goals were within reach; others, that they were still a shade too high. Either way, they underscored the tremendous economic problems that Moscow faces. With 45% of the American G.N.P. and a population 20% larger than that of the U.S., Russia must shoulder a heavy arms burden, support costly space research, and at the same time meeting the growing and impatient expectations of 232 million people.

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