A Balance of Weaponry

THE MIDDLE EAST

When word leaked out a year ago that West Germany was supplying Israel with $80 million worth of "secondhand" Patton tanks, the response from the Arab world was torrential in its outrage. All but three of the 13 Arab countries (Morocco, Tunisia and Libya) broke diplomatic ties with Bonn, and Egypt's Nasser threatened the ultimate retaliatory blow: recognition of East Germany. Chancellor Ludwig Erhard hastily suspended the shipments and vowed never to panzer to Israel again. Last week the U.S. confirmed that it had picked up the tank deal with Israel where Bonn had left off. This time the flow of Arab abuse that followed could have been dammed by a Dutchman's finger. Reason: the U.S. coolly pointed out that it had sold arms to the Arabs too.

Tactical Edge. Apart from an editorial yelp or two in Syria and Egypt, plus the predictable pro forma tongue-lashings for U.S. ambassadors in Arab capitals, the Arabs reacted to the announcement of U.S. sales to the Israelis with an aplomb that made it seem that they had known about the deal all along. Increasing Arab disunity and Egypt's heavy reliance on American foodstuffs put a damper on indignation--and so did the nimble manner in which Washington handled the revelation. By sending 100 tanks to Jordan last fall and then teaming with the British in a $400 million air-defense deal with Saudi Arabia, the U.S. had quelled cries of favoritism even before they could be raised. Only Syria and Yemen (which get most of their aid from Russia) seemed likely to break off relations with Washington.

The U.S. sees no inconsistency in providing weapons to both sides of the unstable Middle Eastern power equation. For more than a decade, sometimes by proxy, the U.S. has been engaged in an effort to maintain a "balance of weaponry" between Israel and the Arabs. Indeed, it was the U.S. that financed Bonn's embarrassing tank deal. The Soviet Union has pumped a cool $1 billion worth of arms and aircraft into the Arab world in an effort to unbalance the situation. Earlier this month, a flight of supersonic MIG-21D fighters roared into Cairo, giving Egypt a clear tactical edge over Israel's slower, French-built Mirage III-Cs. Also delivered: two Soviet submarines and a brace of destroyers.

Tel Aviv or Beirut? Nasser hopes, of course, that in a few years there will be no need for such antiquarian arms as tanks, ships and planes. Egypt is developing three brands of short-range missile--the 230-mile-range Al Zafer (Victorious), the 375-mile Al Kaher (Conqueror) and the 500-mile Al Raid (Pioneer). Linked with the nuclear warheads that Nasser hopes to develop or acquire, they might give him the upper hand over Israel, provided the

U.S. and Britain did not interfere. Even at that, though, the Israelis seem pretty safe. As one West German rocketeer in Egypt mourns: "Our guidance systems are so unreliable that if we were to aim for Tel Aviv, it's an even bet that we'd hit Beirut."

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