How Much Longer?

OARGENTINA

It should be a cause for celebration whenever a Latin American government stages an honest election. Not so last week in Argentina. President Arturo Illia, a sometime physician, held an unrigged vote in the steaming, depressed northern province of Jujuy and was all but wiped off the slate. Illia's People's Radicals won only six seats in the 30-man provincial legislature.

The big winners, of course, were the Peronista parties, which got 23 seats, the governorship and 71% of the vote. It was the latest testimony to the lasting popularity of ex-Dictator Juan Domingo PerOn, 70, who, from his exile in Spain, still commands the hearts, if not the heads, of some 3,000,000 Argentines. In Jujuy (pronounced who-hooey), Peron's descamisados (shirtless ones) have always been especially strong; nationally, Peronistas have generally claimed from a fourth to a third of the ballots since the strongman was deposed ten years ago. Only the strong hand of the military, which threw him out in the name of constitutional government, keeps him from returning--legitimately--to power. In March 1962, after Peronistas captured the governorships of nine provinces and won 44 seats in the national legislature, the military deposed President Arturo Frondizi, and managed to get Illia elected by disqualifying Peronista candidates for the electoral college. The Jujuy results raised an interesting question: If he keeps on losing elections, how much longer will the generals tolerate Dr. Illia?

The answer seems to be: until he loses a crucial one. In off-year elections for the lower house in 1965, the Peronistas gained 44 seats again, but the People's Radicals still held 70, and thus maintain a tenuous control of the legislature. Two other minor provinces, Chaco and Neuquen, have also elected Peronista governments, but no major provinces will go up for grabs until March 1967. Since the military still believes in constitutional government, no golpe seems unavoidable before then.

On the other hand, a good many officers are distinctly not happy about the bumbling, ineffectual way Dr. Illia has been running things. He has done little to check what many officers regard as a dangerous infiltration of Castroites in key labor unions, or to control the cost of living, which has risen 63% over the past two years. Last week, in blatant defiance of the government's 15% wage-boost guideline for public employees, the Peronista-controlled Light and Power Workers' Union forced the state-owned utility to grant its 49,000 members a 32% raise.

Dr. Illia's best protection, so far, has been a deep split in Peronista ranks between those led by Augusto ("El Lobo") Vandor, who would like to exercise power in PerOn's name, and those, marshaled in Argentina for the past four months by shapely Isabel PerOn, el lider's third wife, who would--understandably--favor el retorno of PerOn from Spain. Even that diversion may soon end. Last week El Lobo ("the Wolf") ousted Isabella's chief lieutenant, Jose Alonso, as general secretary of the giant General Confederation of Labor. If Peronism should ever triumph, it looks more and more as though the strongman will have to enjoy his reign mainly from Spain.

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