The "He Could" Phenomenon

Nationwide polls showed Barry Goldwater trailing Lyndon Johnson by nearly 2 to 1. Bitter Republican moderates continued to shy away from Goldwater's candidacy. Civil rights leaders denounced him and the Ku Klux Klan endorsed him. Reinhold Niebuhr's Protestant magazine, Christianity and Crisis, concluded that Barry's views were "diametrically opposed" to the stand of the three major U.S. faiths on questions of international relations, civil rights and economic policy. And Chicago's Second City satirists were breaking up audiences with the gag: "Question: What's the latest elephant joke? Answer: Barry Goldwater."

Despite all this, the biggest buzz of political talk last week centered on surprising new appraisals of Goldwater's chances for victory in November. Taking the current political temperature on a selective basis, reporters found much evidence pointing to pockets of strength for Barry, so much so that even hitherto cocky Democrats began to rethink the unthinkable question, "Could he win?"--and the answer came up, "By gosh--he could!"

"The Fervor, the Religion." Barry was abloom in the South. Florida's Democratic candidate for Governor, Haydon Burns, said last week that he would not campaign for his party's national ticket, and added: "I expect the Republican candidate will have strong support in Florida." Louisiana's Democratic Governor John McKeithan ad mits that he may well decide to back Barry. The recent Mississippi Democratic convention was filled with pro-Goldwater sentiment. Georgia's Democratic Senators Richard Russell and Herman Talmadge both predict privately that today Barry could carry their state. Pollster Sam Lubell discov ered last week that Goldwater is, as of now, running ahead of Johnson in Florida, Virginia, South Carolina and North Carolina. In Texas, Lubell found Lyndon holding an uneasy lead that could quickly vanish under the pressure of civil rights troubles.

Beyond the South, a Christian Science Monitor survey showed Goldwater leading Johnson in Arizona, Idaho, Montana, Wyoming, Maine, Kentucky, Indiana, Nebraska and Kansas. Critical California still seemed doubtful for Barry. California Secretary of State Frank Jordan, a Republican who felt Barry was already attracting a good deal of new support, said: "There's only one reason for it--and that's the protest against what's going on in civil rights." Democratic State Chairman Eugene Wyman admits that "it's going to be a tough fight. The people who support Goldwater have got the fervor, the religion, and as a result they are going to mount a much bigger volunteer effort than Republicans ever did before."

"Not a Politician." In the Midwest, long a G.O.P. heartland, the people in the small towns and on the farms largely back Barry. There is also support surfacing in the cities. Racial feelings run deep and pro-Goldwater sentiment high in Cleveland, St. Louis, Gary, Chicago and Detroit, where much of the giant Democratic urban machinery has become rusty and undependable since 1960. Cook County Sheriff Richard Ogilvie, an able politician and one Republican who survived the 1962 election against Chicago's Mayor Richard Daley's legions, thinks the Daley juggernaut has lost a lot of steam, and predicts flatly if bravely: "Goldwater will carry Cook County."

Illinois' G.O.P. Gubernatorial Candidate Charles Percy, a lukewarm Barry backer, found a Barry groundswell too. Said he: "I feel it among independent, small home owners, in ethnic groups of all kinds, and among rural people. They say Goldwater is a man of courage, of integrity, of character--those are the words they're using at the popular level. They say he says what he means and talks straight. They say he's not a politician."

In Ohio, which Richard Nixon carried handily in 1960, and in Michigan, where John Kennedy won by a hair, Democrats are worried. Highly attractive Republicans are running for office in both states--Governor George Romney in Michigan and Senatorial Candidate Robert Taft Jr. in Ohio: both could be of considerable help to Barry.

The Party Doctor. Goldwater will now clearly try to keep the surge rolling with a strong underpinning of effort and organization. Last week he set up a campaign organization and made his opening moves toward party unity. He named a steering committee that included two of the G.O.P.'s most highly regarded tacticians, former National Chairman Leonard Hall and Ohio's State Chairman Ray Bliss. He also phoned his convention foe, Pennsylvania Governor William Scranton, arranged a Republican "summit meeting" next week in Hershey, Pa., and invited key Republicans to attend.

Understandably, Barry Goldwater sounded pretty sure of himself, particularly about efforts to doctor his party's post-convention wounds. Said he: "I expected that we were going to be struggling with divisive problems until the middle of August. Now I feel that we have arrived at the place where we're three or four weeks ahead of schedule. I'm very, very pleased with the way the Republican Party seems to be coming back together."

Certainly, it is too early to establish odds on the election. The areas of Goldwater strength are selective and outside the big power centers, such as New York and Pennsylvania. Barry is still flying high on the cloud of post-convention momentum that buoys any newly anointed candidate. Lyndon Johnson has not yet begun to fight. And beyond this, Barry is riding on a wave of white backlash against the summer's civil rights violence that could rise or diminish between now and November. With all these areas of doubt, the political news last week was that so many people in so many places were talking about the possibility of a Goldwater victory.

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