The Man to Beat

Suddenly, like a brush fire racing out of control, the word crackled among informed Republicans: Goldwater's almost got it.

It seemed hardly possible. Here was Arizona's Barry Goldwater, who only a few weeks ago appeared to be flat on his back in his quest for the G.O.P. presidential nomination. He had been counted out because of the supposed political effects of John Kennedy's assassination and Lyndon Johnson's accession to the White House. He had been counted out as he campaigned about the country seeming to hate every minute of it and, entirely too often, shooting from the lip. He had been counted out as the polls showed his popularity dipping drastically. And he had been counted out after his loss in the New Hampshire primary.

Yet as of last week, Goldwater was clearly the man to beat in San Francisco come July. This was what top Republicans finally realized, having taken out their pencils and started totting up the only thing that really counts at a convention. It took them quite a while to get around to the tallying process, but there were several reasons for the delay: -- There was the national preoccupation with primaries, which usually make more headlines than delegates. All Goldwater actually lost in New Hampshire was 14 delegates, a mere handful. When he won in Illinois, there were ohs and ahs about the size of the vote for Maine's Senator Margaret Chase Smith, about the write-ins for Henry Cabot Lodge and Richard Nixon. Yet it was Goldwater who gathered up at least 47 delegates. Last week in Massachusetts, Native Son Lodge amassed a 69,000-vote write-in, against only 9,000 for Runner-Up Goldwater. In Pennsylvania, Governor William Scranton piled up some 225,000 write-ins to break the record of 183,000 set by Jack Kennedy in 1960. Lodge got an impressive 80,000 in Scranton's home territory, Nixon received 37,000 and Goldwater was a poor fourth with 33,000. All but unnoticed was the fact that Goldwater snatched a few delegates from beneath the noses of the native sons--two or three in Pennsylvania, four or five in Massachusetts.

> There was the obsession with polls. For months, surveys have shown Goldwater's stock down with "rank and file" Republicans and with that elusive voter classified as "independent." This week the Gallup poll reported Lodge favored by 37% of Republicans, Nixon by 28% , Goldwater by 14%, Rockefeller by 9% and Scranton by 4% . Such figures have fooled a lot of people into thinking that Goldwater was through. But no pollster has ever nominated a presidential candidate, and Goldwater has been and remains the favorite of G.O.P. professionals--the people who go to conventions.

> There was the generally muddled Republican situation. With the party's highest prize up for grabs, the G.O.P. presidential contest should have been a rousing, issue-sharpening affair. Instead, it has turned out to be a thumping bore. Then President Johnson's rising popularity seemed to make the whole show academic. Ironically, Goldwater gained strength from his party's defeatist attitude. Since no Republican had a chance against Johnson anyhow, the argument went, why not let the party's conservative wing have the nomination it has been demanding for so long?

Thus, slowly but steadily, Goldwater kept collecting delegates while the unavoweds and the disavoweds collected press clippings. The success of his efforts was dramatically disclosed in a secret survey just completed by a group of the G.O.P.'s most experienced professionals. The canvass, based on conversations with state and county Republican leaders over a national telephone network, was deliberately cautious: wherever a delegate's loyalty was in doubt, his vote was not counted in Goldwater's column. The poll's projections, state by state:

Alabama, all 20 delegates for Goldwater; Arizona, all 16; Arkansas, 11 of 12; Florida, 32 of 34; Georgia, all 24; Idaho, 12 of 14; Illinois, 47 of 58; Indiana, all 32; Iowa, 10 of 24; Kansas, 15 of 20; Louisiana, all 20; Maryland, 15 of 20; Minnesota, 11 of 26; Mississippi, all 13; Missouri, 20 of 24; Montana, all 14; Nebraska, all 16; Nevada, all 6; New Mexico, 10 of 14; North Carolina, 20 of 26; North Dakota, 6 of 14; Oklahoma, all 22; South Carolina, all 16; South Dakota, all 14; Tennessee, 20 of 28; Texas, all 56; Utah, all 14; Virginia, 26 of 30; Wyoming, all 12.

Feeling Chipper. These alone would give Goldwater 550 first-ballot votes of the 655 he needs for nomination. But Goldwater also has impressive reserve strength in some of the states presently planning to support favorite sons on the first ballot. Among these are Ohio with 58 delegates, Michigan with 48, Wisconsin with 30, Kentucky with 24, Colorado with 18 and Maine with 14.

Colorado, for example, has Senator Gordon Allott as its favorite son. But there is strong Goldwater sentiment in Colorado and Allott can probably swing most of the delegation to Barry whenever he wishes.

These facts and figures have left the Goldwater forces feeling understandably chipper. Realizing that Barry could still blurt out some remark that would hurt his cause, they plan from now on to keep him pretty much off the stump, concentrate instead on a series of filmed, edited, nationwide television appearances. And already they are talking about a possible running mate for Goldwater. The most logical choice: Scranton, whose state, with its 29 electoral votes, would be vital to a successful campaign.

But such confident Goldwater talk fails to take into account what could be a real stumbling block to Barry's ambitions: the June 2 California primary. Goldwater has already virtually conceded the May 15 Oregon primary, and a loss there figures to do little more than further flaw his image as a popular vote getter. But California is different.

Time to Combine. For one thing, Goldwater badly wants the state's 86 delegate votes, which might put him over the top at the San Francisco convention. For another, Goldwater has placed his political prestige squarely on the line in California, to the point of saying that if he does not win in California, he doesn't deserve the nomination. Thus, a California loss might cause second thoughts in the minds of some delegates who presently favor Goldwater.

California's is a winner-take-all primary between Goldwater and Rockefeller, with no other candidates entered and no write-in votes counted. With the stakes involved, it would seem good political sense for all anti-Goldwater forces to combine behind Rocky in an effort to head Barry off. But so far only the Lodge camp has made a tentative offer of cooperation, and little has come even of that.

It goes without saying that a lot can happen in the two months before the Republican convention. But as far as a stop-Goldwater movement is concerned, the best place for something to happen would certainly be in California. If it doesn't, then the Republican presidential race may be all over except for the convention shouting of "The Man Who. . . ."

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