New Voice of Moderation

Bolivian politics is a game of Byzantine intrigue in which only the master of sly maneuver can hope to survive. In and out of office, the master for the past dozen years has been moderate President Victor Paz Estenssoro, 56, a pale, impassive economist whose term ends this year. After fending off successive threats from an old foe on the far left and a rising political figure on the right, Paz has now paved the way for almost certain re-election in May.

Saved by the Wings. The first challenge came from ambitious Juan Lechin, the leftist Vice President, who has been at loggerheads with Paz ever since they rose to power in the 1952 revolution that toppled the Andean country's feudal tin-mining aristocracy. Unable to patch up their differences at the ruling M.N.R. party convention in January, Paz had himself nominated for another term as President, while Lechin was drummed out of the party. Then Lechin called a rump convention at which he tried to rig an anti-Paz alliance of Communists and disgruntled rightists. He vowed to "work for the liberation of the Bolivian people, who have been defrauded," but his coalition never got off the ground.

Replacing Lechin on the M.N.R. ticket stirred up an unexpected storm. Paz hand-picked lackluster Senate President Federico Fortun Sanjines as his new running mate, thereby offending several prominent right-wing M.N.R. leaders, whose vice-presidential choice was General Rene Barrientos Ortuno, 44, Bolivia's crewcut, U.S.-trained air force commander. Unmoved by their protests, Paz was all set to send Barrientos into semi-exile as ambassador to London, a classic Bolivian ploy for settling intraparty disputes. Then, late one night last month, Barrientos was mysteriously ambushed and shot. The U.S. command pilot wings on his right chest deflected the bullet, and Barrientos was not seriously wounded. Instead, the assassination attempt made him a hero. Sniffing the wind, Paz persuaded Fortun to resign from the ticket. When Barrientos returns soon to La Paz from a Canal Zone hospital, it will be as the M.N.R.'s vice-presidential nominee.

Castro Reconsidered. Paz and Barrientos together could well reshape Bolivian politics. Over the past two years, while striving to put the near-bankrupt nation on a solid economic footing, Paz has drawn away from his more radical advisers. Barrientos, the only political figure since the revolution who is outspokenly antiCommunist, argues that the government should break off diplomatic relations with Cuba. If he has his way, Bolivia's decision to sever ties with Castro might lead to new consideration of such action by some or all of the other four hemisphere holdouts: Brazil, Chile, Mexico, Uruguay.

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