The Reassessment

Immediately after President Kennedy's assassination, top Republicans declared a month-long moratorium on partisan political activity. But under the U.S.'s tried and true system, such a moratorium fits a politician about as well as a bottle fits a bumblebee. And by last week the buzzing about 1964's G.O.P. presidential possibilities was being heard all over.

Almost everyone agreed that things had changed--if only because the Republican nominee would presumably be facing President Johnson instead of Kennedy. One of the first to concede this fact was Arizona's Senator Barry Goldwater, who candidly said that he was not quite certain about how to run against Johnson. Said Goldwater: "Johnson has been a liberal, a conservative, and is now a liberal again. The man personally is conservative. We'll have to wait and see."

If Barry was confused, so were almost all other Republicans when talking about next year's presidential possibilities. Yet a state-by-state canvass of G.O.P. leaders led to some general conclusions. Among them:

> Goldwater has been hurt--but re mains the man to beat.

-- Richard Nixon emerges as a strong possibility--on paper. But few Republican leaders anywhere feel very enthusiastic about his candidacy.

> Nelson Rockefeller gains little.

>Michigan's Governor George Romney is in deep political trouble in his own state, seems unlikely either to seek or get the nomination for President.

>Pennsylvania's Governor William Scranton gets more new momentum than anyone. But he still is not nationally known, and much of the increased interest in him is expressed in such phrases as "Tell us more about him."

Goldwater: New Arithmetic. Goldwater already had scores of probable 1964 convention delegates committed to him. He would still be favored to win the important New Hampshire and California presidential primaries in a two-man contest with Nelson Rockefeller.

In a campaign against Kennedy, Goldwater had figured to do well in the Far West, the Midwest and the South. But take away any one of those regions and he did not stand a chance. Now, against Texas' Johnson, the South is at best improbable. Says one Southern state Republican leader: "In a race between Goldwater and Kennedy, we wouldn't have lost but one or two of the Southern and border states. If it's Goldwater and Johnson, we might lose five, six, or seven."

Still, most Southern Republican leaders are determined to do or die with Goldwater. Insists South Carolina's G.O.P. State Chairman Drake Edens: "Nothing has really changed. With no attempt to disparage President Kennedy, a dedicated New England liberal has simply been replaced by a dedicated Southwestern liberal. Long before November 1964, President Johnson will have dispelled all wishful thinking on the part of Southerners that he is any kind of conservative Southerner at all."

Goldwater's earlier Republican support remains remarkably solid even outside the South. Says Illinois' G.O.P. Gubernatorial Candidate Charles Percy, who is certainly no right-winger: "Since Johnson took office, I've traveled from 1,200 to 1,500 miles around the state, and I haven't met one Goldwater backer who has changed his mind." Says Wyoming's State Chairman John Wold: "Goldwater has been hurt in our state, but he can still carry it." Says Denver County Chairman Robert Lee: "Goldwater sentiment remains very strong in Colorado."

Only in one key state for Republicans was a really discordant note heard. In Ohio, U.S. Representative Robert Taft, son of the late great Mr. Republican, announced his 1964 candidacy for the Senate seat of Incumbent Dem ocrat Stephen Young, told newsmen that a national Republican ticket headed by Goldwater "would make it difficult" for his senatorial campaign in Ohio.

Goldwater himself was plainly feeling some pain. "I'm in a position of major reassessment," he told newsmen. "My people are out all over the country asking questions." As for Johnson, Goldwater said: "I like him. I think he has a chance to be a good President, a great President."

Nixon: No Steam Yet. Nixon, who was formally admitted to the New York bar last week, was still biding his time. Yet, as everyone knows, the nomination must now seem vastly more valuable to him than it did before Kennedy's death.

Nixon refused to comment on re ports that a slate of delegates pledged to him would be entered in the New Hampshire primary. Even if it was, he would almost certainly refuse to campaign actively. He has no real base of operations: he cannot count on New York (it's Rockefeller territory), and he has few friends in California because of his humiliating 1962 loss to Democrat Pat Brown for Governor, his ungraceful acceptance of defeat, and his change of residence to New York. As for most of the rest of the country, the view of Colorado's Republican Governor John Love is fairly typical: "I am not opposed to Nixon personally, but I do hope we don't have to go back to someone who has been twice defeated."

Rockefeller: Still Trying. New York's Governor remains the only announced candidate, and he has no intention of giving up. But in the aftermath of the assassination, he is considering a change of tactics--presumably in order to emphasize the similarities in his own philosophy and Kennedy's. Explains one aide: "They say Nelson is too much like Kennedy was. Well, if Kennedy had that appeal in the North, so will Nelson." A Michigan Republican puts it in another, less lofty way: "Rocky looks a lot more like Kennedy than Johnson does, and he's been geared up and actively going after the nomination. This helps him mechanically."

But how much? Many Republican leaders just do not consider Rocky a Republican. They seized upon his divorce and remarriage as an excuse for expressing their previous sentiments. They were further angered when he equivocated on whether or not he would support Goldwater in case the Arizonan beat him. Any increased feeling for

Rocky among Republican leaders is yet to come.

Scranton: Ready to Try? In many ways, Governor Scranton would seem a natural. He is the young (46), smart, tough chief executive of a big Northeastern industrial state--a state of the sort that Republicans presumably would have a much better chance of carrying against Johnson than against Kennedy. Scranton has had Washington experience (Congress and the State Department), and he won his present job in a rock-'em-sock-'em campaign.

While Kennedy was still President, Scranton sounded terribly convincing in his denials that he had any presidential ambition. But in the last few days he has been under increasing pressure to make a try, and some of his friends think that they can see him beginning to sway.

Scranton's earlier reluctance kept him out of national Republican Party factions and fights. That is now to his advantage. Yet at the same time it prevented him from becoming nationally known. And that, at least in traditional political terms, would be to his disadvantage. A top Missouri Republican denies this. "Some people," he says, "think that Scranton is not well known enough. But today, with TV, newspapers and magazines, you can sell a man overnight."

Perhaps so--but perhaps not. And if Scranton is to nourish any real hope, he cannot wait for rivals to kill each other off, and must surely try his vote-getting powers in at least a few presidential primaries. For whoever wins the Republican nomination at San Francisco in July will have won some primaries.

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