BOX SCORE FOR '64
Can Anybody Beat Kennedy?
UNTIL recently most political observers figured that Democrat John Kennedy was a sure 1964 winner, and that it did not make much difference who the G.O.P. candidate would be. Now, many are changing their minds. To be sure, a President is historically at low ebb at the tag end of a pre-election year, and between now and November 1964 a lot of things can happen--and probably will. But a state-by-state survey by TIME correspondents indicates that at least Republican Barry Goldwater could give Kennedy a breathlessly close contest. The results (electoral votes in parentheses):
Alabama (10). Because of civil rights, any Republican except Rockefeller could win. But Governor George Wallace is urging a slate of unpledged electors, will probably get what he wants.
Alaska (3). Since its economy relies heavily on federal spending projects, Alaska distrusts Fiscal Conservative Goldwater, would likely switch from its 1960 G.O.P. vote.
Arizona (5). Native Son Goldwater handily.
Arkansas (6). An edge to Goldwater --especially if Governor Orval Faubus, a Kennedy critic, were to sit it out.
California (40). Efforts to build a favorite-son movement around G.O.P. Senator Thomas Kuchel have failed so far. Goldwater leads Rockefeller for the state's convention votes--but with the G.O.P split, Kennedy would have a narrow margin over either Republican.
Colorado (6). Under Chairman Jean Tool, Colorado Republicans are organized so efficiently that Goldwater, Rockefeller or Romney could beat Kennedy.
Connecticut (8). Rockefeller would be the strongest Republican, but Kennedy would beat him.
Delaware (3). Reasonably safe for Kennedy.
District of Columbia (3). With its heavy concentration of Negroes and federal employees, the District, voting for the first time, is strong for Kennedy.
Florida (14). Floridians much prefer Goldwater's views on civil rights and policy toward nearby Cuba.
Georgia (12). If only on its record as the single state that has invariably voted Democratic, Kennedy is favored. But Goldwater might break through.
Hawaii (4). Rocky is stronger than Barry--but Kennedy would win over either.
Idaho (4). Most any Republican can . take Idaho.
Illinois (26). A weak Democratic Governor, Otto Kerner, is up for reelection and figures to hurt the ticket. Racial tensions are plaguing Chicago Mayor Daley's Democratic machine. Kennedy won by a mere 8,800 votes in 1960, would probably lose the state to Goldwater today. If they convinced Illinois that they are not too liberal, Romney and Scranton would also have a chance.
Indiana (13). Any Republican except Rockefeller.
Iowa (9). Also safe for the G.O.P. unless Rocky is the candidate.
Kansas (7). Even Rockefeller could win.
Kentucky (9). Although a growing Negro registration helps the Democrats, right now both Goldwater and the state's own Thruston Morton have an edge over Kennedy.
Louisiana (10). Goldwater could win. Any other Republican probably would lose to a slate of unpledged electors.
Maine (4). Any Republican.
Maryland (10). Goldwater seems slightly ahead of Rockefeller, but neither is a match for Kennedy.
Massachusetts (14). The Kennedys call this "home"--with good reason.
Michigan (21). Governor Romney would be the strongest Republican candidate. Kennedy could be hurt by growing resentment of low-income whites toward federal integration pressures. Yet he is still favored.
Minnesota (10). Republicans are so demoralized by recent upsets (loss of the Governor's office, defeat of Representative Walter Judd) that Kennedy looks stronger than when he barely beat Nixon.
Mississippi (7). Probably a slate of unpledged electors.
Missouri (12). Democratic Governor John Dalton, who carried the state by some 300,000 votes in 1960 while Kennedy was squeaking past Nixon by 10,000, publicly concedes that Kennedy is in trouble. A bitter primary among Dalton's would-be successors is shaping up, and the civil rights issue hurts Democrats in the "Little Dixie" section.
Goldwater has an edge.
Montana (4). Kennedy's chances of taking Montana away from the G.O.P. depend largely on the economic welfare of wheat farmers. They have had a good year, so Kennedy has a slight lead.
Nebraska (5). All for Goldwater.
Nevada (3). Goldwater, the strongest Republican, would have only an outside chance against Kennedy.
New Hampshire (4). Apparently safe for any Republican who gets the nomination.
New Jersey (17). Rockefeller, though slipping, is still stronger than Goldwater. But Kennedy should increase his 1960 margin of 22,000.
New Mexico (4). Kennedy seems stronger than in 1960, when he barely won.
New York (43). Understandably, Rockefeller would run the best race against Kennedy. But even here, Rocky is hurt by his remarriage and by state fiscal problems. By educated estimate, Kennedy would beat him by upwards of 300,000 votes.
North Carolina (13). The civil rights issue hurts both Kennedy and the President's staunch ally, Democratic Governor Terry Sanford. Goldwater probably leads.
North Dakota (4). As usual, a Republican state.
Ohio (26). State Republicans fear that Goldwater would reintroduce the controversial right-to-work issue which was the thing that defeated Senator John Bricker in 1958. They would probably prefer either Romney or Scranton. Even so, Ohio Republicans are well organized under able Chairman Ray Bliss; and eccentric Democratic Senator Stephen Young is expected to be a drag on the ticket against the probable candidacy of Robert Taft Jr. So Goldwater, too, would be favored over Kennedy.
Oklahoma (8). The death of Senator Robert Kerr robbed Oklahoma Demo crats of their most effective leader.
Nixon carried the state in 1960. Re publicans elected their first Governor in history last year. Goldwater could defeat Kennedy.
Oregon (6). With G.O.P. Governor Mark Hatfield as running mate, Romney, Rockefeller or Scranton could win Oregon. Even though Goldwater and Hatfield, as fellow Westerners, would not likely be paired as running mates, Barry seems to have a small margin over Kennedy.
Pennsylvania (29). Democrats are having factional trouble in Philadelphia, but Kennedy seems stronger in the rest of the state than in 1960. Even Gover nor Scranton would be an underdog against him.
Rhode Island (4). Republicans see little chance of beating Kennedy.
South Carolina (8). Again because of the thorny civil rights issue, Goldwater leads Kennedy.
South Dakota (4). Goldwater could check a drift to the Democrats.
Tennessee (II). Nixon carried Tennessee by a record Republican margin, and Kennedy faces an uphill fight to overcome that, particularly against Goldwater.
Texas (25). Goldwater is the darling of Texas conservatives, and Texas' Republican Senator John Tower is a leader of the national Goldwater drive. But the national Democratic Administra tion has poured space-age industry into Texas, and Vice President Lyndon Johnson, although perhaps not the power he once was in Texas, is still a hard man to beat in his home state. Kenne dy could easily beat any other G.O.P. candidate--but against Barry Goldwater, he can only be rated even.
Utah (4). Mormon George Romney could probably beat Kennedy. Other Republicans, including Goldwater, presently trail the President.
Vermont (3). Any Republican could win here.
Virginia (12). With Democrat Harry Byrd sitting another one out, Goldwater would win comfortably.
Washington (9). Boeing's loss of the TFX fighter-aircraft contract and the state's loss of shipyard work to the East have irked both management and labor, could be just enough to tip the state to Goldwater.
West Virginia (7). The state is still economically depressed, despite Kennedy's federal pump priming. But no one likes to kill Santa Claus and Kennedy should win.
Wisconsin (12). Federal patronage, plus Republican factionalism and the presence on the ticket of Democratic Senator William Proxmire, one of the U.S.'s most energetic campaigners, give Kennedy a bare edge in an unpredictable state.
Wyoming (3). All the way with Goldwater.
Thus, if Texas went Democratic, Kennedy would have 280 electoral votes, ten more than the 270 needed for a majority. If Texas went for Goldwater, Barry would have 266, with an excellent chance for picking up more than the necessary additional four from among the Kennedy-hating unpledged electors of Alabama and Mississippi. In any event, it is obviously too early for Republicans to start throwing up their hands at the prospect of defeat.
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