Parts of the Whole

In a score of states, the filing deadline is past or near at hand. In others, the candidates are lining up, the pushing and pulling, the slatemaking are under way.

Throughout the U.S.. the central question about the off-year elections of 1962 is: How deeply can the Republican Party cut into Democratic majorities in Congress, the statehouses and the city halls? The present answer: the farther from Washington, the better things look.

In Washington, many Republicans are glum. They read popularity polls and see both John Kennedy and the Democratic Party riding high. They feel themselves inundated by the floodtide of publicity about the President, his family and his Administration. "We're being brainwashed with Administration propaganda," says one Capitol Hill Republican. They worry about the ideological differences between the party's middle-roaders and right-wingers. They are distressed by the image of their congressional floor leaders, Senator Everett Dirksen and Representative Charles Halleck. who appear on TV in what is known as "the Ev and Charlie show.'' Says a G.O.P. Congressman: "There's Dirksen with his fuzzy hair and Halleck with his big red nose." Most of all, Washington's Republicans are troubled by their difficulty in presenting to the rest of the nation a party message. They point to their record of responsible support for Administration foreign policy. They are pleased by the backfire of the Administration's crass political attempt to tag them as anti-city and anti-Negro in the move to establish a Department of Urban Affairs. They note that the House recently passed a Republican version of a manpower retraining bill that even Democrats conceded was far superior to the Administration bill. They strongly sense a national conservative trend--but they argue about how to take advantage of it. They fear--with reason--that the G.O.P. as a party is not projecting itself to the U.S. as a positive force.

The Brighter View. But the view from Washington is often distorted--and out where the votes are. Republican prospects seem far from hopeless. Particularly in nonpresidential election years, local personalities, issues and organization often play a more important role than national images. Moreover, the G.O.P. has been gaining since 1960. Even then, while Kennedy was winning the White House, Republicans picked up 21 House seats, two in the Senate and 290 places in state legislatures. Since then, Republicans have run strongly in elections in Pennsylvania, New York, Ohio, Michigan, Kentucky, Texas and Louisiana, suffering an unexpected setback only in New Jersey's gubernatorial contest. In November 1962, it is mathematically impossible for the G.O.P. to win control of the Senate; even if the party held all 16 G.O.P. seats at stake and took the 21 Democratic ones, the Republicans would still not have a majority. It is unlikely that the G.O.P. will pick up from Democratic incumbents the 44 seats necessary to gain control of the House. But substantive gains are a strong possibility; some top Democratic strategists say they will be satisfied if their party merely holds its own. And Republicans have high hopes of unseating sev eral Democratic Governors.

One reason for the improving G.O.P.

outlook is that in several states, young, tough Republicans, unable to look to Washington for leadership, have taken charge : > In Colorado, energetic Jean K. Tool, 42, led a revolt two years ago to become state chairman, has lifted a dispirited state organization into one that threatens Democratic Governor Stephen McNichols and Democratic Senator John Carroll. He replaced 40% of the county chairmen, has reduced the average age of district captains from the 70s to the 40s, has armed them with detailed manuals on how to win elections.

> In Oregon, Republican Governor Mark Hatfield, 39, has squelched intraparty feuding, has drawn able young men into party leadership, has demonstrated his belief that labor and academic groups can be lured to the G.O.P. by vigorously courting both.

> In Minnesota, Robert Forsythe, 40, returned from his job as an Assistant Secretary of Health, Education and Welfare in the Eisenhower Administration to be come fulltime state G.O.P. chairman, has put voting breakdowns and party membership lists on IBM cards. In one precinct-leader training conference he enlisted 150 new captains.

Across the U.S., big-city G.O.P. leaders have been stirred by the "Bliss Report." a detailed analysis written by Ohio State Chairman Ray C. Bliss of the party's failure to win elections because of poor precinct-by-precinct organization in the cities. He pointed out that Richard Nixon lost in 1960 because Republicans produced majorities in only 14 of the 41 largest cities; that these cities contain 28% of the U.S. population, and that in nearly half the states such metropolitan areas determine the outcome of statewide elections.

Stronger in the Stronghold. It is in its traditional Midwest stronghold that the Republican Party has its best chance for 1962 gains. For one thing. Midwest Republicans no longer carry the burden of Ezra Taft Benson's farm program; now it is Democrats who must carry the cross of Secretary Orville Freeman's plans: > In Nebraska, Fred Seaton, Secretary of the Interior under Eisenhower, is favored to unseat Democratic Governor Frank Morrison.

> In Ohio, State Auditor James Rhodes has a long vote-pulling record to throw against Democratic Governor Mike Di Salle, heavily plagued by tax problems.

> Rambler Maker George Romney is a fresh face to challenge Democratic Governor John Swainson in Michigan.

> In Wisconsin, where Democratic Governor Gaylord Nelson is challenging Vet eran G.O.P. Senator Alexander Wiley, Republicans hope to fill the gubernatorial void.

> In normally Republican North Dakota, Democratic Governor William Guy's position is shaky.

In the West, where Nixon won 10 of 13 states in 1960, the party is still gen erally healthy, despite spotty problems: > In Idaho, a strong Republican organization under Governor Robert Smylie is working, not only to hold the governorship, but to knock Democrat Frank Church out of the Senate. Church has been unable to bring Idaho any new starts on reclamation projects in the past two years. (The state has had at least one start every year since 1906.) > Alaska's Democratic Governor William Egan is vulnerable, since he has been caught in a sectional crossfire over moving the state capital from Juneau to the Anchorage area.

> In California, Republicans have no effective state organization, take their ideological differences seriously, and tend to feud like Democrats. Last week Dick Nixon was censured by Los Angeles Young Republicans for his demand that Republicans resign from the ultraconservative John Birch Society. In trying to defeat Democratic Governor Pat Brown, Nixon must build his own organization, win votes from thousands of registered Democrats. But, like Incumbent Republican Senator Tom Kuchel, he is given a better-than-even chance.

Adding It Up. In New England, Republicans should hold their own in Vermont, New Hampshire and Maine: > Connecticut Democrats are bringing Health, Education and Welfare Secretary Abraham Ribicoff back to run for the Senate against Incumbent Republican Prescott Bush. They hope that Ribicoff can carry with him Democratic Governor John Dempsey (four of the state's top Republicans are fighting for the right to run against Dempsey).

> In Pennsylvania, Republicans have united behind a formidable gubernatorial candidate, Representative William Scranton, 44, to run against Philadelphia's Democratic ex-Mayor Richardson Dilworth, who is warring with Representative William Green, boss of the Philadelphia Democratic organization.

> In New York, Republicans for the first time since 1955 hold more mayoralty posts than Democrats do, control 50 of 57 county boards, decisively dominate the state legislature. Despite his marital problems, Governor Nelson Rockefeller seems likely to beat any opponent, including New York City's Mayor Robert Wagner.

Thus, in Election Year 1962, the sum of the Republican parts appears better than the whole, at least as viewed from outside Washington. To be sure, the party has so far failed to codify its case against the Democratic Administration.

It has not yet been able to articulate its own national program. But state by state and district by district, its arithmetic adds up.

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