On the Beach

The economic reports that flow from the nation's banks are rarely distinguished for what Will Rogers called "plain talk-in'," often seem to have been written in a soundproof room full of adding machines. Last week readers of the monthly Business Review of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia got a pleasant surprise. In a report on "The Business Outlook," Economist John R. Bunting Jr. took off after those who believe that another recession is either on the way or inevitable. "The national mood," said Bunting, "is changing. The cycle doesn't have to repeat itself. This time, after level, why can't we go up? We can." As evidence for his thesis, Bunting quoted no experts, but instead cited interviews he had had with 75 vacationers while roaming the beach at Ocean City, N.J.

Bunting's unorthodox research began with the discovery that he was not the only one worrying about the economy while on vacation; so were the housewives, the salesmen, the lawyers he met sunbathing. They, like himself, were "vitally interested in the bigger issues of our times"; instead of light and airy conversations about adult westerns or bridge scores, he found people discussing foreign trade, economic growth, the farm problem and national purpose.

Back at his desk, Economist Bunting thought that he had learned something from well-tanned figures that black and red numbers could not tell him: "Some thing I had better say before becoming immersed again in facts and figures. I can't help feeling that what I learned on the beach is heartening. If the future does not look overly strong, neither does it appear terribly weak. If the national mood is changing and people are coming to take more interest in the big issues that surround them, then soon more realistic solutions will manifest themselves.

The spark that has been missing will return and then our cycle could read: recession, recovery, level, up." It was pretty audacious of him, though, to give away his source like that.

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