The Voice of Hope

"My aim here," wrote the Times's Dale, in the current issue of the scholarly Yale Review, "is, unabashedly, to argue that God is after all in His heaven --as much as He ever is--and that all's right with the world." Dale recognized that there are indeed real and serious world problems. But he suggested that "things are not nearly as bad as they are commonly painted in the deeper and continuing struggle, which is invariably, if somewhat uncritically, described as the most serious in which this nation has ever been engaged."

In his article, titled The Case for Optimism, Dale listed several international developments which give cause for believing that the U.S. is winning, not losing, the cold war:

P: "The government of India--partly be cause of the events in Tibet, partly because of border troubles with the Chinese, and partly because of enlightened American and Western policy--has undergone a perceptible shift in its neutralism, a shift toward the West."

P: "The one Communist state in India, Kerala, has ceased to be Communist."

P: "Iraq, whose classic and convulsive revolution, to say nothing of her geography, offered a made-in-heaven target for the new Soviet tactics, has moved progressively away from Communist influence."

P: "Egypt, the supposedly classic case of the possibilities of the Soviet economic offensive, has outlawed her Communists, has found President Nasser making sharply anti-Communist speeches."

P: "Indonesia, a land with chaos in its very bones and with a large Communist Party, has dealt a severe setback to the domestic Communists."

P: "Burma and Malaya have wiped out practically all the Communist revolutionaries that had disrupted orderly society."

P: "The French and Italian Communist Parties are at new postwar lows."

P: "With the sole exception of Guinea, not a single new African state has shown the slightest sign of wishing to be counted part of the Communist bloc."

P: "Despite the unwillingness of those who are not blind to see, the effort of the industrial non-Communist world to supply capital to the underdeveloped countries has expanded astonishingly. Britain has doubled her aid in less than three years, Germany has more than doubled hers. The United States has been giving more purely development aid, as distinct from balance-of-payment-bailout aid, than at any time before, including the era of the Marshall Plan. The Cow of public capital to the poorer part of the world is immensely greater than at any other time in history."

Said Dale of his list: "I shall not add at this point, as the alarmist school customarily does, that this is 'only a partial list,' because it is all I can think of. I have a hunch that their 'partial' lists are all they can think of too, but let that go."

Two factors, said Dale, are relevant to the cold war almost everywhere it is waged--and the U.S. has the advantage in both areas. "One," Dale wrote, "is that up to now there has not been any military disparity [between Russia and the U.S.]. Of course, the pessimistic school concedes this and talks only of the future with its 'missile gap,' etc. I shall yield them this much: If the day in fact came when the Russians had a clear-cut, visible, undoubtable military superiority, including the capacity to wipe out our deterrent with a surprise attack, there would be reason to worry. It seems to me that with every development--the Polaris submarine being the best current example--the chances of such a decisive superiority become less. In any case, it is quite clear that the attitude in the world at large up to now has been one of awe at the power possessed by both sides. There has not been any serious sign of a 'bandwagon' sentiment among neutrals or others to fall in with an obviously and inevitably superior Communist side."

Dale's second point was that the power of the Soviet economic offensive and Soviet internal economic growth, as compared to U.S. efforts, has been "grossly, absurdly overrated." His major argument: "Our form of economy, at its present stage of development, seems to have a natural tendency to grow at a rate of between 3.5% and 4% a year. This is quite sufficient to produce a rising standard of living and whatever resources for the government we feel are necessary. The Soviets may or may not continue to grow at a somewhat faster rate. But the prospects of their 'catching up' to us in total output of goods and services by 1970--or 1980 or 1990--are dim indeed. If the United States averages 4% during the present decade--and the Soviets maintain their recent pace of perhaps 6% or 7%, we shall be further ahead in total output at the end of the decade than at the beginning." In any case, Dale added, "we are growing at a satisfactory rate for our purposes"--which makes the Soviet growth rate "quite irrelevant.''

Concluded Optimist Dale: "Let us face it. Europe is vigorous and thriving, and fully with us. The Soviets have hardly made an inch in ten years in the uncommitted world, and we have made several. Perhaps we could make a few more if we would only relax, stop mourning, and keep on doing what we have been doing."

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