Monday, Jun. 20, 1960

HOW THE DEMOCRATS STAND

Four weeks before the Los Angeles convention, the battle for the Democratic presidential nomination seemed to go underground as the contenders, their aides and strategists were busier than an ant colony in their quests for delegates and deals. TIME correspondents, checking the politicians and delegates across the nation, found Jack Kennedy still well ahead despite a psychological post-summit uneasiness about his youth and lack of diplomatic experience, counted up a minimum 620 first-ballot votes for Kennedy. (Needed to win: 761.) In second place was Lyndon Johnson, with 410 1/2 votes, grounded on the rock of the Solid South. Stuart Symington (104 1/2 votes), Adlai Stevenson (41) and Hubert Humphrey (51 1/2) trailed. If the voting goes into a second ballot, Kennedy's indicated strength should carry him over the finish line with 765 1/2 votes. But if the Kennedy bandwagon should be wrecked, Stuart Symington, with widely scattered support all over the nation, probably stands to gain the most.

Alabama (29 votes): So far, 8 1/2 votes have declared for Johnson, 7 for Georgia's Richard Russell (probably ultimately for Johnson), and 1 1/2 for Symington. Kennedy can probably count at least 10 on the second ballot.

Alaska (9): Uncommitted, with 1 1/2 votes each for Johnson and Symington, 3 votes for Kennedy and 3 for Stevenson, but a voluntary unit rule could tip it either way at pre-convention caucus.

Arizona (17): Under a unit rule, 17 votes for Kennedy.

Arkansas (27): Johnson.

California (81): First ballot for Favorite Son Pat Brown. Unless there are unmistakable noises of a bandwagon, the delegates will split wide open on the second ballot, with Kennedy picking up the biggest boodle--at least 44 votes.

Colorado (21): Kennedy should get 10, Stevenson 6 to 8.

Connecticut (21): Kennedy.

Delaware (11): Johnson may take half the delegation, but Kennedymen count 5 votes.

Florida (29): Favorite Son George Smathers on the first ballot, with Johnson carrying about 20, Kennedy 5, and Symington 4 thereafter.

Georgia (33): A Dixiecrat movement to back Favorite Son Herman Talmadge is under way, but the unit rule should carry the state for Johnson.

Hawaii (9): Johnson, 3 1/2; Stevenson, 3 1/2; Kennedy, 1; Symington, 1/2 undecided, 1/2. The left-leaning labor bosses have slowed a Kennedy surge.

Idaho (13): No commitments yet, though Kennedy is the preferred choice of 15 delegates with 1/2 vote each, Johnson of 6, Symington of 3. Unit rule becomes effective on the second ballot, should throw the vote to Kennedy.

Illinois (69): The traditional split is forecast, with Chicago Mayor Richard Daley shepherding 52 delegates into the Kennedy fold, most of the downstate strays going over to Symington. Daley, boss of Cook County, should hold his two-thirds of the delegation through the second ballot; if the bandwagon breaks down, Symington will find easy pickings.

Indiana (34): All first-ballot votes for Kennedy as a result of his primary victory; perhaps 8 or 10 for Symington on the second.

Iowa (26): First-ballot bow to Governor Herschel Loveless, a Kennedy supporter and vice-presidential hopeful. On the second ballot Kennedy has a rock-bottom count of 20, Symington of 6.

Kansas (21): First-round courtesy vote for Governor George Docking. Under unit rule, Kennedy-leaning Docking could carry the state for Kennedy thereafter, though strong Symington support makes the balance close.

Kentucky (31): Johnson counts on 22 votes, Kennedy 3, Symington and Stevenson 2 or 3 apiece.

Louisiana (26): Johnson on the first ballot, though a wildcat Dixiecrat movement might change the voting order.

Maine (15): Rockbound Kennedy.

Maryland (24): Committed to Kennedy on first ballot by primary vote; Johnson and Symington could pick up a few on subsequent ballots.

Massachusetts (41): Kennedy's own.

Michigan (51): Governor G. Mennen Williams has "pledged" the state to Kennedy but the delegates are not bound to follow him, and Walter Reuther, a major power, has so far held off a formal endorsement of Kennedy. Current guess: Kennedy, 40 votes on the first ballot, the rest for Symington and Stevenson.

Minnesota (31): The delegation will go where Humphrey takes it, and best guessing is that he will climb on the Kennedy bandwagon.

Mississippi (23): Will probably wind up in Johnson's camp.

Missouri (39): Symington's home state will support him firmly.

Montana (17): Kennedy looks good for 10 on first ballot, with Symington, Stevenson and Johnson splitting the rest.

Nebraska (16): 11 for Kennedy, 5 for Symington, with the possibility of an odd 1/2 vote straying from Stu to Ohio's Frank Lausche.

Nevada (15): Sentimentally disposed to give 8 votes to Kennedy, 6 to Johnson, 1 to Symington.

New Hampshire (11): Kennedy.

New Jersey (41): Governor Robert Meyner is desperately trying to maintain his favorite-son status, but Kennedy now has at least 32 votes, may sweep the delegation by convention time.

New Mexico (17): Presumed to be Johnson's own until last fortnight's state convention, the delegation will now give at least 4 votes to Kennedy.

New York (114): The biggest and one of the iffiest states is still in a faction-torn dither, but Kennedy's impressive strength upstate and in the Roman Catholic wards of New York City transcends all local political fights, should yield him at least 90 votes. Kennedy already has the open endorsement of such powers as the Kings and Bronx County chairmen, and despite the preferences of such erstwhile kingmakers as Eleanor Roosevelt (for Stevenson), James Farley (Johnson) and Carmine De Sapio (leaning to Symington), no one else can approach Kennedy's total.

North Carolina (37): Johnson should win 32 votes, with Stevenson and Symington getting 2 apiece and Kennedy a single vote.

North Dakota (11): Kennedy.

Ohio (64): Committed to Kennedy, who took Governor Mike Di Salle into camp last January.

Oklahoma (29): Johnson.

Oregon (17): For Kennedy, by preferential primary right.

Pennsylvania (81): Symington has 6 votes and so has Kennedy, but the majority of the delegates are still awaiting a signal from Governor David Lawrence and Philadelphia Boss Bill Green. Kennedy counts 41 "probables," Johnson promises a big "surprise," and Symington hopes for Lawrence's blessing (which he may yet get).

Rhode Island (17): Kennedy.

South Carolina (21): Under a unit-rule vote, all votes go to Johnson.

South Dakota (11): Symington and Kennedy worth 4^ votes each and Johnson getting the rest.

Tennessee (33): Johnson's as long as he wants it.

Texas (61): L.B.J. all the way.

Utah (13): Kennedy, 61; Symington, 2 1/2; Johnson, i 1/2; uncommitted, 2 1/2.

Vermont (9): Kennedy.

Virginia (33): Pledged to Johnson.

Washington (27): Something for everybody, with Kennedy getting 7 1/2 votes and Stevenson 7.

West Virginia (25): Although Kennedy won the bloody primary, he has just 12 votes, with Johnson second, with 8 votes, and Symington and Stevenson sharing the rest.

Wisconsin (31): Kennedy, 20 1/2; Humphrey, 10 1/2, with powerful state leaders determined to lead most of Humphrey's strength to Kennedy on second ballot.

Wyoming (15): 6 votes committed to Kennedy, 3 leaning toward him, the rest leaning toward Johnson.

Canal Zone (4): All for Kennedy.

District of Columbia (9): 7 votes still belong to Non-Candidate Humphrey; 2 have swung to Symington.

Puerto Rico (7): Toward Kennedy.

Virgin Islands (4): For Kennedy.

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